All posts by Todd Beeton

Newt Gingrich Apologizes On You Tube…In Spanish

I used to think Republicans only inadvertently ended up on You Tube embarrassing themselves. Looks like they’re perfectly willing to upload themselves into cringe-inducing infamy as well.

Today, Newt Gingrich tried to make nice with the Latino community after saying this in a speech to the National Federation of Republican Women on Saturday:

“The American people believe English should be the official language of the government. . . . We should replace bilingual education with immersion in English so people learn the common language of the country and they learn the language of prosperity, not the language of living in a ghetto.”

To no one’s surprise, his remarks were met with thunderous applause.

His solution: uploading an apology to his You Tube channel. Actually he uploaded two videos. Yep, you guessed it…one of them is in Spanish w/English subtitles. (H/T Eat The Press.)

You know you want to…

In it, he regrets his poor word choice because it caused “mal sentimiento.” And he actually argues that what he’s calling for (ie the end of bi-lingual education, etc.) is an “expression of support for Latinos, not an attack on their language.” Riiiiight.

Eat The Press calls it:

all he meant to say was, hey, if you want to get ahead in this country, baby, you gotta hablo the Ingles. Not that Spanish is a language “without beauty” ’cause it’s not; on the contrary, the 45 million Latino votes in the country are beautiful, indeed.

How not to win California’s electoral votes by Newt Gingrich.

Video Blogger Josh Wolf Released From Prison

Josh Wolf, you’ll recall, is the 24-year old journalist/video-blogger who was imprisoned in August 2006 for defying a subpoena from a grand jury demanding that he hand over footage he took of a 2005 San Francisco anarchist protest during which a police officer was injured. After 7 1/2 months in prison (the record for an American journalist,) Wolf was freed today after agreeing to release the footage once a compromise was reached:

Wolf posted the uncut video on his Web site, gave prosecutors a copy and denied under oath that he knew anything about violent incidents at the July 2005 protest. In return, his lawyers said, prosecutors agreed not to summon him before the grand jury or ask him to identify any of the protesters shown on his video.

Prosecutors’ withdrawal of their demand for his testimony was the key to the deal, Wolf told reporters outside the prison gate.

“Journalists absolutely have to remain independent of law enforcement,” he said. “Otherwise, people will never trust journalists.”

You can watch the uncut video footage on his website HERE.

Signs Of An Edwards Surge In California

(cross-posted from ATM Watch also at John Edwards 08)

Over the past few weeks it's become quite evident that John Edwards is running for California…and he's running for it hard. The interesting thing about how he's doing it is that, against all conventional wisdom, he's managed to mount an inexpensive stealth campaign made up of campaign stops both conventional (rallies at colleges) and unconventional (an appearance at a Santa Monica Democratic club, a visit with Fresno farm workers and a recent Q&A with reporters in San Francisco, which I diaried with a link to video HERE) in between stops for California campaign cash.

More over the flip including some incredible new Survey USA numbers…

The latest sign that Edwards absolutely thinks California is within his grasp is the release today of the endorsement of John L. Burton, former CA Democratic congressman, assemblyman and, until 2005, president pro tem of the state senate. He is a beloved liberal who was described in the following way by The Los Angeles Journal upon his retirement in 2005:

"Gone will be the Senate's most vehement partisan for social services for the poor, the Senate's angriest voice against tax breaks for businesses and the wealthy, its loudest voice for protection of workers, its fiercest pro-labor advocate and its disciplinarian."

Sound like anyone you know?

Remarkably, Edwards's California strategy may already be paying off. According to the latest Survey USA Poll, out today, Edwards surged 7 points since the previous poll was released on March 6. Here are the numbers (3/6 results in parentheses.)

Hillary Clinton 43 (44)

Barack Obama 25 (31)

John Edwards 17 (10)

Bill Richardson 4 (4) 

That movement is pretty stunning and, I'd argue, is not attributable exclusively to the positive response of "some people" to the courage and character John and Elizabeth displayed when they announced her cancer had returned. Edwards has his eye on California all right and it's beginning to look like California just might have its eye on him.  

The Absentee Ballot Factor

(cross-posted from ATM Watch)

During Courage Campaign’s recent conference call with Debra Bowen, the Secretary of State expressed interest in expanding the number of permanent absentee voters as a means to mitigate the expected lower turnout of our June statewide primary election next year.

