I’ve been adding some polls to the Calitics Poll Headquarters (it’s on the left sidebar too). I’ve added Rasmussen and S-USA polls on the governor and the governor’s race. Also, I put polls on CA-50 special election. I’ll also be adding a lot more today and tomorrow.
All posts by Brian Leubitz
SB 1437 debate heats up
Sen. Sheila Kuehl’s SB 1437 is back in the news. The SacBee published an excellent article about the current debate:
Sen. Bill Morrow, R-Oceanside, agreed that bullying and harassment have no place in school. However, he doesn’t believe the bill is a panacea.
Morrow, who spoke out against the bill on the Senate floor, called the legislation unnecessary, noting there’s nothing in the state’s education code preventing schools or teachers from discussing homosexuality.
[Student gay activist Lance] Chih said he has had to seek out his own heroes in literature.
***
Chih believes there are lessons to learn. For example, the gay rights movement was sparked by civil disobedience. The 1969 Stonewall riots in New York was one of the first times in modern history a significant body of gay people resisted arrest when police raided gay bars. Students whose memories may include the slaying of Wyoming college student Matthew Shepard in 1998 could get a civics lesson on the subsequent push for hate crimes prevention. “It’s not talked about in U.S. history. It should be,” Chih said. (SacBee 5/23/06)
As Chih states, it’s not about any agenda. It’s about giving LGBT students the opportunity to thrive in educational settings. Health classes just don’t cover enough. LGBT students are far more likely to attempt suicide and generally have lower grades. This law will help LGBT youth deal with the coming out process and the questioning that comes during adolescence in addition to promoting tolerance.
Credit Rating Increases with a side of cynicism
From Dan Weintraub’s California Insider, a portion of Moody’s report describing the increase of California’s bond rating to A1:
California’s rating remains low compared to other states due to its ongoing fiscal challenges. The most immediate challenge is the state’s stubborn structural budget gap. Although moderate in size on its face — at less than 4% in the fiscal 2007 budget proposal — the gap remains a concern for three reasons: (i) its persistence after several years of good economic performance; (ii) the state’s still relatively narrow budget reserves; and (iii) the state’s high degree of reliance on tax revenue from volatile sources such as corporate net income, capital gains, exercised stock options, and high-income taxpayers generally. Although the conditions do not appear to be in place for a sharp high-end income decline in the near-term, this represents a significant area of potential exposure for the state. Any significant revenue underperformance in the near term would directly lead to a swelling of the structural imbalance and cause difficult budgeting challenges.(California Insider 5/22/06)
The upgrade, along with the similar move by Standard and Poor’s, will make the bonds substantially cheaper. For a quick history of our credit rating, see the Treasurer’s website. This is a really great thing for the state, it will save us millions of dollars on both outstanding and upcoming bond issuances. However, the cynicism showed is probably something that should be taken to heart by those in Sacramento. The windfall is not something that we should be counting on next year. We still have yet to really fix the structural deficit.
And the phrase “difficult budgeting challenges”, that’s a laugher huh? Every year has difficult budgetary challenges. Every year we hash out some sort of bizarre plan that makes nobody happy, but is required by the damn supermajority rules. If push comes to shove and there is a real revenue crunch we end up imploding (see: Davis, Gray).
In the past we sought to use the extra revenue in fashions that bought us peace in Sacramento. but that’s not necessarily what we need most. What we need most is a workable budget that kowtows to nobody, but succeeds in following a vision of long-term stability. The windfall should be used to ensure that the state can sustain economic hardships without resorting to political rarities.
CA-4: Doolittle’s Baby-Problems
The Buzz from the SacBee mentioned an article in the Washington Post about Doolittle’s wonderful campaign finance practice of using campaign funds to pay for baby-sitting for his 14 year old daughter:
CHILD CARE, most any parent knows, can be a huge expense. Some members of Congress, though, have found an innovative — and brazen — way to defray the cost: Their campaign funds pick up the tab when child care is needed because the candidate is out campaigning. A leader in this creative billing is Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-Calif.), who has had his campaign reelection committee and his leadership PAC pay $5,881 in child-care costs since 2001 for his daughter, now 14. This election alone, Mr. Doolittle’s campaign committees have paid almost $975 in child-care bills to a woman who lives near his family’s Oakton home.
