All posts by Brian Leubitz

Odds and Ends

The Clock is ticking, there’s tons of stuff going on, and I’m sick. Yuck.  But what can you do?  So, teasers: POLLS  on the props, Clinton across California, Charlie Brown stands up to Doolittle, Arnold Schwarzenegger has taken lots of special interest money, and The OC GOP is F’d, seriously, f’d up.

And more…see the extended.

  • Debra Bowen has some new radio ads
  • The Clinton campaign chronicles
    • The SF Chronicle notes that Bill’s support is incredibly valuable to the Prop 87 campaign.
    • SNTP has pics of Bill Clinton’s GOTV rally in Stockton.
    • The Stockton Record said over 1,000 people waited in the rain to see the Big Dog.
  • BlackBoxVoting has uncovered a way to vote multiple times. Oh yeah, these machines are in use in California, and McPherson doesn’t think the voting machines are a problem. Sure, Bruce, sure.
  • Arnold has now raised over $113 million.   Wow, for somebody who can’t be bought, the special interests have sure put a big down payment on purchasing Arnold.
  • Field Poll (PDF)   released their data on Props 85, 86, 87, and 90: 3.5% MoE
    • Prop 85 is slightly ahead, but within the MoE: 46% Yes, 43% No,  11% undecided
    • Prop 86 is tied: 45% Yes, 45% No, 10% Undecided
    • Prop 87 is slightly behind: 40% Yes, 44% No, 16% Undecided
    • Prop 90 is slightly behind: 35% Yes, 42% No, 23% undecided.
    • Hopefully some of those undecideds on 90 will be swayed by Arnold’s rejection of Prop 90.
  • Also, the new Datamar poll (PDF) is out.  Again, take this one with a BIG grain of salt. Heck, they insist repeatedly that the DiFi race is closer than the governor’s race.  Sorry, but something is wrong with your LV model. Seriously wrong
    • Gov: Arnold leads Phil 53-36
    • Senator: DiFi leads Dick “Pray for Me” Mountjoy 53-38
    • Bonds:
      • 1A (I know not a bond, but a bad budgeting amendment) leads 57-27
      • 1B(Transportation) and 1E (Disaster Preparedness) are comfortably ahead, 1C (Housing) and 1D (Schools) are struggling.
    • Other Props:
      • 83 (Jessica’s Law), 84(Parks and Water Bonds) comfortably ahead, 88 (Parcel tax), 89 (Clean Money) are behind
      • 85 (Parental Notification), 86 (Health Care), 87 (Alternative energy) are too close to call
      • Prop 90 has a small lead, down a lot form Datamar’s last poll. (46 Yes – 41 No)  Still folks, this one is still too close.  However, this is likely before Arnold’s rejection of Prop 90.
  • The Clean Money Election Folks are having a bus tour around the state.  This is a real opportunity, no matter what the crazy Datamar poll says. Clean Money will increase the strength of people-powered politicians.  In the new system, rich people won’t have more power than anybody else.  Clean money works (see Arizona and Maine). Schedule here.
  • CA-04: Brown said that the war was wrong in 2004 , and somehow that’s attack on the troops? Direct quote from a Doolittle commercial: “When troops are under fire, there is no difference between supporting the troops and supporting their mission.” Really, so people at home should never question our leaders when they go to war?  Sure, Doolittle sends his proxy to do that.  You see, Doolittle can’t really attack a 26-year veteran, as he didn’t serve at all.  The notion that Brown is somehow unpatriotic for questioning our leaders is preposterous.  Real patriotism is using our democracy to find the best policy.  We need to protect our troops from leaders like Cheney and Doolittle who avoided service yet criticize others who have served.
  • The Hoover poll (via CA Majority Report) shows all Dems ahead, except Phil and Cruz.  However, there are some super scary numbers in there about the props. 90 appears to be far ahead, but the question on these polls becomes really important, and I’m not convinced of any of these numbers.  I really don’t think anybody has an idea of where the props are.
  • How very GOP of Mike Carona: He’s demoting his primary challenger, Bill Hunt, for criticizing him during the election and talking to the media.  Oh, and Carona also demoted two other deputies that supported Hunt. So, that’s not protected speech how?
  • The OC GOP doesn’t like Arabs…or Cynthia McKinney. (LAT)
  • Prop 90: In ten years, 2 homes have been taken in Bay area

    Prop 90, which was recently publicly rejected by Arnold Schwarzenegger, uses the name “Protect Our Homes”.  Well, so a good question would be: How many homes have been taken by eminent domain? Well, here are some answers to that question:

    Bay Area governments have very rarely used powers of eminent domain to seize private homes and turn them over to developers over the last decade, according to a Chronicle survey of every local agency that does such projects.

