All posts by Brian Leubitz

Arnold fundraisers

A few interesting fundraisers for Arnold Schwarzenegger fundraisers:

  • Tonight: A fabulous fundraiser with Sean Hannity in Sacramento.  Wow, that will be great.  So, Arnold is a moderate, huh? Then why the right-wing talk show hosts?
  • Nov. 1: Sony Pictures Studios.  The Price has been SLASHED from $500 to $250, featuring some well C-List celebs like Jim Belushi (John is the funny one…well he was)
  • Do you peeps know of any other funny fundraisers?

    Odds & Ends 10/26

    (The entire $650K of the Sacto ad buy will be going for Pombo. They must have some nasty polling. We can win this one. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

    Lots of goings on.  The new PPIC poll came out.  Bill Carrick thinks the likely voter model is overly generous to the GOP.

    More teasers: Phil Angelides, John Chiang, Nicole Parra, The Bonds, NRCC getting desperate and more.

  • The NRCC is getting really, really worried about CA-11 and CA-04.  They took out a $650K ad buy in Sacramento.  That buys a lot of ads in Sacramento.  It’s not clear how much money is going to either candidate, but to be sinking so much money in these 2 districts this late in the game, indicates that they are scared.  Really scared.
  • Phil Angelides has released a new ad.  Check it out on his video page. It’s actually a pretty good ad, and it hits on the “good ideas” theme.  Not bad… It’s a statewide ad buy. 
  • CA-Gov: PPIC Poll pretty much holds steady, shows Schwarzenegger up by 18 points. Carrick says the poll is “weird” and “wrong”. It’s a slow and static look at the electorate. Carrick thinks their likely voter is a bit screwey. The Angelides people think the lead is smaller, more in line with the Rasmussen poll.
  • Speaking of that PPIC Poll, there are some numbers on the bonds on there.  I’ve said in the past that I think at least two of the the bonds will fail, and I was actually talking only about 1B-1E.  I actually think 84 will likely fail as well.  I think this year will be a really bad year for propositions in general.  People are really sick of voting on propositions, and will likely just end up voting no on most of the props.  Well, that’s my hunch anyway.  So, without further blabber, here are those bond #s:

    Prop. 1B (Transportation-$19.9b)
    Yes: 51%
    No: 38%
    Prop. 1C (Housing-$2.8b)
    Yes: 56%
    No: 34%
    Prop. 1D (Education-$10.4b)
    Yes: 51%
    No: 39%
    Prop. 1E (Levees/Flood-$4.09b)
    Yes: 53%
    No: 36%
    Prop. 84 (Water/Parks-$5.4b)
    Yes: 42%
    No: 43%

  • Intuit is trying to buy itself some friends.  This time in the controller’s office.  Intuit, it seems, does not like when state governments do stuff, like provide services for free that it wants to sell.  Their big beef is that Westly pushed a system that allowed you to easily file your state income taxes electronically and easily, for free.  Ready Return was, and remains, an excellent idea.  It will likely only affect taxpayers with fairly simple taxes, that would likely go to H&R Block or some other similar service.  Too bad these companies are putting profits ahead of the interest of Californians.  Just business I suppose.  Support John Chiang for Controller.
  • Speaking of Chiang, he responds to those Independent Expenditures against him in the SF Chron.
  • In one of the few competitive races in the Assembly, Nicole Parra is locked up with an interesting race with Danny Gilmore.  Parra will likely win, but it’s been eventful, as reported in Capitol Weekly.
  • Anna Caballero is preparing to be a great legislator from Salinas. (Capitol Weekly)
  • Why I support Alix Rosenthal in D-8 in SF

    I know, this is pretty darn local.  But, just in case anybody who is reading this is also in my district, I thought I would share this.  It’s not that I don’t think Bevan is a good guy.  He is.  He’s a really good guy. Every time I’ve talked to him, he’s been very nice and pretty darn helpful.

    But as they say, nice isn’t really the most important feature of a politician. The record of Bevan Dufty is well, not so nice.  District 8 is arguable the most “progressive” of any district.  Yet somehow, our supervisor is one of the more conservative members of the Board.  Now, I’ll admit that Dufty is clearly progressive, but in my opinion, not enough. 

    He votes with Gavin Newsom almost all of the time.  And again, the Mayor, not a bad guy, just more conservative than the district.  Dufty has encouraged Ellis Act evictions and additional condo conversions; it’s why the SF Tenants Union has endorsed Alix.