***
This may be permissible under the lax guidance of the congressional enablers at the FEC. That doesn’t make it right. It’s the attitude of congressional entitlement to a subsidized lifestyle — cut-rate private jets, lavish private travel — that drives public disdain for Congress. Mr. Doolittle makes $165,200 a year as a member of Congress. His wife has already taken in close to $100,000 in commissions this election as his fundraiser. They should just pay the sitter, as other working parents do.(Washington Post 5/16/06)
But Doolittle has a habit of using campaign funds as his own personal piggy bank. He, like many other GOP congressman, see the letter of the law as the only boundry, and only their vision of the law. That they violate the spirit of laws, or any ethical constraints that most people would stick to seems to be a nonissue. Doolittle is amongst the most egregious examples of this. And it appears that the only thing that will stop him from running his own little fiefdom is a loss in November.
A sample of what Prop 82 could do for the state
The SacBee published an article outlinin Alpine County’s preschool program. The program offers free preschool for nearly every child in the county:
Like most 4-year-olds in California, Megan and Nathan Cruz spend their days away from home, in a bright colorful room where they draw, sing, socialize and learn the letters of the alphabet.
Unlike most children in California — whose parents pay an average $7,500 a year for child care — the twins attend a preschool that costs their parents nothing.The unusual program in Alpine County — a rugged 727-square-mile stretch of the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe — offers both a glimpse of California’s rural past and a vision of what could become the state’s educational future.
Using public money generated by cigarette taxes, Alpine County has already done what the rest of California is now contemplating under Proposition 82 on the June ballot. For the past three years, it has provided free preschool to nearly all children whose parents want it.
***
Kati Bell has two kids at the preschool — 3-year-old Sophie and 5-year-old Ryan. The family moved to Alpine County this fall, in part because of the preschool. In Palo Alto, Bell said, she paid $150 a day for her children’s preschool. Now preschool is free and her children couldn’t be happier.“They love it here,” Bell said. “If I come too early, they say, ‘Can we stay?’ ” (SacBee 5/20/06)
Prop 82 holds a lot of promise for the state. Yes, it has its fair share of flaws. But,as many reports have esitmated, we get $2.78 back from every dollar we invest in preschool programs. Now it’s up to the people of California if they want to make that investment.
SD-8: A primary campaign descending into the muck
As you can probably guess from my username, I live in San Francisco. More specifically, I live in SD-8, so I’m currently represented by Sen. Speier. She’s termed out and is running for Lt. Gov. However, the race to replace her has gotten really, really ugly in the last few days. In the last week, I received about 10 mailers. However, these 2 stuck out for their ugliness. First I received Nevin’s attack on Yee, which was soon followed by Yee’s attack on Nevin. Click on them to see them in greater detail. There’s more on the flip…
Nevin on Yee
Yee on Nevin
Both of these mailers are negative garbage. Both make me want to vote for Lou Papan. Oh yeah, did they not mention that there is another candidate running. Yeah, Lou Papan, the longime assemblyman from San Mateo county, is also running for the seat.
Personally, I’m not totally sure why Nevin decided to go so negative with this attack on Yee. It’s easily debunked. Yee has received only one contribution from the oil companies, and his record certainly doesn’t indicate that he is beholden to BigOil. But, that even being said, I’m not sure high gas prices are the most important issue in such progressive district. For one, I’m sure you could find many evironmentalists that aren’t that upset by high gas prices. Personally, I’d rather that money go to the oil companies in a windfall, but perhaps the high prices will begin to ween our state (and nation) off the bottle.