    Only two owner-occupied homes have been acquired by governments using eminent domain for redevelopment over the last 10 years, local officials reported. Officials razed one to build an apartment complex in Concord and the other to help make room for a new downtown in Pleasant Hill.
    {snip}
    The Chronicle’s survey findings mirror the results of a recent California Redevelopment Association survey of most of the state’s 386 redevelopment agencies. It found that between 2000 and the end of 2004, eminent domain was initiated in the purchase of 28 owner-occupied homes.

    Of course, the No on 90 spokesman, Kevin Spillane, says that those numbers are all lies.  You know, because the government always lies and stuff.  The fact is that “Protect Our Homes” will do nothing of the sort.  Rather it will protect developers as they want to pillage our open spaces as they have done in Oregon, where the voters now want to rid themselves  of this albatross. In Portland, the city planners are desperately trying to protect the open space around the city.

    The fact is that Prop 90 is just a bad law.

    Odds and Ends 11/01

    So, Halloween in the Castro was pretty crazy, huh? I went home around 9 after eating at a local establishment.  Aparently, 10 people were shot shortly thereafter.  That puts a damper on your party.

    Teasers: Arnold Schwarzenegger, polls, sexual harassment, Prop 90, a power struggle in the Assembly Minority,  Richard Pombo attacks small businesses, Pg&e in Davis, and more!

  • CA-Gov: First of all, the final Field Poll (PDF) for the gov racecame out today. It shows Arnold leading by sixteen points(49-33).  But folks, now is no time for despair.  Listen, there are a lot of doors to be knocked, a lot of phones to call.
    • For some inspiration, see this GovPhil post. It’s always more rewarding to win as an underdog.
    • Frank at CPR has some more inspiration, and takes heart from some of the numbers in the poll.
    • Steve Maviglio points out that Arnold is still under 50%. There is no statement in these polls, only mixed messages.  Voters are not particuarly thrilled by either candidate.  But when they actually understand how great Phil is on the issues they’ll be more excited.
  • Let’s not forget that Arnold is still a serial harasser of women.  Uprising Radio hasn’t forgotten.
  • As we mentioned yesterday, Arnold opposes Prop 90.
  • Peter Schrag wonders who exactly will we get with Arnold, Term 2.
  • CA-AG: For a race that isn’t particularly close, the AG race is getting pretty nasty.
  • Over at California Majority Report, they are reporting on rumors that Mike Villines of Fresno is trying to topple George Plescia as Assembky Minority Leader.  Yikes, that man is extremely conservative.
  • In the San Jose mayoral race, the ethics charges are flying back and forth.
  • CA-11: Pombo was against burdensome regulations before he was for them. (Say No To Pombo)
  • Way too much money in the Controller’s race.  The opinion, my own.  The facts, Ventura Star.
  • PG&E is pressing its case against public power in Davis.  Hard. Very hard.
  • Hey, did I mention that Bill Clinton will be in CA today?
  • The travels of Bill Clinton, SF and Stockton

    As I mentioned over the weekend, Bill Clinton will be in San Francisco this afternoon at 5 pm to campaign for Prop 8. You can get more info and tickets here

    But, some more exciting news.  Bill will be campaigning for Jerry McNerney in Stockton tonight at 9PM.  I know it’s kinda late for a political rally, but you know what, it’s timed perfectly for a live shot on the evening news.

    Laura Bush, the Bush without ~60% disappoval ratings, will be in the Sacto area today to campaign for Pombo and Doolittle.  These two critters are running scared.  So, if you can make it to Stockton, please, please, please do so.  You can get more information on Jerry’s site or at this dKos diary.

