“Blacks turning out in droves to support Obama also threw their support strongly behind Proposition 8, which would overturn the state Supreme Court decision allowing gay marriage. Opposition to the ban held a slight edge among whites, while Lations and Asians were split.”
-via AP.
Prop. 5 went down, as expected. The entire political establishment of the state protected their own failure by coming out against it en masse.
Props. 7 and 10 went down as well. Voters saw through T. Boone Pickens’ smokescreen, which is good to see. But I was surprised how easily these two were defeated. I guess when you split liberals and lose all conservatives, this is what happens.
Look, 1A, 3, 4, 8, 9 and 11 aren’t going to be decided tonight. Not only is LA not in, but Alameda County is coming in pretty late. Obama is up 58-39 and I expect that to grow as these late counties come in. But his coattails were short, and his overwhelming of the political attention gave little oxygen for other candidates and initiatives on the ballot.
AD-10: Huber behind 5,000 votes.
AD-15: Joan Buchanan up 5,000 votes. This would mean that Republicans control not a single seat in the Bay Area.
AD-26: Eisenhut down 3,600 votes.
AD-30: Gilmore (R) is up but there are almost no votes counted in this race so far.
AD-36: doesn’t look good but it’s early.
AD-78: Marty Block is up 1,600 votes.
AD-80: Manuel Perez is down less than 1,000 votes but it’s very early.
SD-19: Hannah-Beth Jackson is up 6,100 votes with 35% of the vote in.
CA-04 is extremely tight, within 1,600 votes with 55% in. CA-03 has Lungren hovering at 50%, but Durston 6 points behind. This is a great improvement on 2006 and sets this up as a key seat in 2010. CA-46 only has 39% in, but Rohrabacher is winning fairly solidly right now. CA-50 shows Bilbray up 7,000 votes on Nick Leibham, but not much is in yet.
UPDATE: CNN has called CA-46 for Rohrabacher and CA-03 for Durston. CA-03 reminds me of CA-04 last year, Lungren will end up under 50%. Bill Durston put on a very good showing despite having pretty much zero help from anybody. He has nothing to be ashamed of.
Debbie Cook just couldn’t get it done in a tough district. But she put the fear of God into Crazy Dana.
There are only 2 House races outstanding. CA-50 only has 34% in but Leibham is starting to close a bit (he’s within 7,800 votes). CA-04 is about a 2,200 vote spread for McClintock, but a lot more of that race is in (84%). Yikes.
UPDATE II: Mark Ridley-Thomas kicked Bernard Parks’ buns tonight in the race for 2nd District Supervisor in LA County. Good for him, he’s a solid progressive.
Yes on 2 passes, according to the Chronicle. Prop. 6 fails. So far, so good. Calitics is 2 for 2.
CNN has called David Dreier, Duncan Hunter and Mary Bono Mack. There are four races still up for grabs in the Congress.
Right now I see Jack Sieglock up early in AD-10, Joan Buchanan ahead in AD-15, Bill Berryhill up in AD-26, Danny Gilmore actually way up in AD-30, Linda Jones behind in AD-36, Marty Block up in AD-78, and Gary Jeandron up slightly in AD-80. These are very early numbers.
…if you’re looking at the statewide propositions, I should remind everyone that LA County has not reported anything yet. And we were hearing 80% turnout in the largest county by population in the country.
UPDATE LA Times calls Prop 7 defeated.
LA County does not turn out that heavily. In the June primary it was abysmal. But today, people wanted to be a part of history. Dean Logan, the registrar of voters, is saying that they could break the record of 81% turnout county-wide. That would be an enormous achievement, and good for progressives.
Here’s a reminder to all LA County voters: if you are in line by 8:00pm, you will be allowed to vote. That is current law and you need to make sure it is enforced. Some pollworkers may want to shoo you out, but you can vote if you’re in line by 8.
This is at one of Debbie Cook’s offices in Orange County:
You can help. There are still close to four hours until the polls close. I hear turnout is up in LA County and down a touch in Orange County. We can beat Dana Rohrabacher.
Make my election prediction come out right! This is from Debbie Cook’s campaign, via email:
We have volunteers monitoring precincts across the district, and the results look encouraging. Our voters are showing up and Republicans are just not very excited by Rohrabacher.
We need you to help phone from home now, and until the polls close at 8:00.
We need to personally call every Democrat in the district before 7:30 and get them out to vote.
Can you help?
If you can, please email debbiecookforcongress-at-gmail-dot-com and we’ll send you the simple instructions to call from home.
Joe Shaw
Communications Director
Debbie Cook for Congress
A Cook victory would be the biggest ideological shift in the entire House of Representatives. She is a Better Democrat who needs your help. Stay for Change and give Debbie Cook a hand. She will make you proud in Washington.
We’ve heard some scattered stories today. As dkirk notes in comments on the last thread, Yes on 8 is apparently using Barack Obama’s voice in a robocall:
Male Voice: Here are Barack Obama’s own words on Gay Marriage. –Then play recording of Obama response to question during debates–.
Male Voice:(Paraphrased) – Proposition 8 defines marriage as between one man and one woman, as you heard Barack Obama state. Remember to vote Yes on Prop 8.
