Oops, I guess I missed it by a few minutes, but you can see the “transcript” and more info on Roth at FireDogLake.  David is running in the Plam Springs area against Mary Bono, she of no qualifications other than she was formerly married to the now deceased Sonny Bono. (who himself really didn’t have much in the way of qualifications, but I can cut him some slack b/c he was mayor of Palm Springs).  Check out the comments in the diary for the actual chat.

Steve Poizner and Cruz Bustamante will be “debating” for the SF Chronicle’s endorsement.  The event will be streamed live on CBS5.com today at 2PM.

Should be an interesting one.  Maybe they will ask Poizner about the glass houses built from insurance money.

UPDATE: Oops, forgot to point out the Controller Debate here.  John Chiang “won” by being better on the issues, IMHO.  The debate was quite civil, pleasant even.  My kind of debate.

CA-11: Pombo and Abramoff: More lies?

Oooh, we have a doozy of a question for Richard Pombo.  And we can call his home phone and ask him.  Yay!!  Over at FDL, Matt O. notes that the AP has Pombo in a lie.  You see in last week’s “candidate forum” Pombo said that he had never spoken, seen, heard, fondled (oops, sorry, I’ve been reading too much on Mark Foley) Jack Abramoff.  Never.  Ever. Swear, cross my heart, and hope to die.  Or something like that.  Well, the exact quote is:

“I’ve seen myself described as one of (Jack Abramoff’s) closest allies in Congress. I met the guy two or three times in my whole life — he never once lobbied me on anything, never asked me to sign a letter, to vote for or against a bill, to introduce a bill; he never once stepped foot in my office. …” (Tracy Press 10/5/06)

Maybe he never mentioned anything about fondling Jack Abramoff or hoping to die, but you know the story.  Pombo wants nothing to do with Abramoff.  At least not now.  It was a different story a few years ago.  Well, Pombo’s nose must have grown after that doozy:

California Rep. Richard Pombo has insisted he was never lobbied by Jack Abramoff. Records show the disgraced lobbyist billed a client for at least two contacts with Pombo a decade ago. The lobbying records released by the Northern Mariana Islands show that Abramoff billed once for calls to Pombo, chairman of the House Resources Committee, and a second time for a discussion with him, while lobbying in 1996.

On more than two dozen other occasions from 1996 through 2001, Abramoff associates called or met with members of Pombo’s staff, including his chief of staff, the records indicate. As the contacts picked up, Pombo voted Abramoff’s way on a bill important to Abramoff’s clients. (SF Chronicle (AP) 10/10/06)

Of course, Pombo is saying this is all bullshit, you know just a felon trying to make a few more bucks from the Islanders.  Well, unfortunately, there’s a nice little money trail.  Follow the money,  young Jedi:

On Sept. 10, 1996, Abramoff billed for a discussion with Pombo. Two days later he gave Pombo a $500 donation, the first of what would become $7,500 in campaign contributions. Pombo has since donated the money to charity. On Nov. 21, 1996, Abramoff reported putting in calls to Pombo and other lawmakers.

That’s what we call quid pro quo.  Donating $7500 to charity resolves nothing, it is just a cover for corruption.  And a relatively cheap cover too.  Pombo is bought and paid for by Big Oil and DC Lobbyists.
A better choice: Jerry McNerney.  Contribute at our ActBlue page. Or volunteer at JerryMcNerney.org or at Pombo In Their Pocket.

