All posts by Brian Leubitz

CA-50: Bilbray shifts right, McCain shifts far, far away

Apparently John McCain doesn’t want to hang with Brian Bilbray anymore.  He cancelled an appearance with the CA-50 candidate:

Arizona Sen. John McCain on Tuesday canceled an appearance for a Republican congressional candidate who has attacked his opponent for supporting McCain’s immigration bill.

McCain, R-Ariz., was scheduled to speak Wednesday at a breakfast fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, who is locked in a close runoff race with Democrat Francine Busby for the San Diego-area seat left vacant by disgraced former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham. The event was expected to raise at least $65,000.(AP 5/30/06)

Oh, so you mean I shouldn’t attack my opponent for supporting a bill sponsored by somebody who was coming to help me fundraise?  Oh, I didn’t know that.  I’ll get on that next time.  But at least Sen. McCain is still forking over some cash ($5K from his PAC).

The DCCC’s stakeholder has a nice little recap of the story with press releases from Busby and the DCCC.  You know one thing that I can say about Busby’s campaign- they are very good about staying on the lobbyist message.  I swear everytime they use the word “Bilbray” it is proceeded with “lobbyist”.  Now, that’s discipline.

Oh and by the way, who were some of Bilbray’s clients you might ask?  Oh well, some very friendly anti-immigration such as the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).  Yeah, good ol’ FAIR.  What a great bunch of nativists.  They don’t even attempt to hide it on their website.  They have flash stastics to scare the natives.  It’s all quite fun.

So go ahead Sen McCain.  Give Bilbray your five grand.  But is Brian Bilbray really who you want to work with?  I think we all know who the reasonable candidate in this race is.  Let’s help Francine out: ActBlueher site.

Winograd and Harman duke it out

UPDATE: Corrected an error about Harman’s endorsement.

Listen up folks.  This is a real race.  Really.  I’m not kidding.  Well, not mostly…Winograd has supporters, and CA-36 is a pretty liberal seat.

Manhattan Beach Mayor Mitch Ward, a perennial Jane Harman supporter, remembers precisely when he decided the longtime South Bay congresswoman no longer deserved his backing.

He was watching NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Feb. 12 when he heard the influential Democrat defend the Bush administration’s domestic wiretapping program.

“She failed her constituents when she failed to realize the U.S. Constitution is in place for a purpose; she failed us by not recognizing the illegal wiretapping of this administration had gone too far,” Ward said. (Dailybreeze.com 5/26)

As far as I know there aren’t any real polls, but Winograd says that she’s seen some of Harman’s polling that they are close.

Few give her any real chance of unseating Harman, although Winograd claims with a straight face that Washington sources are telling her Harman’s own polls show the pair running neck and neck.

Winograd blocked an early endorsement of Harman, but failed to block the endorsment at the Democratic Convention in April.
I definitely prefer Winograd’s policies, but how much money is that worth?  Is it worth the $208,000 that she has raised so far?  I don’t know.  Anybody have an opinion on it?

Also: check out this LA Weekly article.

Vince Duffy on defeating Arnold

Vince Duffy, a former Gray Davis speechwriter, has a few thoughts on how to beat Arnold Schwarzenegger.

California Democrats should tie all of these Republican rascals, including the president himself, around Arnold’s neck, from the primary through Election Day.

Pundits who say Democrats need a positive message miss the point. The message is that Democrats are not George W. Bush Republicans and Arnold is.

This year, that’s more than enough.

It was, after all, Schwarzenegger who basked in the Bush glory at the Republican convention in 2004. To a nationwide audience, Schwarzenegger called Democrats liars and boasted that only Republicans can be tough on terrorists.

Even worse, it was Schwarzenegger who campaigned for President Bush in arguably the most important battleground state, Ohio, just days before Election Day in 2004 in front of 20,000 people.

That day, the governor said: “I’m here to pump you up to re-elect George W. Bush,” and it was a success. Ohio went for Bush by a tiny margin. America re-elected the president and the Republican Congress.

Our task is to never let anyone forget that Schwarzenegger is responsible.(CapWeekly 5/25/06)

It’s all stuff that’s been said before, and I don’t know if it’s really enough.  Yes, Arnold is a bad governor.  Yes, he has ties with Bush (ie Dowd and Smith, former BushCo employees, now running his campaign), but it’s not totally clear that it’s enough against him.  Unfortunately there’s still going to be a group of people that will vote for Ahnold just because he’s a movie star.  Look, I was at the Capitol last week, and there were people queueing up to see him walk into the capitol.  You think people were doing that for Davis?  I think not.

I think tying Schwarzenegger to Bush will help.  But only to a certain extent. The Dem nominee should also present the state with concrete ways that he is different than Arnold.  There are plenty of ways to show that Arnold is not a moderate (such as that early veto announcment last week).  We just need to make sure we can show that he is no moderate.