    As I said, Dufty is a good guy, but I’m not sure he really sees the forest for the trees.  He focuses on small issues and fixes them.  Great! But why are those issues there in the first place? That’s what we need to address.  That’s the critical thing that Dufty seems to miss. He treats the symptoms, but never actually addresses the sickness. Alix, on the other hand, really seems to understand the relevant issues.

    So, if you happen to live in District 8 of San Francisco, Vote for Alix Rosenthal.

    Prop 90: Oregon voters get buyer’s remorse on similar Measure 37

    A new poll (PDF) has been released by the Defenders of Wildlife that indicates that Oregonians regert passing Measure 37, a very similar measure to Prop 90.

    If an election were held today and voters had the opportunity to redo the vote on Measure 37, Oregon voters would now reject Measure 37 by a wide margin (48 percent no to only 29 percent yes), and the margin is even wider among voters who have heard a lot about it (66 percent to 26 percent);
    • Oregon voters now have an unfavorable view of Measure 37 (45 percent unfavorable to only 27 percent favorable) and believe that it has generally been bad for Oregon

    Don’t let this happen to California.

    Odds and Ends 10/25/06

    I’m running a bit behind, so it will be a bit short today. Teasers: Willie is for…Willie, John Chiang needs our help, A Dependent Judiciary, Prop 90, and a mock vote.

  • Willie Brown supports well, whomever will pay attention to him.  In May, it was Westly, Today, it’s Arnold, tomorrow??
  • Arnold is pretending to be anti-Bush again.  Hmm, he’s angry about a lack of a plan for global warming? Well, he could start by rescinding that executive order.
  • The O.C. board of Supes, well, they don’t care much about Tan Nguyen’s letter.
  • Both candidates for governor are failing to do the right thing on Prop 90.  This is ridiculous pandering.  Just call a spade a spade. Prop 90 will be extremely harmful to the state.
  • An Indian gaming coalition is trying to buy the controller’s office. John Chiang needs our support.
  • Judges shouldn’t be elected at all.  But as long as they are, vote no on McGuiness.Oh, and the New Jersey same-sex marriage case should be handed down in a few hours.
  • Students at California’s high schools are voting in mock elections. Maybe they would do a better job than their parents.
  • CA-11: Stockton Record endorses an alternate universe Richard Pombo

    cross-posted to dKos and MyDD

    The Stockton Record editorial board apparently has their head buried so far in the sand that they, like the Lodi newspaper, think that somehow Richard Pombo is going to stop being Richard Pombo.  Like a victim of domestic abuse, they just, tragically, keep coming back for more.

    What follows (on the flip) could be the most bizarre endorsement that I have ever read since well, the Lodi endorsement of Pombo.  They want Pombo to be elected, but they want the guy who talked tough before he was first elected. They want him to change his corrupt ways, they want him to be a model citizen, they want him to be, well, not Richard Pombo.

    And their reason for not supporting McNerney? Well, apparently they believe he doesn’t have enough experience.  Well, they didn’t mind so much when Richard Pombo, a brash 32 year old rancher of privilige strolled onto the scene.  McNerney has real business experience and a great technical familiarity with the challenges we will face as we attempt to free ourselves of our oil addiction.

    But the Record would rather have a man who tried to sell of the National Parks, gut the Endangered Species Act and play with corrupt lobbyists.  Oh, I’m sorry, they endorsed the non-corrupt Richard Pombo.  Problem is, that man is long gone.  We are stuck with the corrupt one, and no amount of wishing or Pombo apologies will change that. 

    And here’s how I imagine that editorial board interview went: “I’ll never do it again baby-district. I’m only corrupt because I love you so much.  You can cover up those oil derricks off the coast with a big sweatshirt and some foundation.”

    Check over the flip for snippets of the “endorsement”

    Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Tracy, still might wear his trademark cowboy boots and hat.

    But the former Tracy City Councilman no longer is a Washington outsider. After 14 years in Congress, the 46-year-old Pombo has become an influential insider susceptible to the enticements and temptations of political power in the nation’s capital.
    {snip}
    If he wants to be a maverick in Washington, D.C., changing the way he seeks and accepts campaign donations would set him apart.

    It’s a naive notion, but Pombo should become a model member of Congress whose campaign contributions have absolutely no connection to his legislative agenda.

    Well, you said it first … it’s a naive notion.  Pombo is Pombo.  You will never change that.  The odds of your naive notion ever coming to fruition, well, what are the odds on the Raiders winning the Super Bowl this year?  Take those and multipy by several orders of magnitude, and then you will, wait no, that’s still too good of odds.  Add the odds of winning powerball in there too because it’s never going to happen.