A few odds and ends that I wanted to post:

• From the diary of  “EthicsinCongress”, Charlie Brown (the good guy) will be be “debating” John “15%” Doolittle (the, well, corrupt guy) tonight at 7:30.  It will be streamed live over a complex series of tubes that we know as the Internets on News10.net.  The format seems more like something straight out of Oprah rather than a “debate”, but what can you do?  What’s the deal with these bizarre debate formats.  Why can’t we all just do good ol’ fashioned Lincoln-Douglas debates.  Oh right, that entails knowing a lot of facts and the hard work of preparation.  Wouldn’t want that, now would we?
• Over in my diary with the “Good Ideas” video, “Peter the Bellhop” and I are having a little conversation on Prop 77.  Feel free to join in…
• Andy Stern, the president of the SEIU, will be in the state promoting his new book, A Country That Works.  He’s something of the rock star among labor leaders, and is very charismatic.  I’ve posted the California event dates on the flip, or you can check his book website event page. Buy A Country That Works here.
• Spending on Prop 87, the oil tax/alternative energy initative, has set a new record.  Accourding to the San-Diego Union-Trib spending is currently at $105 million.  And there’s still 4 weeks left.  Whoa!  But I suppose this isn’t surprising given Stephen Bing’s resources and the oil company’s resources.  Couldn’t they just have given all this money to alternative energy research and be done.  $100 million makes a lot of solar panels.  Nonetheless, we fight on.  87 is a good idea and worthy of passage.  You can bet Chevron won’t back down.

Andy Stern CA Book Tour dates

10/11
8:00pm – 9:30pm
Drinking Liberally @ Molly Mahlone’s
575 South Fairfax
Los Angeles, CA

10/12
12:00pm – 1:30pm
Dean Forum
3502 Watt Way, LA Room 207 “Annenberg Rm�
Los, Angeles, CA

10/18
6:00pm – 8:00pm
2221 Broadway at Grand
Oakland, CA

10/19
12:00pm – 1:30pm
Working Assets Lunch and Book Signing
101 Market St, 1st flr
San Francisco, CA

10/19
7:00pm – 8:30pm
Cody’s Bookstore
2 Stockton Street at Market
San Francisco, CA

10/19
8:30pm – 10:00pm
Drinking Liberally @ House of Shields
39 New Montgomery
San Francisco, CA

This CA-11 race is really getting fun. Of course, the most fun part will be on election night when the voters of CA-11 enjoy thier hard-earned victory. But this little piece from Hank Shaw(who it turns out, has a pretty cool little reporter blog) is fun too: (h/t to SNTP)

This is either the boldest or the most desperate campaign move I’ve seen in years: Tracy Rep. Richard Pombo just sent out a letter to 11th District voters asking them to call him at his house, so he can personally answer any questions they might have.

Here’s the relevant part of the letter:

“I am proud of what I have been able to accomplish for our district.

So if you have any questions for me, please call me, and I will personally answer any remaining questions you may have about any of these issues.

My home phone number is (209)836-3326.

Jesus General and others have confirmed that this is actually his home number.  That is just plain bizarre. Those NRCC poll numbers must be really bad. CA-11ers should feel free to give him a call.  There are certainly plenty of questions that he needs to answer.  But you know, be polite. I suppose other people could call him too, but that would be, well, not nice or something.

Or maybe he had some heads up about the Modesto Bee’s switch from Pombo to McNerney. In 2004, The Modesto Bee endorsed Richard Pombo, as it did in the previous election and the election before.  In 2006, well, they changed their mind in an editorial entitled “Out with Pombo, In with McNerney”:

This, like any election with an incumbent, is a referendum. … [Pombo] is at the diseased heart of the quid-pro-quo process that defines Washington politics today. To send him back to the Capitol endorses a system we can no longer tolerate.

And while his strident environmental views have caused us concern in the past, the idea he floated this past term about selling off parks was over the top. It’s just one of many such ideas.

In contrast, we admire McNerney’s more practical approach. Pombo got headlines by trying to gut the Endangered Species Act — but his plan went nowhere. McNerney suggests negotiating changes to the act while preserving its goals.

If you prefer the politics of extremes; if you’re OK with selling off national parks; if backroom dealmaking and tainted money suit you; if you embrace out-of-balance budgets and the concentration of wealth — Pombo’s your man.