A response to Kos on the Governor’s race.

Kos let out one of his patented rants today.  This one regards the state of our Governor’s race:

So what do you do when your two gubernatorial aspirants, Steve Westley and Phil Angelides, let their primary battle degenerate into a disgusting, slimy pit of bullshit attack ads and surrogate whisper smear campaigns?

I quit. I hate them both. Someday, California Democrats will have the option to choose from candidates who inspire, not the Gray Davises, Cruz Bustamantes, and the two candidates currently stinking up the Democratic side of the ticket.

The sad thing is that we need a strong turnout for this race to help Francine Busby win in CA-50. But the way this is going, if I want to vomit and throw out my absentee ballot, I can’t imagine what it’s doing to less tuned-in and political Californians, especially in that district. (dKos 5/30/06)

So, first of all, one thing that you can say is that Kos is completely independent of his advertisers.  Steve Westly has been running ads on Kos for a while now.  In fact if you go the page I linked to you will find an ad for Westly right next to the rant about how he sucks.  So, well, good for you Kos.  On the other hand, I think his frustration is somewhat misplaced.  I posted a comment, but well, you know those get lost.  So, I thought I would talk about it a little here.  Here are snippets of my comment:

The lack of funds (caused mostly by the ridiculous concept of homeowners paying a far larger share of property taxes than businesses) is hampering how we do business.  The obvious result of the shortfalls on cash and the fact that a minority has a veto power leaves us with an ALMOST ungovernable state.  Toss the initiative process in there and then you have a hulablaoo.

That being said, I have to disagree with Kos.  Yes the race has turned ugly.  I’ve been bitching about it for a while over at Calitics (mandatory plug here: We’re a scoop community blog focused solely on California politics).  The funny thing is that it started off really well.  They were both going after Arnold.  But then fricking “serpent-tongued” garry South had to start opening his mouth.  He started with that “Positive campaign pledge” that made Westly look foolish because South was attacking Angelides at every turn.  Angelides  responded and the race to the bottom was on.

But there are some good, exciting politicians in California.  Just look down the ballot: the Lt. Governor’s race is great.  Speier and Garamendi are both great candidates, and Figueroa…well she’s exciting.  Look past Governor Moonbeam and you’ll see a lot more interesting people running.  The Contorller’s race has been a very well run race.  Joe Dunn has run a great campaign focusing on his investigations of Enron, and John Chiang has run a fairly clean campaign as well.

Angelides and Westly are victims of the system that has developed in California.  They let their consultants convince them that they needed to go negative.  I don’t think it will make a huge difference in the general, but it certainly won’t help.

I think what I also need to include in that response is that these guys will be much better governors than Arnold.  Yes, they have run poor campaigns for the last 3 months or so, but is that a reason to just give up?  Hardly.  I mean, didn’t we all want to scream at Kerry sometimes in 2004 (say…the time when he didn’t bother to release his military records to end the Swift Boat crap).  Yet, we didn’t give up on him.  I think it’s easier for people to give up on state races, perhaps because they don’t feel like it’s quite as important as the presidency or a Senate seat or something like that.  But thinking that the states don’t matter contributed to our downfall on the federal level.  We are naive if we think that we can build a party without the states.

California is a leader in so many ways, and could be a leader in so many more ways.  Schwarzenegger has been impeding California’s leadership in the global community.  It is not the time to abdicate our leadership or throw our hands in the air and just give up.

Wilkes in the news

Brent Wilkes, the Duke Cunningham bribing, prostitute poker providing defense contractor, is all over the news lately.  He appears in the latest issue of Newsweek.  Good job Brent!

There is nothing unusual or illegal about a defense contractor with an open checkbook for campaign fund-raisers and seats to fill on a corporate jet. But federal prosecutors want to find out more about how Wilkes tapped into what may be one of Washington’s sweetest post-9/11 honey pots—secret defense and intelligence contracts that are often awarded without competitive bids or oversight but with plenty of congressional meddling. Wilkes appears to be at the center of a Washington scandal that has the potential to shake Capitol Hill and the Pentagon.
***
According to published reports and congressional and law-enforcement sources who did not want to be identified discussing a sensitive investigation, the Feds are also reviewing Wilkes’s ties to other powerful House leaders. Former GOP majority leader Tom DeLay, Armed Services Committee chairman Duncan Hunter and Appropriations Committee chairman Jerry Lewis all reportedly had dealings with Wilkes. None has been accused of any wrongdoing; a spokesman for Lewis said the congressman had not seen Wilkes for 10 years. Hunter’s spokesman said his boss urged the Pentagon to ignore congressional pressure on contracting, and DeLay’s lawyer had no immediate comment. (Newsweek 6/5/06)

