All posts by Brian Leubitz

CA-Gov: Field Poll shows Westly with the narrowest of leads

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

The Field Poll came out today.  It shows Westly to have a 1 point lead over Angelides(35-34).  This is, of course, well within the poll’s margin of error.  And given all the variability of the polls recently, it’s hard to know what’s going on at all.  One thing is clear: voters are not sure what to think.  26% percent remains undecided a week away from the election.  A little bit shocking given the expected high percentage of absentee voters.

Heading into the final weekend, the Democratic gubernatorial race between Steve Westly and Phil Angelides is a statistical dead heat, with a record number of voters still undecided, according to a new California Field Poll.

In the poll of likely voters for Tuesday’s primary election, 35 percent supported Westly and 34 percent supported Angelides. Twenty-six percent of voters said they are undecided and another 5 percent said they’ll vote for someone else.

The poll reflects an intense, contentious primary race between Westly, the state controller and a former eBay executive, and Angelides, the state treasurer and a former real estate developer. The primary has seen voters bombarded with negative advertisements in recent weeks, leaving many confused as to how to vote — if they choose to vote at all.(SacBee 6/2/06)

Check out the SacBee article it has several good graphics for the poll.  Particularly telling is that Angelides has seen his lead in female voters fall to 1 point, while Westly still has a 4 point lead in male voters.

The negative ads between these two clearly have affected the race.  It is a shame that it has to come to this.  The Democratic Party should really think about getting some new consultants for these campaigns in the future.  The retreads of yore are hurting the party with these Dem on Dem attacks.

The Poll HQ has been updated as well.

CA-45: HRC endorses Mary Bono over David Roth

Well, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), the LGBT lobbying organization, has lost another member, me.  For some reason, the HRC thinks that the way to win is to endorse the establishment candidates over more pro-equality candidates. 

Exhibit A: Joe Lieberman.  The man said “I think homosexuality is wrong.”  He has said several times in the past that he is against gay marriage.  Now, I could understand if the man was running against some right-winger, but he’s running against Ned Lamont.  Lamont has come out in favor of gay marriage.  Lamont is an easy call here.  See Parachutec’s HuffPo post on the topic.

But, Lieberman at least votes for Democratic leadership in the Senate.  Under Democratic Leadership, the hate-filled Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) would never see the light of day.  But the HRC likes to pretend that they support both parties.  That’s preposterous! (I contained my language there…go me!)  The GOP brought us the FMA, brought us gay-bashing as a means to victory.  What more does the GOP need to do to convince the HRC that they don’t like gays?  Perhaps a new law requiring a pink triangle on your shirt.  That would be nice.

And so what does the HRC do in California?  They endorse Mary Bono.  Yup, that’s right, the widow of Sonny Bono who is running for re-election in CA-45:

There’s no question that a Democratic majority in Congress would do more to support equality. Even if Democrats win a majority, their margin will be slim. Republicans will still have votes in Congress – and power.

Case in point. In 2005, for the first time ever, a hate crimes bill passed in the House of Representatives. That only happened because more than 30 Republicans joined Democrats in the vote.

Rep. Bono was not only one of those votes, but she also co-sponsored the measure and pushed her GOP colleagues for their support. If any lobbying effort is going to succeed, you must have Republican and Democratic friends. Rep. Bono is one of those friends, and becoming a stronger friend each year. HRC

In my book, your friends don’t vote for taking funding away from D.C. for allowing gay adoptions.  What we need is not 2 more years of a Republican majority.  David Roth supports the LGBT community completely.  To me, if you have one candidate who supports your goals completely, and one who does less so, you go with the one who supports you. 

This is wrong.  The HRC is wrong, and while I didn’t have them in my will for a million bucks, I will not be giving them any more money.  The HRC owes no duty to incumbents, but to their members.  They should remember that next time they start endorsing Republicans.

From Al-Anbar to San Ysidro: Schwarzenegger OKs Guard Deployment

Arnold Schwarzenegger has okayed the deployment of California National Guard Troops.  Under the rights bestowed upon him by Darrel Issa the state and federal Constitutions, Schwarzenegger had the authority to approve the deployment within the state.  (Note that the states do not have authority to block deployment overseas due to the Montgomery Amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1987.  See “PERPICH v. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, 496 U.S. 334 (1990)”.)

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has scheduled a press conference for 2 p.m. to announce that he has reached an agreement with the federal government to deploy California National Guard troops on the Mexican border, according to a source in the administration.