There's a big concern with this Feb 5 primary that we're going to see a big drop off in June. I'd like to see the state undertake a real effort to get voters who want to do so to sign up as permanent absentee voters…permanent vote by mail voters. That will mean that they will automatically get ballots for the June and November elections once they register for the February primary. We know that that system increases turnout among occasional voters and among minority voters. Some counties promote that very heavily, others don't. It's very important in a year where we could have wildly swinging turnout because of having three elections, that we take advantage of those kinds of tools.

In last year's November election, according to Capitol Weekly, absentee ballots accounted for 45% of all votes cast throughout the state, a percentage that is expected to rise to 50% in 2008. If Secretary Bowen has her way, that number could be far higher.

So what does this mean for the February 2008 primary?

Well, by California law, absentee voters can send in their ballots almost a month prior to election day. Next year, that magic date is January 7, weeks before either New Hampshire or Iowa voters will have gone to the polls.

Capitol Weekly cites another pertinent statistic:

40 percent of California's absentee voters typically cast ballots prior to a week before Election Day

If this holds true and absentee ballots do end up accounting for half of the votes cast, that could mean at least 20% of all voters in California will have voted before the results from Iowa and New Hampshire are known. In other words, considering the growing number of absentee voters in the state, a February 5 primary could actually mean that Iowa and New Hampshire have less impact on the outcome of California's election, not more as some have argued.

Traditionally, of course, the results in the early states tend to be momentum-generating, think of John Kerry after his Iowa win in 2004 or George W. Bush after South Carolina in 2000. Next year, there just may be a good number of California voters whose choice will be untainted by those that came before, a number, which actually could exceed the voting populations of New Hampshire and Iowa combined.

Term Limits Plan B: Take It To The CA Supreme Court

As juls diaried here, the latest PPIC poll shows support for changing the current term limits law to Nunez’s prefered 12 years in either house or combo thereof plan at just 31%. Juls is rightly skeptical of that number yet it appears that the powers that be are taking it quite seriously indeed. In fact it looks like they’re already plotting plan B: challenging the term limits law in court.

First a little history. In 1990, CA voters, by a margin of 52-48%, passed Prop 140, which limited legislative service in the Assembly to six years (three terms) and Senate to eight years (two terms.) In 1991, the CA Supreme Court upheld the law as constitutional.

More…

Chief Justice Malcolm Lucas, writing for the majority, said any value in retaining incumbents in office was outweighed by “the state’s strong interest in protecting against an entrenched, dynastic legislative bureaucracy.”

Well, Justice Lucas and others who voted with him in 1991 are no longer on the court, and Sen. Ron Calderon (D-Montebello), who is the senate’s lead man on term limit and redistricting reform, sees an opportunity to challenge the law in the courts anew rather than rely on a finicky public.

Calderon said he has been consulting with lawyers and other legislators and believes Proposition 140…could be challenged by a termed-out legislator.

“I would prefer to do that and let the court decide,” Calderon said, conceding voters are unlikely to overturn the law.

It’s unclear how term limits would fare if they were to make it to the CA Supreme Court. On one hand, there’s traditionally a deference paid to settled law. On the other hand, reversing term limit laws seems to be all the rage.

State supreme courts in four states — Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming — threw out the laws. Two other states — Idaho and Utah — have repealed their term-limit laws.

One question I’d have is whether Calderon sees the CA Supreme Court repealing term limits altogether or mandating some sort of legislative remedy. Because if the choice becomes between passing term limit reform next February or no term limits at all, then term limit supporters may just want to get behind the initiative. If Calderon has his way, the status quo may actually not be viable despite the fact that those voting NO next February will be voting for just that.

Speaker Fabian Nunez Helps Launch ATM Watch

It’s official, Courage Campaign’s ATM Watch is live! With the help of Speaker Fabian Nunez, we’ve launched ATMWatch.org where all our blog posts and videos are aggregated and where there’s an opportunity for everyone to get in on the act.

  • What issues are on your mind? Ask the candidates a question HERE and we’ll get the questions to the candidates.
  • Have you seen a candidate and want to tell us about your experience? Blog it in our ATM Watch group HERE.
  • And of course, read the comings and goings of the candidates as they traverse California on the blog HERE. We update it every Friday.

Our goal is to start a dialogue between the candidates and every day Californians. In the coming months, we’ll be bringing you more live reports (which we’d like to be largely user-generated) and even video responses from the candidates and maybe even a townhall forum or two to really get the candidates in front of California voters. Gone are the days when California is merely an ATM for presidential candidates.