And nobody wants to play with poor Brent Wilkes anymore.  Nobody goes to his poker prostitute parties, nobody gets him $10million contracts.  And nobody even wants to admit knowing the poor guy:

His life is getting lonelier. He has been dropped by charities; his office building is for sale; his federal contracts are drying up. Once a ubiquitous figure in San Diego politics, Wilkes might as well have ceased to exist. Former San Diego congressman Brian Bilbray, a Republican who was in the House until 2001 before retiring to become a lobbyist, is running for Duke Cunningham’s vacated seat. Bilbray told NEWSWEEK, “I may have met Brent once or twice, but I really do not remember.” Bilbray did discover that Wilkes had donated $7,000 to his campaigns, but the candidate has given the money to charity. “I wouldn’t know Wilkes if I saw him in the street,” said Bilbray.

Even his fellow lobbyists, like Brian Bilbray, are throwing the guy under the bus.  What indignation the man has suffered.  All this for trying to pursue the American dream.  And what’s the problem anyway?  Everybody loves poker these days.  And prostitution is the oldest profession.  It’s got a long, cherished history.  Poor, poor Brent.  I think it’s jealousy.

CA-4: Doolittle better be in on the action to get the deals done

(Updated for SacBee editorial – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE 6/4/06: The SacBee published an editorial today demanding to know the real reason for Doolittle’s involvement in the Homewood deal.  Here’s the money quote:
 

One can only hope Doolittle isn’t doing the work of Tahoe developers who want to buy Homewood. Possibly he is just sending a warning shot to Yurosek and his business partners. Based on a report by The Bee’s David Whitney, Yurosek didn’t fully involve Doolittle in negotiating key details of the transaction. His team was also slow to contribute money to the congressman’s re-election campaign.

See the flip for the full story…

From SacBee (via DumpDoolittle Blog)

The Homewood Mountain Resort’s ski area occupies the largest piece of developable property remaining in the Lake Tahoe basin. With elevations reaching 1,600 feet above the lake’s famed blue waters, the views from its slopes are spectacular. The property includes two lakes and crosses three watersheds.  And it’s for sale.

If owner Jeff Yurosek has his way, 1,086 acres will be sold to the U.S. Forest Service under a deal that will keep the struggling ski business open. The estimated $60 million to $65 million the property is likely to fetch will be used to build an expanded commercial center on land along Highway 89 that will remain privately held.  That plan was moving forward largely in secret until Rep. John Doolittle, R-Roseville, brought it to an abrupt halt this month.

Doolittle’s intervention is raising worries that instead of remaining open to public use, the property is edging closer to being carved into as many as 23 estate-sized lots for the superwealthy, and in the process opening new channels for pollution to reach the world-famous lake whose renowned clarity is a constant challenge.(SacBee 5/29/06)

You see, Doolittle doesn’t really much care about Lake Tahoe so much as he cares about seeing to it that our government is completely useless.  Well not entirely useless, because he still wants to be able to run for something and rake in his 15% cut of campaign donations.  And more importantly, ol’ 15% wants to make sure that nobody considers doing any deals in the Tahoe region without giving him credit.  The man needs to get some action for himself before he will allow anything, even anything beneficial, to happen.

Art Chapman, JMA Ventures president, said Yurosek had been contacted by Placer County Supervisor Bruce Kranz and told that a contribution to the congressman would be “appropriate.” But Chapman said he didn’t learn of the congressman’s opposition to the project until the morning of the fundraiser, which was several days after he and Yurosek had written their checks.

Doesn’t that just sicken you?  To me, those comments are beyond the pale and really head towards criminality.  But, you know, good luck on getting anything investigated in this Congress.  The only sure way that we are getting rid of ol’ 15% is a loss in November.

CA-50: Unhappy times in NRCC

From U.S. News (via [RandyMI at dKos ]http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/5/29/162037/594]):

Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy “Duke” Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP’s loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. “It is becoming more and more likely,” says one GOP strategist, “that Bilbray will squeak out a victory.” But another longtime Republican operative isn’t so sure. “This is a district we should never lose,” he says. “It’s the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem.”(Usnews.com 6/5/2006 (sic))

As we’ve talked about here recently, Francine Busby has a slight cash lead.  However the NRCC is desparate to keep this seat in GOP hands.  Lobbyist Brian Bilbray is the benificiary of that program.  We need to make sure that Francine can respond to the NRCC attack ads and dishonesty that they are spewing.

This race is not only winnable, it’s a race that, at this point, is our ours to lose.  Complaceny is now our biggest enemy.  The NRCC will go to great lengths to ensure that the lobbyist wins this seat (and furthering the K Street Project).  Check out our ActBlue page to donate to Francine’s campaign.

Behold the wrath of Nunez

This is almost Willie-esque of Fabian.  When Juan Arambula fails to vote for the bonds package and toe the party line, Fabian takes away his committee chair and moves him out of his cushy office to a small one in the dark recesses of the capitol.