The prescription drug issues that Yee focused on are a bit easier to understand. Nevin has worked in a firm that does some lobbying. That immediately opens up the door to imputed positions. Nevin is just the victim of that. Whether Nevin actually worked against Prop 79 is unclear, but it’s certainly an overstatement to say that he is beholden to drug interests.
Of course, once again, we waste our time with meaningless attacks. Perhaps both of these candidates would be better off by saving their money for mailers that inform the candidates who they are, not attack their opponent.
Capitol Weekley says this of the race:
SD 8 – This district includes parts of San Francisco County and most of San
Mateo County.There’s been bad blood between Lou Papan and Mike Nevin since the 2001 redistricting, when Nevin accused Papan of drawing him out of an Assembly district to ease the path for Papan’s daughter, Gina. Papan denies the allegation, and even if it were true, it didn’t work, as Gina Papan lost to Gene Mullin. Conventional wisdom has Papan in the race to help draw votes away from the other San Mateo candidate, Nevin. But Nevin did pick up the endorsement of Leland Yee’s hometown newspaper, the San Francisco Chronicle. Capitol Weekley 5/18/06
For more about this nasty race, see [Around the Capitol], which has lots of articles about the race. Three taped debates will be airing on PeninsulaTV (Ch. 26), beginning on May 23. Check the website for showtimes.
California Must Lead on Climate Change
Governor Schwarzenegger announced his environmental plan last month, but ended up watering down the suggestions of his Climate action team. A spokesperson called Schwarzenegger’s manner of dealing with the environment “bit of a Jekyll and Hyde approach.” He does not provide the type of leadership on the climate change issues that we need. Yes, he is substantially better than the President. At least the governor has acknowledged that there is no more substantial debate (i.e. Science magazine did a review of 928 scholarly articles on the subject, they all said human activity was contributing to warming).
We need real leadership on this issue: We need a Democratic governor who is committed to reducing greehouse gases such as CO2. Why is this so important? Well, take a gander at these ads produced by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a oil-funded lobbying group. Essentially, the ads say that the more carbon dioxide the better. They are quite funny too. The exact quote: “Carbon Dioxide: They call it pollution, we call it life.” I don’t think I really need to go into the science here, but suffice it to say that the wingnuts will continue to push against environmental action. In California, we need to make sure that we are the leaders on this. We brought the world catalytic converters, we can do the same with CAFE standards, CO2 emissions, and more. And we can do a lot better without Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Calitics Poll Headquarters
Say hi to a new feature of Calitics: Calitics Poll HQ. You can find it on the left side, just below the about box. I’ll be working on collecting lots of polls together before and after the primaries. Today it only has the Field Poll for the governor race. Expect it to grow dramatically over the next week or so.
CA-4: The DCCC says it’s going to challenge 15% Doolittle
The DCCC is a really great bunch of people who are very successful. Ok, sorry, I need to stop laughing now. Anyway Rahm and the crew are finally considering supporting a candidate against 15% Doolittle:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Wednesday that it thinks it may have a shot at unseating Rep. John Doolittle, who is listed as among the most powerful members of the California congressional delegation in a nonpartisan survey out this week.
“The DCCC is very interested in this race and will possibly invest in it,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., the committee’s recruitment chief. Citing the Roseville Republican’s associations with key players in two congressional corruption scandals, Van Holleen said, “All the signs are good in this district.” (SacBee 5/18/06)
How forward looking of the DCCC. They are challenging a corrupt Republican. Wow, how ever did they come up with that idea? Ol’ 15% has been cheating hhis consituents and the country as a whole, and you are going to think about sending some money in this direction. Well, Representative, I suggest you think real hard about it. California has been very, very good to the DCCC, perhaps it’s about time that the DCCC returns some attention in this direction.
And to the Democrats in this race: they are Lisa Rea, a Sacramento-area insider who has worked at the California Legislature, Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force helicopter pilot, and Mike Hamersly, a former whistleblower on large tax shelter fraud and employee of the California franchise tax board. While it wouldn’t take much to improve upon 15% Doolittle, both Rea and Brown would be welcome additions to the California Congressional Delegation.