California Election Protection Roundup

There’s a lot going on in election protection these days. I know for many the issue cooled once Debra Bowen was elected Secretary of State but while we can certainly breathe more easily now, there’s still plenty of work yet to be done.

  • Thanks again to Debra Bowen for headlining our public conference call earlier this month to discuss matters of election protection. If you missed it you can hear the entire thing HERE. And if this issue is of particular interest to you, please join our Election Protection California – Ask Debra Bowen group, which Debra Bowen’s office will be monitoring to gauge voters’ concerns.

Join me over the flip for a couple of updates from BradBlog whose new site design is mercifully, a lot less green.

  • Thanks to BradBlog for the heads up that this Friday, Harri Hursti of Hursti Hack fame will be appearing at Palm Desert City Hall council chambers for a public hearing where he will discuss, among other things:

    issues of how an electronic voting (e-voting) system may be undetectably compromised and vote totals easily modified to completely change the outcome of the election. He will discuss how the “Red Team”/”Blue Team” approach of security hack testing of systems, as newly proposed last week by Secretary of State Debra Bowen would work in testing the Sequoia Edge II equipment now in use in Riverside County.

    The hearing is Friday, March 30 at 9am at 73-510 Fred Waring Drive, PALM DESERT, CA 92260-2524.

  • Gee, what a shocker, looks like the voting irregularity lawsuit filed down in CA-50 has been thrown out by an appeals court for being “moot” since Billbray has been serving in Congress for six months.
  • Speaking of CA-50, remember the ridiculously partisan San Diego County registrar of voters, Mikel Haas. He got promoted.

If You Haven’t Canceled Your L.A. Times Subscription Yet…

…um, what are you waiting for?

Unless you read the Hollywood trade magazines or frequent local L.A. blogs, you’ve probably missed the latest drama over at the Times, the so-called Grazergate, and for that you should feel lucky. It’s a pretty localized story that merges big media and big Hollywood and I wouldn’t have even bothered you with it if it hadn’t have been for the latest wrinkle that’s reportedly been thrown into the mix, name of Donald Rumsfeld.

Join me over the flip…

The L.A. Times has certainly not been free from controversy over the past few months. It was only October that The Tribune Company, which owns The Times, replaced publisher Jeffrey Johnson with David D. Hiller when Johnson openly defied mandated cuts from corporate bosses (as did popular editor Dean Baquet who was similarly forced out just a month later.) Since taking over as publisher, it would seem Hiller is not exactly making new friends at the paper. He had an idea: bring on selected guest editors of the Sunday editorial page, called Sunday Current. Sunday’s edition was to be guest-edited by Hollywood producer Brian Grazer (A Beautiful Mind, The Grinch…)

Yeah well, that didn’t happen. Why’s that you ask? Here’s a little rundown:

[L.A. Times Editorial page editor, Andres] Martinez resigned in pique after The Times publisher, David D. Hiller, told him  he couldn't go forward with a Current section that was being guest-edited by  Hollywood producer Brian Grazer. Hiller intervened when it was learned that  Martinez has been dating a Hollywood publicist whose firm represents the  producer. In fact, the agency obtained Grazer's business after Martinez's  girlfriend's boss facilitated the arrangement between the producer and The  Times.

Martinez denies any wrongdoing and even Hiller concedes that his dropping Grazer was to avoid the "perception" of any conflict of interest. As you might expect, Martinez is pissed. So what does he do? Spout off to local blog L.A Observed, of course. His latest revelation, which could make Grazergate look like small potatoes indeed, is that Donald Rumsfeld may be tapped as the next Current guest editor. At the very least, it’s clear that Hiller asked Rumsfeld to come on by and guest edit the section, because, well, they’re old pals, you see.

Nikki Finke has the scoop over at HuffPo:

I'm told that Donald Rumsfeld was asked to guest-edit the newspaper's "Current" opinion section which appears on Sundays. The ex-Defense Secretary is a long-time personal and professional friend of LA Times publisher David Hiller, who supervises the paper's editorial, Op-Ed and opinion pages. Rumsfeld also has strong ties to the LA Times' parent company since he was a member of Tribune Co.'s board of directors for years. Sources tell me that Rumsfeld's selection was suggested and approved by Hiller.

As I was composing this post, I found this report that in fact, wisely, the Current guest-editor experiment of 2007 has been quashed. At least something good came out of Grazergate.