    WHO: President Bill Clinton, Jerry McNerney, nominee for Congress from California’s 11th Congressional District, Democratic candidates for local, state, and federal office 

    WHAT: Public Endorsement and Democratic Get Out the Vote Rally

    WHERE:Stockton Jet Center, 6364 South Lindbergh Street, Stockton, CA 

    WHEN: Wednesday, November 1, 2006, 9:00 p.m. 

    HOW: Individuals are strongly encouraged to pre-register here. Individuals who pre-register will be provided with an electronic ticket and VIP admission. 

    Some news on the down ballot races

  • A video from Debra Bowen’s campaign.  Quite humorous while staying relevant.
  • Bill Clinton will be in the state campaigning for Prop 87.  There is a chance he might do some campaigning for John Garamendi as well.  If you can give any $$, they could really use them to help defeat Tom McClintock. Here is their ActBlue page. McClintock is really a beachhead for the conservative movement in California. He has received scores of 0 from the Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters.  He is ferverently anti-choice and anti-stem cell.  In the end, he is way out of line with CA values.  He’s somebody that actually makes Arnold actually look moderate by comparison.  No really, McClintock is truly far to the right of even Arnold 2.0, the right-winger.
  • Intuit is trying to buy the controller’s race.  They don’t like John Chiang, because he wants to help the people of the state by making filing your state taxes easier.  ReadyReturn would hurt Intuit’s TurboTax program sales, so Intuit has dumped a million bucks into the race.  Pay to play baby, that’s the way they like it in Sacto. (Hint, hint, Yes on 89)
  • Arnold says No on 90!

    It seems Arnold Schwarzenegger has gotten one right (from SF Chronicle Blog, h/t EFSully).  Today Arnold has sent a letter to the media stating his opposition of Proposition 90.  It seems it dawned on him that there is an election a week from today and perhaps he should look at the ballot.

    The full text of the letter is on the flip, but suffice it to say that he finally came to the conclusion that Prop 90 would make implimentation of Don Perata’s bond package impossible.  It would create massive loopholes that would decimate environmental litigation and create massive giveaways for land speculators.

    For once, Arnold got it right.  But hey, don’t think I’m going soft here Arnie.  Why don’t you take a look at what jessica’s law really says, and then get back to me about whether that’s a good idea. You know, like your special election “good ideas”.

    Private property rights are a foundation upon which this country was built — a vital piece of the American dream and the United States Constitution. That’s why I, like so many Americans, was disappointed by last year’s U.S. Supreme Court decision reaffirming the right of a city in Connecticut to condemn a private home for the sole purpose of economic development. The Court also reaffirmed the role of individual state and local Legislatures to establish policies governing how eminent domain is carried out for “public use.”

    To protect California property owners, I signed legislation this year that provides added safeguards for our homeowners and small businesses and further restricts how eminent domain is used for re-development. And I am committed to working with the Legislature to do even more.

    On November 7, California voters will have an opportunity to vote on Proposition 90. I have carefully analyzed this measure, however, and have come to the conclusion I cannot support Prop 90. Let me tell you why.

    The proponents of Prop 90 added provisions that I believe will undermine basic government laws that protect our home values, safeguard our environment and allow for the building of safe roads, schools and other essential infrastructure. According to a variety of independent fiscal analyses, some provisions in Proposition 90 threaten to increase costs for taxpayers by billions of dollars each year.

    That’s why Proposition 90 has attracted opposition from a unique coalition that includes property rights advocates, taxpayer watchdogs, farmers, environmentalists, police and fire officials, small businesses and homeowner groups. Some 50 California newspapers have also come out against this ill-advised initiative.

    Proposition 90 would change our state constitution to allow any landowner, business or enterprising trial lawyer to sue the government and its taxpayers any time a state or local agency passes a law that someone claims has resulted in “substantial economic loss” to their property.

    The measure is so broad and poorly drafted that I fear it will result in a barrage of frivolous lawsuits from individuals and property owners who claim the most rudimentary new laws have caused them economic harm.

    Its provisions would allow lawsuits and potential payouts of taxpayer dollars over new laws and regulations intended to protect open space and the environment; laws and regulations intended to protect consumers; and laws and regulations designed to restrict undesirable businesses in our neighborhoods.

    In Oregon, where a similar measure was passed in 2004, more than 2,600 claims have been filed seeking more than $6 billion in compensation. Many of these claims are unfounded and from speculators simply looking to cash in on the public’s dime.