Details of the agreement were not available. But at a state Senate hearing on Wednesday, the guard’s Major Gen. William Wade said up to 1,000 state troops would be deployed in a plan that would take effect in the middle of July and run through 2008.
Bush said he wants the troops to provide construction, surveillance and intelligence support until the federal government can fund, hire and train 6,000 additional Border Patrol agents. (SacBee 6/1/06)

So, the Governor has a chance to buck the President, but chooses not to.  This National Guard at the border is quite simply a bad idea, and it’s a bad idea on many levels.  First of all, the National Guard is already over stretched.  These people signed up for “One weekend a month, and two weeks per year.”  Instead they are getting “24 months on, followed by 24 months off.”  Um, well, that’s terrific.  We are abusing the National Guard and some of the governors should stand up to this.  If Bush wants to have his wars he needs regular Army, not National Guard.  If he wants to have a draft, let’s see him get that through the Congress, rather than bypassing any real decisionmaking.  All of America should be sacrificing equally for the War, not just the poor.  The children of the rich and the poor should be serving in this War equally. 

The National Guard does not even get the same benefits as the regular Army:

JUDY WOODRUFF: Currently, there are more than 440,000 civilian soldiers serving part-time in the Army and Air National Guard.

Guardsmen and women usually drill one weekend a month and two weeks a year under the command of state governors.  But during war or emergencies, the president can press them into federal service. Most deployments are limited to 24 months.

When on active duty, Guard members get paid the same as regular forces and are eligible for pensions, but only receive limited benefits. The Pentagon has resisted efforts by Guard leaders and governors to include a Guard general as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (NewsHour with Jim Lehrer 5/17/06)

So, they don’t even get typical benefits, and are forced away from their civilian jobs for two years.  It’s hard on the economy because employers are legally bound to maintain a job for them while they are out.  It’s hard on the families, as they weren’t expecting to be gone for two years at a time. 
And then we also must bring up the question of who will be our emergency force?  You know, when a real emergency hits?  Like…say…a earthquake?  Will we be fully equipped to respond to such a natural disaster?

In addition to overseas combat assignments, the National Guard is often called to respond to natural disasters at home. This week, the Massachusetts and New Hampshire governors dispatched their National Guards to help respond to record flooding.

In the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 50,000 Guard troops from across the nation were deployed to the ravaged Gulf Coast, while portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi National Guard were on duty in Iraq. (NewsHour with Jim Lehrer 5/17/06)

And finally, we have to consider whether we think it’s a particularly good idea to be stationing military personnel within our state.  It’s just one more step to the police state that the Bush Administration has been building towards.  Clearly Schwarzenegger is acting as an enabler.  We need a Governor who will truly consider the costs of these actions with a critical eye for the state. 

CA-50: The perfect storm

(Hat tip to Kos – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College, pens a piece on the San Diego U-T’s blog about CA-50 describing the confluence of events that will lead to Francine Busby’s victory on Tuesday.

Basically, he describes the process as being a perfect storm for a Dem victory: unopposed Dem who can play towards the middle, one corrupt, moderate Rep, running against a bunch of wingers in the primary, who has to play to the right, wingers who don’t go away quietly after the first election, and so on…

1. Run multiple conservative GOP candidates in the primary along with one moderate. This would guarantee that the district’s conservative would be split, giving the moderate a plurality without his winning the hearts, minds and votes of the majority of the party.

2. Have the moderate be a current Washington insider well acquainted with (and tainted by) the DC culture of corruption rather than being a bright new, energetic and well-financed newcomer.

3. Have a Democratic candidate who runs unopposed in the primary and is therefore able—and smart enough– to position herself safely to the middle on all major issues while the Republicans savage themselves to out-right each other.

4. Run a Democrat as candidate who has the charisma of a Kennedy and character of an Eisenhower. Meanwhile, end up with a Republican candidate who kind of resembles Richard Nixon in a speedo. (San Diego U-T 6/1/06)

I think this is a problem for the NRCC.  They are getting so desperate to come up with anything about Busby to attack her on.  The woman is practically your grandmother, and who wants politicos attacking your grandmother? 

Luna continues:

5. Have the defeated conservative Republican candidates not rally faithfully behind the party standard bearer ….

6. Have the moderate Republican nominee run on a hard-right immigration reform plan as his wedge issue…

7. Have a Republican President with an approval rating lower than the average used-car salesman …Throw in a Republican controlled congress that would kill to have an approval rating as high as said President’s.

8. Have both parties’ national congressional committees pour millions of dollars into nuclearly (or is it nucularly?) bombastic negative ads, with the Republican ads being so over the top as to be absurd. …

9. Finally, in the last weeks of the campaign have one of the most divisive figures in Republican national politics come to stump for the Republican moderate to help shore up the district’s conservative base but, at the last moment, have the crown prince of Republican moderation, also planning to stump for the candidate to shore up moderate and independent voters, chooses not to do so in a snit because the candidate has publicly dissed the crown prince’s moderate compromise plan on immigration reform.

Yup, that pretty well summarizes it.  I think that he left out the fact that Busby will ultimately be a far better asset to the district, but we can forgive him for getting lost in the horse race at a moment like this.