But seriously, does it even matter? Apparently at some point in time the publisher of The LA Times thought it would be a good idea for the former Defense Secretary to guest-edit an editorial page that one has every right to expect would address the war policies put in place by said Defense Secretary and which might very well weigh in on his former boss’s administration, whose reputation it’s completely in said Defense Secretary’s interest (and apparently, power) to redeem via said editorial page. Seriously, are you kiddin’ me?

Now about that subscription…

ATM Watch: Is Hillary Losing Support in Silicon Valley?

(cross-posted from The Courage Campaign)

So says today’s Wall St. Journal.

This is Clinton-Gore country — or it was once. Now, several of former President Bill Clinton’s earliest and biggest fund-raisers — such as Sandy Robertson, founder of investment bank Robertson Stephens and a partner at technology buyout firm Francisco Partners; and Steve Westly, an ex-eBay Inc. executive and former controller for California — have defected to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

The article cites several reasons for this movement away from Sen. Clinton, including fears that she is too ideologically rigid for their pro-business sensibilities, that she comes off as too “cold and calculating” to be electable and that Obama appeals much more to the newly wealthy under-35 Silicon Valley contingent.

More over the flip…

But interestingly, while many pro-business Silicon Valley Democrats have reservations about Clinton because they fear she will govern from too far to the left (umm, huh?), they seem to give Obama, clearly a more liberal Senator, a pass.

Sen. Obama’s supporters acknowledge their candidate is largely untested on policy matters, and there is no certainty that he would be more conservative than Sen. Clinton on health care, tort reform or fiscal policy. It is his persona, they say, that is generating excitement.

“No one’s calling me about Barack’s stands on business or tech issues,” says John Roos, the Obama point man in Silicon Valley and chief executive of the law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. “This is a phenomenon of a … leader of a new generation who has the potential to bring this country together.”

In other words, as Frederick Baron, a lawyer and Obama fund-raiser who spent two years in the Clinton Justice Department, says:

“In the lexicon of high tech, Barack Obama is the next-generation solution.”

I guess we can add ideology to the list of barriers Obama transcends.

This does not mean, however, that we should be crying for Senator Clinton quite yet. She’s managed to build a whole new Silicon Valley base among female tech executives and despite the flight of some high profile Hollywood fundraisers to the Obama camp, she managed to raise $2.6 million at a gala event at the Beverly Hills home of supermarket magnate Ron Burkle on Saturday.

And then there’s Ron Brownstein’s editorial in yesterday’s L.A. Times, which argues that Obama’s appeal among upscale educated voters makes him the latest in a long line of Democratic losers who have had upscale appeal — Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Bill Bradley, among them. For while Hillary may lose some of the upscale vote to Obama, there are no signs that he is making any inroads among the much more crucial Democratic constituency of blue collar voters. And certainly, while Obama’s appeal among African American voters is making him more competitive with Clinton than his predecesors would have been, Brownstein sees a trend that is in danger of cementing:

Among whites, Clinton so far is showing broader reach. She’s competitive upscale and dominating downscale, a combination that allows her to lead Obama in most early polls. In the latest nationwide Gallup survey, for instance, Obama led Clinton by 3 percentage points among white, college-educated Democrats, but she bested him by 23 points among whites without college degrees, and she led overall.

Could this discrepancy be due to the likelihood that more educated voters are by definition going to be more engaged politically at this early stage and thus more likely to be aware of Senator Obama? Perhaps it’s just a name recognition thing?

Could be. But Brownstein makes a compelling case that Senator Clinton’s blue collar appeal is what is driving her strength in polls throughout the country. So, how does Obama’s gaining on Clinton in Silicon Valley play into this dynamic? Certainly it is good news for fundraising, but it only reinforces this trend.

As Brownstein says:

Since Obama entered the campaign, the question he’s faced most often is whether he is “black enough” to win votes from African Americans. But the more relevant issue may be whether Obama is “blue enough” to increase his support among blue-collar whites.

ATM Watch: On Getting Back From The Government What We Give

(cross-posted from The Courage Campaign)

One of the arguments for moving the presidential primary up was to give California more leverage in demanding that the federal tax dollars we send to Washington come back to us in a more equitable manner. Russell Goldsmith breaks down the current situation California finds itself in over at HuffPo:

California gets shortchanged when federal tax dollars are at stake. In 2003, according to the non-partisan California Institute for Federal Policy research, Californians sent $50 billion more to Washington in federal taxes than the state received in federal expenditures. That means that for every dollar you paid to the Internal Revenue Service, only 79 cents found its way back to California in the form of federal programs and expenditures.