    Rebuilding our schools, roads, levees and housing is a critical priority of my administration. Unfortunately, Proposition 90 also includes language that would make rebuilding our system or public infrastructure prohibitively expensive. When agencies must acquire property to build vital public works projects, current law provides for just compensation based on fair market value of the property. Proposition 90 makes changes to this system that would require inflated payments, at taxpayer expenses.

    For these reasons, while I can sympathize with the intent of those who support Prop 90, I have no choice but to oppose this initiative.

    Halloween Odds and Ends

    First, my condolences to the family of Assemblywoman Karen Bass (D-LA), who lost her daughter and son-in-law in a car accident on the 405.  The family will be in our thoughts. No good segway here, sorry.

    Teasers: Arnold Schwarzenegger’s staff living large on the lobbyist dime, Prop 90, Jessica’s law makes us less safe, Crazy Tom McClintock, the CCPOA, and more!

  • Arnold’s staff is still taking gifts from lobbyists. This comes after Arnold told them no more gifts, yet they have still taken tickets to Giants games, Kings games, Disneyland, and the Rolling Stones.  Additionally, Susan Kennedy (ex-Dem) sent out a letter saying no more gifts, yet she seems to be overlooking that in favor of a trip to a 5-star Resort in Buenos Aires. C’mon Susan, we know you’ve filled up on all your tricks on hard-working Californians, now you think you get to take all the treats from the Lobbyists.  Wrong…as the saying goes, i suppose the California population is now smelling your feet.
  • All that stuff about Arnold becoming more green.  Well, if by green you mean that Grinch look that Reagan had as he robbed from the poor to feed the rich in the 80s, you are right! Arnold thinks he is Reagan’s heir. Oh, great that’s just what we need.
  • Looks like Arnold’s plans to ship off our excess prisoners to private facilities has hit a snag.  And by snag I mean the CCPOA.
  • For some reason, people are choosing to ignore the fact that McClintock is nuts because he displays his insanity to your face.
  • A third party candidate forum: Oh great, they’re giving two racists a forum, and oh, Peter Camejo is degrading himself to appear on the same stage with those two.
  • Dan Weintraub hits the nail on the head, Prop 83 will make us less safe.  But, as he said, it sure sells well.  Unfortunately, Weintraub tells the tale of Iowa which will  likely have to repeal the law. It pushes offenders farther away from services, making a reintigration into society nearly impossible.
  • Some good dKos posts
  • Some Prop 85 resources
  • New Polls in CA-04, CA-11: Good News

    Constituent Dynamics has released their latest batch of “Majority Watch” polls, which include CA-04 and CA-11.  Some great news here, Jerry McNernery is leading Richard Pombo 48-46.  Of course, this is within the margin of error, but it once again shows how endgangered Pombo really is.  As far as I know, this is the only independent poll of the district, and it is doubtful that any more will come out.

    As for CA-04, John Doolittle is leading Charlie Brown very slightly, 49-46.  Again, this is within the margin of error.  This is a tough district for Dems, as Bush garnered 61% of the vote in 2004.  However, Brown has managed to make it a very tight battle.  Additionally, I have been told that Brown has a great level of volunteer support.  However, I’m sure that additional volunteers are always needed. 

    What to do about Ellen Tauscher?

    So, just in case you missed this one, Ellen Tauscher has sparked a bit of a war against progressives by attackiing the left in the New York Times:

    Representative Ellen O. Tauscher of California, a co-chairwoman of the 47-member New Democrat Coalition, said that 27 of the top 40 contested House seats were being pursued by Democrats who have pledged to become members of the group, which says its chief issues are national security and fiscal responsibility.

    “I think there’s tremendous agreement and awareness that getting the majority and running over the left cliff is what our Republican opponents would dearly love,” Ms. Tauscher said, adding that this was something “we’ve got to fight.” (New York Times 10/30/06)

    So, the gauntlet has been thrown down.  Over at MyDD, the talk of a primary challenge has already begun. To be honest, I’m not sure if a primary challenge would have a huge chance of success, but I suppose that’s what people said about Lamont too. But if we are going to get somebody to run, we need to start immediately after the election.

    Does anybody around here have much of an opinion on this? Let me know if you do.