Calitics Poll Headquarters
Welcome to the Poll Headquarters. We’ll be posting notable
Polls
and Endorsements here. The dates are the date of release to the public,
not the dates of survey. The Governor related polls will be in the
main, congress, down-ballot, and other polls will be in the extended. Here
are the polls with primary data. If you know of any
additional polls, let me know. Thanks!
California Governor Polls
Phil Angelides (D) vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
Descriptions:
Field California Polls
The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates
of
survey. The Field Poll is the gold standard of California political
polls. I always trust the Field Poll when it’s in conflict with
another.
Rasmussen California Governor Polls
The Rasmussen poll is a computer polling operation. Its
results are
a little more questionable within California and can sometimes be
skewed towards the political right.
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and L.A. Times
Polls
The LA Times poll and the PPIC poll also have polls on down
ballot
races. I didn’t summarize them here, but click the links for the full
PDFs. The PPIC is known for in-depth research, and their survey guru,
Mark Baldassare, is highly respected for his statewide surveys. The LA
Times is, well, a major media organization. I’ll leave it at that.
Survey USA Governor Approval
Pollshttp://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=1137993a-c120-4ea6-bc97-017dd6931c94
Are on the flip. There are lots of crosstabs available at
their website.
Many of the links are PDFs.
Poll/Candidate | Angelides | Schwarzenegger | U/DK | Other | MoE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby 9/28/06 |
33.8 | 43 | 12 | ±3.5 | |
PPIC 9/26/06 |
31 | 48 | 15 | 6 | ±2 |
SUSA. 9/27/06 |
38 | 52 | 9 | 1 | ±4.5 |
Field 9/26/06 |
34 | 44 | 15 | 7 | ±3.8 |
Datamar 9/18/06 |
31.4 | 53.6 | 3.6 | 11.4 | ±2.3 |
Rasm. 9/12/06 |
39 | 47 | 14 | ±4.5 | |
Zogby 9/06 |
40 | 43.5 | ±3.5 | ||
Rasm. 8/31/06 |
42 | 48 | 10 | ±4.5 | |
PPIC 8/06 |
32 | 45 | 17 | 6 | ±2 |
SUSA. 8/28/06 |
38 | 52 | 8 | 1 | ±4.5 |
Zogby 8/06 |
40.3 | 45 | ±3.5 | ||
Rasm. 8/1/06 |
41 | 47 | 12 | ±4.5 | |
PPIC 7/06 |
30 | 43 | 19 | 8 | ±2 |
Field 7/25/06 |
37 | 45 | 15 | 3 | ±3.8 |
Zogby 7/06 |
44 | 42.3 | ±3.5 | ||
Rasm. 7/13/06 |
46 | 44 | 10 | ±4.5 | |
SJSU 7/6/06 |
37 | 44 | 14 | 5 | ±3.3 |
Zogby 6/06 |
44.6 | 44.5 | ±2.7 | ||
Datamar 6/5/06 |
34.3 | 53.5 | 12.2 | ±2.46 | |
Field 6/2/06 |
39 | 46 | 11 | ±3.8 | |
LA Times 5/26/06 |
46 | 45 | 8 | 1 | ±5 |
Rasm. 5/24/06 |
45 | 45 | 10 | ±4.5 | |
PPIC 5/06 |
38 | 38 | 24 | ±2 | |
Rasm. 4/17/06 |
36 | 49 | 15 | ±4.5 | |
Field 4/14/06 |
40 | 44 | 13 | ±3.8 | |
LA-Times 4/28/06 |
43 | 43 | 13 | 1 | ±5 |
SJSU 4/4/06 |
37 | 40 | ±3.3 | ||
PPIC 3/06 |
29 | 41 | 30 | ±2 | |
Rasm. 3/23/06 |
45 | 44 | 11 | ±4.5 | |
Field 3/2/06 |
39 | 39 | 20 | ±3.8 | |
Rasm. 2/13/06 |
40 | 41 | 19 | ±4.5 | |
Rasm. 1/24/06 |
39 | 41 | 20 | ±4.5 | |
Rasm. 12/15/05 |
44 | 40 | 16 | ±4.5 | |
Field 11/3/05 |
47 | 41 | 12 | ±3.8 | |
Field 9/7/05 |
43 | 40 | 17 | ±3.8 | |
Field 6/29/05 |
46 | 42 | 12 | ±3.8 | |
Field 2/25/05 |
35 | 52 | 13 | ±3.8 |
S-USA Schwarzenegger Approval
The actual Survey USA site has the ability to do demographic
breakdowns.