But he’s no longer ours.(Modesto Bee 10/10/06)

The Modesto Bee has to cut out these great editorials, or they might become one of my preferred papers. Then what will the Pombo and Doolittle’s of the world think? It will be anarchy I tell you, ANARCHY!!

After his excellent debate performance (I forgive him for speaking to the real people rather than the camera), people from all over the state showed up at Phil’s Bus Tour of the State. From Stockton:

he received his best welcome in Modesto, where about 200 people came to see him speak Monday morning at the Sportsmen’s Club of Stanislaus. …  “I did then what I’m going to do in 29 days: I’m going to fight, and I’m going to scrap, and I’m going to win this title for you.”(Stockton Record 10/10/06)

To Oakland:

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides capped a two-day, statewide barnstorming bus tour Monday with raucous rallies on both sides of the Bay, revving up volunteers for his campaign’s final four weeks.
16th Assembly District candidate Sandre Swanson called it “street heat” during the rally outside a downtown state office building, as a throng of union members and local candidates pledged to do all they can to see the state treasurer elected governor Nov. 7. They met Angelides with gusto despite his hour-late arrival from Stockton.
“We’re going to give this everything we have,” he pledged, noting students suffering from recent education cuts “are counting on us to win” and working families “know they can’t count on Arnold Schwarzenegger to lift a finger for them.”(OakTrib 10/10/06)

4 Weeks Folks.  4 Weeks from now the state will be heading to the polls.  The nation will be heading to the polls.  A great blue wave is building at the Congressional shores (like my metaphor??) and wouldn’t it be a shame if that blue wave just stopped at our doorstep.  No, I think there’s plenty of time left, and all the reason in the world for the people of this state to see the folly of Schwarzenegger’s attack the workers policies.  As the Alliance pointed out after the debate, Arnold still thinks his ridiculous power grab in the form of Props 74-77 are still a good idea.  And while he hasn’t officially endorsed anti-choice Prop 85, he endorsed the harsher Prop 73 last year.  These were bad policies all and direct attacks on the middle class of this state in favor of Arnold’s corporate supporters.

Bad Arnold.  Poor, Poor Flat Stanley has to travel with a governor who attacks the hard working people of the state of California.  And thinks it was a good idea.

(Also cross-posted at dKos and MyDD. Recs appreciated. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I need to admit something: I love the horse race.  I try in so many ways to resist.  I try to resist the media’s love of incumbency and jockeying for position.  I love to see people talking issues, I mean really talking issues.  It’s one of the reasons that I love Debra Bowen.  She knows the issues, and isn’t afraid to talk about some of the very real problems in election reform. But try as I may, I still love me a good horse-race story.

I track House Forecasts and the polls relentlessly.  How much do I love Chris Bowers’ House Forecast? Well, let’s just say…too much.  So, I was very intrigued when I saw On Oct. 6 that the Cook Political Report changed the CA-11 race from likely Republican to lean Republican.  That’s a real indicator of the nervousness by those within the beltway.  The NRCC has dumped about half a million bucks into the race, and almost $300K in a 6-week period…for a very strong fundraiser.  Heck, Pombo had to bring W to town to get some more cash.

There have been no truly independent polls in this race.  I would really love to see one, but they just don’t exist.  However, we do have two polls an internal McNerney poll by Lake Partners, that puts him within the margin (Pombo 41-McNerney 40), and a Defenders of Wildlife poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner that showed McNerney actually leading by 48 percent to 46 percent.  There are at least two other polls out there, but the problem is that they are internal Pombo/NRCC polls that they won’t release.  Why? Well, can you think of any other good reason than the fact that they just aren’t that good of numbers?

Now, this race is still a very challenging race, but the possibility of a Dem landslide could be bad news for Richard Pombo.  But don’t ask Lisa Vorderbrueggen, the political editor of the CoCo Times.  You see, she thinks this race as something of a joke:

So far, the polls haven’t prompted Rothenberg and other top analysts to increase their rankings of this race, which sits a “likely Republican,” one step more competitive than outright safe.