    Jerry Brown lawsuit stalled for now

    Chuck Poochigian’s surrogate’s lawsuit arguing that Jerry Brown is not qualified under the law for the AG position has been stalled until after the election.:

    A decision on whether candidate Jerry Brown is eligible to be attorney general will have to wait until after the November 7 election. Sacramento Superior Court Judge Shelleyanne Chang Tuesday denied a request to have the legal case challenging Brown’s qualifications heard before the fall vote. … Government Code Section 12503 requires attorney general candidates to be “admitted to practice before the California Supreme Court for a period of at lease five years immediately preceding his or her election to office.”

    According to the California State Bar’s Web site, Brown was first admitted to the bar in 1965 but let his membership lapse between 1997 and 2003. The Republican activists say that does not meet the five year requirement.

    Chang did not rule on the merits of the case and the plaintiffs may still challenge Brown’s eligibility after the election is held.

    For Pooch, even though the suit will go forward after the election, this is essentially equal to a loss.  If Brown wins, and the lawsuit succeeds, Arnold would surely not so obviously thwart voter will by appointing Pooch.

    UPDATE: I don’t know when this lawsuit would conclude. The inauguration of the new governor is in January I believe, so the appointment would probably fall to the new governor. Well, probably, and that’s on the very remote chance that the GOP wins the suit.

    Barack Obama to appear with Dem ticket at USC

    I just got a press release that the junior senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, will be appearing in LA with the California Democratic Statewide ticket.  Considering that Obama is now something of the rock star, this will be a great opportunity for press coverage.  In addition to Phil Angelides, other statewide candidates will be there as well.  John Garamendi, Debra Bowen, John Chiang and Cruz Bustamante will be in attendance.

    If you are in LA, the event will be on Friday 10/27 at 3PM at USC.  Full details are in the extended.

    SENATOR BARACK OBAMA TO JOIN ANGELIDES, VILLARAIGOSA AND STATEWIDE DEMOCRATS  TO RALLY CALIFORNIANS TO GET OUT THE VOTE

    LOS ANGELES — United States Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) will join Treasurer Phil Angelides, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres and California elected officials at a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) rally at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles on Friday.

    Elected officials also scheduled to attend include State Senate Pro Tem Don Perata, State Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante, Controller Steve Westly, State Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, Board of Equalization member John Chiang and State Senator Debra Bowen.

    Illinois Senator Barack Obama was recently profiled as “the Fresh Face” of the political landscape in a Time magazine cover story and on Sunday’s Meet the Press said he is considering running for President in 2008.

    DATE/TIME:
    Friday, October 27, 2006 @ 3:00 PM

    LOCATION:
    University of Southern California
    Steps of the Doheny Memorial Library at Alumni Park
    3550 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, CA 90089

    This is an outdoor rally.Parking Map available here: http://www.usc.edu/a….

    Don’t be surprised when it gets a bit warm if you deal with the Devil

    Now, Now, that’s rhetorical flourish.  I don’t actually think that Arnold Schwarzenegger is the Devil.  Far from it.  I’d be really surprised if the Devil would have to take steroids to bulk up.  You know, it’s just a hunch, but I’m betting Lucifer has better drugs.

    But to the point I’m referencing: Don Perata and Fabian Nunez are now shocked, SHOCKED, that Arnold is changing the rules after the game has been played.  Well, you know what, this is what you get when you have a solidly Dem state stuck with a backwards Republican governor.  Perhaps the two of you should have done a bit more for that cause.

    “The executive order is ill-timed and unnecessary, and creates confusion at this early stage in the implementation of the law,” Sen. Don Perata (D-Oakland) wrote. “Its substance and process undermine the bipartisan spirit and cooperation in which the law was passed and signed earlier this year.”

    Perata asked Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to rescind the order, which would create an advisory committee to study pollution-credit trading. But the governor said no. (LA Times 10.24.06)

    Umm, did you expect a different answer? A kindler, gentler Kindergarten cop type of Arnold.  I think somebody got a little snookered.  Unfortunately, the real losers here are the people of California.  Arnold got to play environmentalist, and the world bit, hook, line, and sinker.  But Arnold can’t change his anti-green record over night by shellacking his bus in green. Arnold is Arnold, no matter what he tells you.  His stripes will never change, no matter how many ex-Democrats he hires or how many layers of green paint he applies to his bus.

    Arnold doesn’t support Prop 87, which would force the oil companies to finally start paying the people of California for the oil that they are taking from the ground, and he supports guttin the global warming emissions bill.  Same ol’ Arnold.