A truce was called in the Assembly on Friday as Speaker Fabian Núñez, D-Los Angeles, said he was reinstating Arambula, D-Fresno, as chairman of the Committee on Jobs, Economic Development and the Economy.
***
Arambula abstained on all four bond votes in frustration that money for water storage wasn’t included in the $37 billion package, which was approved despite Arambula’s holdout. Voters will take up the bonds in November. Núñez was so angered by the move that he tossed Arambula out of his four-room office, forcing him and his staff into the smallest of Capitol digs.(SacBee 5/27/06)

Now, that’s discipline!  Let’s see Rahm or Nancy try to do that to the House Dems.  Forget Willie, that’s almost worthy of Delay-esque.  I guess everybody know’s who’s the boss in the Assembly.

The Death of SB 1437, the LGBT curriculum bill, and Arnold’s sly shift to the right

Governor Schwarzenegger’s Director of Communications, Adam Mendelsohn has thrown the right a bone by announcing that the governor will veto Sen. Kuehl’s SB 1437.

“The governor believes that school curriculum should include all important historical figures, regardless of orientation,” said Schwarzenegger’s director of communications, Adam Mendelsohn. “However, he does not support the Legislature micromanaging curriculum.”

Wednesday’s announcement signaled a death blow to the efforts of state Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica, the openly lesbian author of the measure, to obtain recognition for the contributions of gays, lesbians, transgender and bisexual people to the social and historical landscape.

Kuehl’s bill had passed the Senate on a 22-15 vote on May 11 and was awaiting hearings in the Assembly. She expressed disbelief that Schwarzenegger, who traditionally has withheld comment on legislation until it passes the Legislature and reaches his desk, has broken with his own precedent and made up his mind on a bill that still hadn’t been vetted by one house of the Legislature.(SacBee 5/26/06)

So what could the reason for announcing a veto of this bill?  Amongst all others?  Well, I can think of one reason and one reason only.  He wants to throw a bone to the right.  Listen, this bill would not cause any major altertations of the curriculum.  Current law already includes other minorities in barring “adversely reflecting” against the minorities.  It has not changed the schools.  This law would simply allow LGBT citizens to receive the same treatment as other minorities in the state.

And you can rest assured that the wing nuts will not be satisfied:

“We’re very pleased that Schwarzenegger is listening to the concerns of parents,” Thomasson said. “Now the governor needs to pledge to veto the two remaining transsexual, bisexual, homosexual bills, AB 606 and AB 1056. Parents and grandparents are demanding it.”

I’m pretty sure that Thomasson doesn’t speak for California’s parents; neither should Arnold.  There have been a few instances when Arnold has shown his true colors: he is no moderate.  Now we need to make sure that the California electorate understands that too.

CA-50, Busby has cash lead and other money issues from CA districts

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

An AP analysis of campaign finance reports has Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby with a CASH ADVANTAGE over lobbyist Brian Bilbrary. 

Democrat Francine Busby is outraising Republican Brian Bilbray in the high-spending California race to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in Congress, campaign finance reports filed Thursday show.

Busby had raised $2.25 million as of May 17, including $755,139 in the most recent fundraising period. She ended the reporting period with about $185,000 in cash on-hand to take her through the June 6 election.

Bilbray had raised just over $1 million in his bid for the San Diego area seat, including $630,055 in the most recent period. He ended up with just over $100,000 on-hand.(SF Chron 5/26/06)

Very rarely does a Dem have a cash advantage for open seats in even districts, let alone districts with a sizable GOP lead.  Busby has become the poster child of the netroots, partly because of the hubub surround the Duke-stir, partly becuase of the timing of the special election, and partly because she is a compelling candidate.  She has reached out to the netroots in a meaningful and substantial way.  Her campaign understands that the Internet is not merely an ATM, but a place to spread information, disseminate ideas, and formulate a vision for the election.

The article continues with a summary of the finance reports in other notable districts in California, CA-4 (Doolittle), CA-11 (Pombo), and CA-36 (Harman).  A quick table of that data is on the flip.


































































































Candidate District Party Total Raised Previous Quarter Cash-on-hand
Busby CA-50 D $2.55m $755K $185K
Bilbray CA-50 R $1m $630K $100K
15% Doolittle CA-4 R $1m $190K $265K
Mike Holmes CA-4 R $63K $12.5K $18K
Charlie Brown CA-4 D $145K $48K $45K
“Paid-for” Pombo CA-11 R $1.65m $280K $800K
Pete McCloskey CA-11 R $383K $180K $120K
Jerry McNerney CA-11 D $221K $57K $62K
Steve Filson CA-11 D $385K $95K $65K
Jane Harman CA-36 D $700K $101K $550K
Marcy Winograd CA-36 D $208K $67K $12K