Congressional Quarterly is the exception, which moved the race last week up one additional competitive level to “leans Republican.”

But instead of polls, its writer cited the nearly $500,000 the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent in recent weeks on anti-McNerney advertisements.

Does the cash dump mean the polls are true?Maybe. On the other hand, it could be a GOP message to the Democratic Party, which hasn’t spent a dime on McNerney, that it won’t roll over in this district.
Strategy translation: Get out your checkbook, Democrats, because this ain’t gonna be cheap. (CoCoTimes 10/08/06)

Well, I do agree with the “this ain’t going to be cheap part.” It’s why jsw ran his matching contribution campaign.  California politics is never cheap (A reason to support Prop 89 for state politics??).  But did you see something here…hmmm…oh yeah, her whole premise: “the polls haven’t prompted Rothenberg and other top analysts to increase their rankings of this race”.

Hmm, well, she does throw the recent CQ Upgrade, but she missed something didn’t she? Oh yeah, Charlie Cook, one of, if not the most, widely read forecasts upgraded CA-11 from a Likely Republican to a Leans Republican.

Now, I don’t know if Ms. Vorderbrueggen just missed the Cook upgrade.  I mean it is very hard to find.  You know, you had to type that long URL into your browser (cookpolitical.com) or you know, type Cook political into Google.  All very challenging.  It’s unclear whether she is ill-informed, deliberately deceptive, or just lazy.  I suppose it could be a combination of all of the above, but I’m just betting it’s the lazy thing.  Political editors are busy people and may not have time to actually double check their facts.  It may be that simple, but it’s rather unfortunate.

And I think it should also be pointed out that the NRCC cash dump is very related to polls.  The NRCC is cash-strapped; they are fighting a battle on 50 fronts.  They aren’t going to be dumping half a million bucks into a non-race after $25K in polling data.  No, they respond to polling data, just like everybody else.  To suggest otherwise is just naive. 

Finally, Ms. Vorderbrueggen cites Stuart Rothenberg as saying:

But as national political analyst Stuart Rothenberg points out in a recent blog post, Democratic pollsters are pushing a lot of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well.

“If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats,” he wrote. “Obviously, that’s unlikely. Extremely unlikely.”

Oh really?  I beg to differ Stewie.  How about the Fox News Poll predicting a possible 50 seat pickup.  Now, I think given gerrymandering (btw, an example of the Republicans changing the rules, rather than fighting by the ones we did in the past), it will be hard to gain as many as the Republican did in 1994 (54), but I think the Foley scandal goes to the heart of the new conservative movement.  If they stay at home, is a 30 seat pickup is not “extremely unlikely.”

Two anti-eminent domain leaders, Mayor Charles Antos of Seal Beach and Mayor Don Webb of Newport Beach, have spoke out against Prop 90. 

Antos – like many city officials – believes that if the statewide Proposition 90 passes in November, it will spell the end of local control over land-use issues. So he helped rush through the ban in hopes of dodging a lesser-known element of Prop. 90, which is primarily touted for protecting property owners from cities abusing the use of eminent domain to take land.
“It would be a nightmare for the cities,” Antos says of passage of the initiative.
{snip}
But Prop. 90’s effort to extend property rights beyond the issue of eminent domain has attracted opposition from unexpected quarters – beyond council members like Antos and Webb.
The California Taxpayers’ Association, which typically tries to restrict government’s reach, opposes Prop. 90. Even the Republican leader of the state Senate, Irvine’s Dick Ackerman, opposes it.
“I think you can put my property-rights record up against anyone’s, but this goes too far,” said Ackerman. “Sometimes down zoning can be abused, but sometimes it’s needed.”(OC Register 10/9/06)

Republicans are bailing faster than rats from the Titanic.  Why? Oh didn’t you read the article?  It’s just bad policy.  As Ackerman said, sometimes we need downzoning.  To give up control of our land-use policy is just a bad idea.