If I'm doing my math right, that means that the $50 billion we're getting shortchanged represents the remaining 21 cents on the dollar that we pay out. Imagine what even gaining 5 cents more on the dollar would mean…more than $10 billion a year that could go toward our schools, roads, prisons! As it is, a full 44 states get a better deal than we do including, no surprise, Texas, which gets a return of 92 cents to the dollar back.

More…

So now that we've moved our primary, what's being done about getting us a fair return on our tax dollar? All week, members of the Assembly, Democrats and Republicans, have been in Washington DC to lobby our newly in control senators and Congressional appropriations committee members (of whom California has 5.) Indeed, such a trip has not taken place in 5 years. 

In a press conference, assembly members including Speaker Nunez, cited the incarceration of illegal immigrants and investment in alternative energy as targets for increased spending.

Nuñez and Mike Villines of Fresno, the Republican leader in the Assembly, said one prime topic with members of Congress was to increase funding for the incarceration of illegal immigrants, which costs the state about $750 million a year. Currently, federal reimbursement covers about a third of that.

[snip] 

Legislators also pushed for more federal money for the research and development of alternative fuels, saying that would boost California businesses.

But is this renewed advocacy a function of an earlier primary date or merely of a newly Democratic majority in Washington, one that may be more receptive to throwing increased funding a big blue state's way?

That's a good question. Upon the Assembly's passage of the measure, Speaker Nunez said that early primary state South Carolina gets $1.35 on the dollar back from Washington. But as George Skelton tells us in his column today, the earliest primary state of all, New Hampshire, gets back only 65 cents to the dollar. Skelton makes the case that the amount a state gets back isn't about political heft, rather it is a function of demographics.

Pretty simple. California is a relatively youthful state, so there are fewer Social Security and Medicare payments, per capita. It's also a prosperous state, so there are higher income tax payments — and, on average, fewer welfare checks and Medicaid reimbursements (Medi-Cal in California) than elsewhere. 

And as for the reason for New Hampshire's raw deal:

That's because it has even less poverty and more per-capita wealth than California.

Skelton cites the California Institute for Federal Policy Research as the source for his numbers and quotes its executive director Tim Ransdall to back up his point:

"We are doomed to be a donor state," he says. "The question is, how much is OK. When does it become too much?

The large majority of the deficit is structural. Demographics. Just a fact of life."

So Skelton's message is a positive one ultimately: we're getting screwed because we're youthful, prosperous and have averted any major disasters! But isn't the idea that who gets elected to the highest positions in our government has NOTHING to do with the money a state gets back from the government a little naive? After all, as Russell Goldsmith tells us of Dick Cheney's home state:

About a year ago, I visited Jackson, Wyoming, where the vice president lives. While I was there, I learned that the state had just received $4 million in federal funds for some "badly needed" bike paths! Now, Jackson is home to some 8,500 people, so Uncle Sam's gift comes to about $500 per person in a town where animals outnumber residents by at least two to one. For a bike path. In a state with no state income tax. 

That doesn't make sense. Neither does Wyoming's share of federal money for homeland security. Until recently, it was seven times per capita bigger than California's, even though our state is home to some of America's most important–and vulnerable–economic assets.

Goldsmith absolutely sees a correlation and indeed calls on all of us to use our newfound attention from the presidential candidates to demand that they not only address California's issues, but commit to funding them.

Over the next two years, the presidential candidates of both parties will hold rallies, shake hands and raise lots of money here in California. The process has already begun. We Californians must take these opportunities to address not only the important issues we care about as Americans–from the environment to the economy to the war in Iraq–but also to the critical issues that significantly affect California but are neglected by the federal government–especially the costs and challenges of illegal immigration, homeland security, health care, transportation and the piracy of intellectual property. Candidates for president, as well as the U.S. Senate and House, should be held to account for their views on fairly funding these important challenges facing California that are appropriately federal responsibilities.

This is exactly what our ATM Watch series hopes to accomplish, and you can help. GO HERE and let us know what issues are important to you and we'll get the message to the campaigns. Also, join the ATM Watch group HERE and blog about your experiences with the candidates. Are they addressing the issues most important to California?

Our campaign contributions aren't the only things that leave the state never to return. Getting our fair share of federal tax money can be a huge factor in improving our state's fiscal health and we should use our newfound access to the candidates to lobby for just that.