Prop 82 and English Learners

Preschool provides students the best opportunity to learn English.  Language facilities are best developed earlier rather than later.  Prop 82 will ensure that more non-native speakers will have the access to preschool.

Of the 20 children in the state-funded preschool class at Charles Mack Elementary School — on Brookfield Drive in south Sacramento — 18 come from homes where a language other than English is spoken. Along with the obvious advantages of life in a classroom-turned-farm — the chance, for example, to bawk-bawk-bawk like chickens — Cindy Aboukhadijeh’s class gives students access to a wealth of new vocabulary and ideas.

Even if your parents speak English at home, at 4 years old you have a ways to go before mastering the language. But, especially for 4-year-olds whose first language is Spanish or Hmong or Vietnamese, quality preschool can improve the transition to elementary school.

On Tuesday, California voters will consider a ballot initiative that promises three hours a day of free preschool to every 4-year-old in the state. About 38 percent of these children are English learners, some of California’s economically and academically neediest students.

A major goal of Proposition 82 is to shrink the achievement gap that has plagued California’s schools for decades. English learners, among the fastest-growing and poorest-performing members of the school population, are a big focus of the initiative.

People on both sides of the debate over Proposition 82 say quality preschool can offer English learners a chance to catch up with their English-speaking peers before the achievement gap grows too wide. The longer they go without gaining English proficiency, the more likely English learners will stagnate academically, research shows.(SacBee 6/1/06)

It’s just one of the many reasons to support Prop 82. It provides HIGH quality preschool to all of our children.  It provides our teachers with the knowledge that all children enter school with at least some background.

Also in Prop 82 news, the folks at YesOn82.com have released a new report from Martin Carnoy, a professor of Education and Economics at Stanford University.  The report touts the returns that Prop 82 could return.

–$800 million in federal contributions to the preschool program due to the federal deduction for state income taxes. Much of this money would have left California, but instead, it will fund salaries construction, and teacher training, generating up to $1.5 billion in economic impact annually.

–20,000-40,000 qualified teachers, including 10,000 new college graduates who would start teaching in preschools by 2010. By 2016, earnings from additional college graduates could rise to $2.2 billion.(YesOn82.com 6/1/06)

In addition, the report highlights the benefits for our children:

The Preschool for All Act is a great opportunity to improve the state’s educational system and to transform the lives of tens of thousands of low-income children. Many of the
world’s developed countries already provide free preschool for all children beginning at two years old. Extending public education to all its four year-olds would put California on the road to meet the challenges of the knowledge revolution. (PDF Report)

Think about it when you are filling out that ballot.

KQED’s Forum: Governor Candidates and CA-06

KQED’s Forum, in an ongoing series on primary coverage, is focusing on the non-major Democrats today.  In its first hour, Susan Rasky will be discussing the Democratic primary for governor.  In the second hour, the program will focus on the CA-06 primary.  Joe Nation and Lynn Woolsey are duking it out in a race I covered yesterday. 

For the audio, check out the podcast feed or the audio archive.

CA-06: Lynn Woolsey and Joe Nation in a term limits inspired fight.

(updated – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE: Nathaniel (who did predictions for Constitutional Offices, the Assembly, and the Senate on Calitics) predicted a bunch of other races on dKos today.  In response to his prediction that Woolsey would trounce Nation, I did a little thinking.  In my comment, I said this:

It’s really too bad b/c I think Nation kicked her ass in the debate (it’s streamed online.  You can get more info on the race at Calitics.  He just seems a lot smarter than her.  Her basic argument is that I’m liberal as him, why lose the seniority?  Well, I think sometimes liberals should consider who will be most effective in addition to liberal values.  Look, Lynn Woolsey has been a good representative, but what are her big efforts that she’s given us?  Yes, I understand that she’s in the minority.  But at some point you need to look to build bridges to get things done.  I just think Joe Nation would be better at the job than she is.

And you said his career is over.  Really?  I think he’s a great legislator. I hope he can make a comeback from this race.  It was definitely bold (some would say presumptious) to try to run against Woolsey, but I don’t think it should kill his career.