California Proposition Polls
Infrastructure Bonds
Poll/Prop | 1B: Transp. | 1C: Housing | 1D: Educ | 1E: Disaster | 84: Water | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | |
Field 9/29/06 |
52 | 36 | 12 | 58 | 28 | 14 | 52 | 33 | 15 | 51 | 36 | 13 | 50 | 30 | 20 |
Datamar 9/06 | 55.9 | 31.2 | 12.9 | 34.5 | 53.9 | 11.7 | 41.4 | 46.6 | 12.0 | 60.8 | 27.7 | 11.5 | 47.6 | 36.3 | 16.0 |
PPIC 8/06 |
50 | 38 | 12 | 57 | 32 | 11 | 51 | 39 | 10 | 56 | 35 | 9 | 40 | 45 | 15 |
Field 7/28/06 |
54 | 27 | 19 | 33 | 42 | 25 | 48 | 37 | 15 | 47 | 33 | 20 | 49 | 31 | 20 |
Field 6/5/06 |
57 | 24 | 19 | 39 | 38 | 23 | 48 | 34 | 18 | 58 | 25 | 17 | N/a | N/a | N/a |
PPIC 5/06 |
62 | 32 | 6 | 60 | 37 | 3 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 62 | 34 | 4 | N/a | N/a | N/a |
Other Initiatives
Poll/Prop | 83: Sex Offenders | 85: Anti-choice | 86: Cigarette Tax | 87: Oil & Alt. Energy |
90: Em. Dom. | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | Yes | No | U/DK | |
Datamar 9/06 | 79.4 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 48.5 | 42 | 9.5 | 52.1 | 41 | 6.9 | 43.4 | 44.0 | 12.6 | 61.3 | 24.0 | 14.7 |
Field 8/2/06 |
76 | 11 | 13 | 44 | 45 | 11 | 63 | 32 | 5 | 52 | 31 | 17 | 46 | 31 | 23 |
PPIC 7/06 |
N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | N/a | 61 | 23 | 16 | N/a | N/a | N/a |
Down Ballot Polls
Candidate | Field Poll 8/1/06 (MoE: ±5.2) |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
|
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
John Garamendi (D) | 48 | 46 | 17 | 37 |
Tom McClintock (R) | 38 | 40 | 17 | 43 |
Attorney General |
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
Jerry Brown (D) | 54 | 45 | 36 | 19 |
Chuck Poochigian (R) | 33 | 9 | 7 | 84 |
Secretary of State |
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
Debra Bown (D) | 38 | 10 | 6 | 84 |
Bruce McPhereson (R) | 35 | 19 | 9 | 72 |
Treasurer |
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
Bill Lockyer (D) | 52 | 43 | 16 | 41 |
Claude Parrish (R) | 27 | 9 | 5 | 86 |
Controller |
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
John Chiang (D) | 38 | 13 | 5 | 82 |
Tony Strickland (R) | 27 | 11 | 8 | 81 |
Insurance Commissioner |
Poll Support | Favorable | Unfavorable | No Opinion |
Cruz Bustamante (D) | 43 | 38 | 43 | 19 |
Steve Poizner (R) | 39 | 7 | 8 | 85 |