Obama has repeatedly announced his opposition to Prop. 8. I don’t really like his splitting of the baby, that he personally opposes same-sex marriage but opposes divisive and discriminatory initiatives like Prop. 8, but let it be known that it’s the furthest any Presidential candidate has been willing to go in American history, particularly the fact that he has lent his image to ads.
The other dirty trick is reported by TPM Muckraker:
This is a message for (um) all people (um) in Pasadena. The (um) place for (uh) people in Pasadena is for you to vote at Jackie Robinson on Wednesday the 5th, November 5th. The (uh) ballot can be delivered on November 5th at Jackie Robinson.
Today is November 4th.
There’s audio at the link. I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that this comes from Yes on 8. Just a hunch. Pasadena is a pretty liberal city, and huge turnout obviously could be the difference in a lot of these races.
I’ve been following the California vote practically since November 8, 2006. It’s been incredible to see the goals and hopes of a landslide election in the Golden State on the verge of fruition. There’s been a ton of work dome by the grassroots, the local Democratic clubs, organizations like Take Back Red California and Courage Campaign and so many others, who have prepped the ground for this moment. It’s exciting to watch in real time.
But now I have to take off the hope cap and get analytical. It’s time for predictions. These are based on my own educated guesses from talking to people on the ground, following the polls, and the consequences of an expected Obama victory that will be larger than normal for the state.
First, the topline Presidential race:
Obama 59%, McCain 39%
The Field Poll had it slightly higher, but there’s usually a margin of error in there, so that’s where I think it’ll go, with the remaining 2% split among the smaller-party candidates. This would be an incredible number. John Kerry won California by 9.81%. Gore took it by about 11.8%. A 20-point victory would really throw things into chaos, especially considering all those new voters and low-information voters who may be expected to vote the Democratic ticket, but who may go in and pull the lever for just Obama and leave. Don’t Stop At The Top!
But I don’t think people will. I think Obama will have some coattails.
(For the full general election, I have Obama with 356 electoral votes and McCain with 182, and Obama receiving 52.4% of the vote to 45.8% for McCain.)
Congress: The floor is one pickup, the ceiling is six. Here’s what I’m going with:
CA-04: Pickup. Charlie Brown is going to make us proud today.
CA-50: Pickup. This one is going to be by the barest of margins, but Nick Leibham has run strong late. I think he’s going to just pull it out.
CA-46: Pickup. This would be the sweetest victory of the night outside of beating Prop. 8. Debbie Cook’s model for victory is Loretta Sanchez over B-1 Bob Dornan. I know that Cook has outworked Dana Rohrabacher on the ground, but the task is daunting. It’s a wave election, though, so I’m jumping in with both feet.
CA-03: Pickup. This is a victory that is built to last, with only a 2% advantage for Republicans in registration. Given the expected wave, I think Bill Durston has what it takes to make up that gap and beat Dan Lungren. This would also be an incredible victory – Durston had virtually no help.
CA-45: Hold. I think it’ll be close, but Mary Bono Mack will keep the seat over Julie Bornstein. Happy to be wrong on this.
CA-26: Hold. I’m hearing about late movement in this race, but it may not be quite enough to put Russ Warner over the top. Again, prove me wrong, CA-26!
The rest are holds. I’m predicting 4 pickups, leading to 38 Democratic seats and 15 Republican ones.
ASSEMBLY: The floor is 3 pickups, the ceiling is 8. I’m predicting SIX PICKUPS and a 2/3 majority in the California Assembly.
AD-80: PICKUP for Manuel Perez.
AD-78: PICKUP for Marty Block.
AD-15: PICKUP for Joan Buchanan.
AD-10: PICKUP for Alyson Huber.
AD-26: PICKUP for John Eisenhut.
AD-36: PICKUP for Linda Jones.
STATE SENATE: In the only competitive race, Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland are in a dogfight. Because it’s so high-profile, I don’t think that the wave effect will be as pronounced. It’s a toss-up, but if you put a gun to my head I’d say PICKUP.
Come back tonight and see how I did! And you can put your own predictions in the comments.
It is sadly typical of the knuckle-draggers in the California Republican Party that they picked today to file a lawsuit over Obama’s travel to Hawaii to visit Mrs. Dunham for the last time. The RNC jumped on this lawsuit filing today as well.
Turns out she passed away today. Obama took time off the campaign trail in the final weeks to say his last goodbyes. Unfortunately she could not make it to Election Day.
What a classy bunch over at the CRP offices.
RIP Madelyn Dunham.
…I should also note that the Nevada State Director of the Obama campaign died from a massive heart attack this morning at the age of just 44. Much of my volunteer efforts for Obama supported Nevada. This is also a tragic loss.
Sacha Baron Cohen has serious guts:
Disguised in a blond wig and in character as Bruno, a gay Austrian fashion reporter who’s the star of another mockumentary, The Bruno Movie Sasha Baron Cohen marched with haters demonstrators who support Proposition 8 ban on same-sex marriage at a rally across from Los Angeles’ City Hall.
Cohen who starred Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, enturbulated the Yes on 8 crowd with Bruno’s gayness until reporters and camera crews spotted him. Members of his film crew tried to shield him and “Bruno” was eventually whisked away in a van before he had to encounter real media.
Perez Hilton has some video at his site, but there’s not much to it.
Seriously, Sacha, be careful. The potential for violence is not only great, but it’s been realized to varying degrees.