So, I guess I support Nation, for similar reasons as the SF Chronicle. See the flip for more…

Joe Nation, a termed-out Assemblyman from Marin County, is challenging Lynn Woolsey, the 7-term incumbent, for CA-06.  The seat represents all of Marin County and most of Sonoma County.  However, unlike the Harman-Winograd race, Nation is not running to the left of Woolsey.  It is clear from her website, and her record, that Lynn Woolsey is a solid progressive:

The conversation reminded me why I love my job so much. It went beyond the need to fix potholes in Sonoma and Marin, to what we can do to heal the heart and soul of our nation. We agreed on many things: 
  * the moral imperative of bringing our troops home from Iraq;
  * stopping a president who believes he is above the law;
  * improving schools for all American children;
  * and making health care the birth- right of every American, not a privilege reserved just for the wealthy.(Woolsey For Congress)

Her issues page is chock full of examples of her progressive street cred.  But that’s not something Nation is arguing.  Sure, he’s pretty darn progressive himself, but I don’t think you could win an election by running to the left of Lynn Woolsey, even in Marin.  With the exception of castigating Woolsey for voting for No Child Left Behind and environmental issues, Nation hasn’t really said a whole lot that would disagree with Woolsey’s positions.  You can find a lot more about his position on his issues page.  He is running on the notion that Woolsey just isn’t that effective in Congress.  And it is somewhat true.  She is a solid progressive voice, but a voice without much gusto behind it.

But, normally such a challenge wouldn’t really be considered remarkable.  The incumbent would easily take the race, even if he or she wasn’t that effective.  However, Nation has gotten some traction.  It’s still an uphill battle for him, but picking up the endorsement of the San Francisco Chronicle will help him.

Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma, has served 14 years in the House of Representatives. She is a solidly reliable vote on the left — whether the issue is military policy or health care — but no one would regard her as one of the more dynamic or effective members of Congress from the Bay Area.
***
On the baseline issues — the Iraq war, abortion rights, environment — there is little distinction between Nation and Woolsey. But the differences in their grasps of public policy, and ability to formulate and articulate fresh ideas, is profound. … The comparison favors Nation, 49, who emerged from a crowd of 80 as one of the more thoughtful and effective members of the Assembly.
***
Woolsey, 68, has always counted on her “progressive” credentials and constituent work to keep her immune from a primary challenge. In this race, however, her stumbles on the home front have become focal points against her. Her contradictory statements about whether she lobbied for a Port Sonoma ferry terminal — a project loathed by environmentalists — suggest a deficiency in either her credibility or her attention span. Nation has also taken her to task for an act of Congress that cleared the way for a casino in Sonoma County. (SF Chron 5/24/06)

There are several great resources available for this race.  SmartVoter (a resource of the League of Women Voters) has a collection of some of these resources.  The two candidates debated.  I must say that Woolsey looked a bit peeved to be there.  She began her opening statement by saying “I love my job.”  It sounds a little bit self-serving to me.  That being said, it did appear that Nation had an excellent grasp on the issues.  She is a competent Congresswoman, but I can see why the Chronicle would think why would be more effective.

This could be an interesting race next Tuesday.

CA-11: Republican Challengers to Pombo on KQED’s Forum

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

They are now on the radio in the Bay Area on KQED 88.5.  Both Pete McCloskey and Tom Benigno are challenging Paid-for Pombo.  If you aren’t in the Bay Area or if you can’t listen, they run a podcast at the website.  The Dem candidates, McNerney and Filson are not scheduled to appear.  However, I’m sure we can bug them to get the Dem nominee on after the primary.

Also notable is that Pete McCloskey has said that he would support the Dem nominee over Pombo.  I’m not sure if he’s said that before, but I thought it was interesting.

Capitol Weekly published an article on June 1 about the race:

“Mr. Pombo stands for everything that’s evil, in my mind,” McCloskey told Capitol Weekly.

Much of the media coverage of McCloskey’s run has centered on Pombo’s efforts to revise the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which McCloskey helped write while serving in Congress from 1967 to 1983. While Pombo has claimed he act doesn’t work, environmental groups and McCloskey have both claimed he is trying to destroy the ESA. One draft of Pombo’s ESA overhaul built in a 2015 sunset clause for the act. Debating Pombo in a high-school auditorium in Tracy last month, McCloskey launched right in on this charge.

“His purpose, and he said so in a book 10 years ago, is to destroy the Endangered Species Act,” McCloskey said, referring to Pombo’s 1996 book This Land Is Our Land: How to End the War on Private Property.

However, McCloskey said Pombo’s ESA efforts constitute “10 percent” of the reason for his run. In Tracy, he spent far more time hammering away at Pombo’s vote against prosthetic research for Iraqi War veterans. While Pombo has defended this vote, saying it was about base-closing legislation he opposed, McCloskey supporters like to point out Pombo’s zero rating from the group Disabled American Veterans.

In recent years, the Democrats increasingly have opened their doors to pro-business and even more socially conservative candidates. Meanwhile, some in the GOP have tried to expel secular, pro-choice “Republicans in Name Only.”  “I’ve been a Republican since 1948, before Pombo was born,” McCloskey said. Later, he added, “They would call Barry Goldwater a RINO today.”(Capitol Weekly 6/1/06)

I’m not sure how McCloskey will fare, but as he has said, I would support anybody over Pombo.  If it’s another Republican, but this time an honest, respectable Republican, I would support him.