All posts by Brian Leubitz

A quick note of Calitics disdain for Daniel Weintraub

I usually leave the SacBee editorial bashing to jsw. but I feel I must point out the complete biased garbage that Mr. Weintraub is spewing.  Now first, it’s obvious that Wientraub prefers Westly to Angelides.  Fine, I can handle that, but the following excerpt is pretty much garbage:

Angelides is the angry one, the “anti-Arnold” who has opposed almost everything the governor has tried to do since he was elected in October 2003.
***
Westly is the earnest one. He worked with Schwarzenegger briefly during the governor’s first year in office before pronouncing himself disappointed in Schwarzenegger and turning against him. A former government bureaucrat and college professor who struck it rich as an early employee of e-Bay, Westly’s top priority is going after the underground economy to collect taxes that are owed but haven’t been paid. (Sac Bee

Not particularly glowing reviews of either candidate.  Frankly, I’m quite sick of the media waiting for some other candidate to enter the race (Reiner, Beatty,…).  Both of these candidates are good candidates.  They are both far more qualified than Governor Schwarzenegger.  They both have more experience than he had, more ideas than he has, and better visions for the State. 

And, no, the Democratic Party does not suffer from a lack of ideas.  It’s the media, in this case Weintraub, that suffers from a desire to see a consistent story borne out: Poor pathetic Dems who can’t win the big one.  That story won’t play this time Mr. Weintraub.

CA-24 Gallegly out

In a surprise announcement, Rep. Elton Gallegly announced his retirement. CQ Politics (via dKos) still has it rated as a safe GOP seat, but the late announcement could leave the GOP holding an empty bag:

Friday’s retirement announcement by Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly, just hours before the filing deadline for the June 6 primary in California’s 24th District, was a surprise to just about everybody — including, apparently, the people who work for him. Staffers at his district office in Simi Valley said they were unaware of the congressman’s decision until they received his press release.

Shock quickly turned to political chaos, as it was immediately unclear how Gallegly could be replaced on the Republican primary ballot, and by whom.
***
The district, which takes in most of Ventura County and a slice of Santa Barbara County north of Los Angeles, is reliably Republican under normal circumstances. It favored President Bush with 56 percent of the vote in 2004 and re-elected Gallegly by wide margins.

CQ rates the race as Safe Republican, but will watch developments carefully to determine if any change is necessary. Please visit CQ’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.(CQPolitics.com)

Maybe we can steal a seat for a couple of years?? Maybe? It would be nice…

Bond Deal Apparently Dead

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

It looks like the bond package will not be on the June ballot after the Senate rejected the Democratic plan on party lines.  Apparently Arnold Schwarzenegger was not capable of herding his GOP cats into voting for this compromise plan.

Hopes dimmed for putting a massive infrastructure bond plan on the June ballot when the state Senate failed early today to muster a two-thirds vote on a $47.3 billion package authored by Democratic leaders that Republicans denounced as a “sham.”

The 24-12 Senate floor vote at 12:30 a.m., which did not include any Republican support, fell three votes short of the 27 votes necessary to keep the plan moving toward the Assembly and possibly derailed efforts to put it on the June primary ballot.(Sac Bee 3/11/06)

It’s really too bad that the GOP has to play these games with the people of California.  It’s also too bad that a 24-12 vote was insufficient to pass the measure.  I must again reitirate my anger over the extreme supermajority rule for taxes and bond packages.  A small minority,  in this case the GOP, should not be able to stall the will of a large majority.  It is an atrocious debasement of democracy and the represenative form of government that we hold so dear in this state and the nation. 

That being said, I think this was a good plan.  Again from the Sacramento Bee:

The Democratic plan included nearly $19 billion for transportation, more than $13.4 billion for K-12 schools and $4.15 billion for flood protection and levee repair, among other items.

Arnold is still optimistic, but we’ll have to see if anything can happen this weekend.

Bond deal close?

(Forgot to promote – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE: No deal yet, but the recent stories say that it’s getting close.

“We’re very close to coming to an agreement,” Schwarzenegger said Thursday afternoon, just before settling into one of a string of meetings he has conducted in his office the past four days with Democratic and Republican leaders.

“We have some hurdles to overcome and some obstacles to overcome,” Schwarzenegger said, “but I have great hopes.”

The Senate and Assembly had scheduled late sessions Thursday but adjourned so the governor and legislative leaders could continue talks on a compromise package to build highways, schools and levees.

The Assembly adjourned until Monday, but told members to be on call through the weekend. The Senate was to return today.State Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, promised a vote by midnight tonight.(Sac Bee 3/10/06)

It looks like a deal for the bond package is getting close.  If it happens soon, it will be able to get on the June primary ballot (typically a better time to pass these sorts of things.)  The deadline for the June ballot is tomorrow (3/10/06), but it looks like legislative leaders and the Governor are going to be able to come to an agreement. 

Hat tip to Julia Rosen, especially for the visual of somebody walking around in a duck suit.  That made  me laugh, mostly because it really describes the craziness of the current atmosphere in Sacramento. The Bee provides more details of the proposed deal:

The elements most discussed seem to be these: education (state funds to match local funds to build schools); water and flood control (regional water projects, levee rapairs, etc.); transportation (a balance between transit and roadway projects); housing (projects targeting low-income residents); and natural resources (funds for coastal preservation and state conservancies).

There are other bond ideas that may not make this package – funds for state prisons, county jails, courthouses and seismic retrofit fixes for hospitals. If those items don’t make it into the package, the governor and Legislature are likely doing the state a considerable service. There are some serious questions about making such investments with state funds that could go to other needs. Beware of last-minute desires to end a debate on, say, water needs, by simply throwing more money at it.(SacBee 3/9/06)

Well, obviously this plan isn’t quite the grand dream Ahnold had in mind, but I actually think this could be a good thing.  We desperately need infrastructure improvements.  The levees need more attention, and affordable housing is a laudable goal.  And the costs are pegged at a more  reasonable figure…always an important feature when it comes to my analysis.

On the down side, high speed rail keeps raising its head.  Personally, I think the costs would outweigh the benefits on this one.  We have a very functional air service between the major regions of California, do we need the high speed rail?  Would enough people ride it to make it worthwhile?  I’m not so sure.

And then there’s the political aspect.  A success in the bond deal would give Arnold a big boost in the general election.  That is why he really wants this on the June ballot.  But for Dems, it can’t be seen as a good thing to hold up infrastructure improvement.  It be like insulting Mom’s apple pie.

As for what was left out, I’m ok with not building more prisons.  We need to get rid of 3 strikes and other BS like that which is filling them up.  However, we do need more courts.  The court system is working on a fraction of the budget they should be getting.  Also, water storage is one of those big concerns that eventually we will have to deal with.  Southern California’s water needs aren’t just going to go away.  Someday we are going to have to deal with water concerns in a more meaningful way.  Apparently today is not that day.  But, that’s ok, they did what was possible, for now.

Prop 82 Polls and Troubles

A poll on Prop 82 has come out showing some strength going into March:

With about 90 days until the June election, 55 percent of likely voters support the Preschool for All measure, compared with 34 percent against and 11 percent undecided. Oakland Tribune 3/8/06

So, support is running pretty high, but not quite high enough to call this a slam dunk.  As I’ve said before, I am very uncomfortable with the way that this Proposition isolates funding from legislative control, creating another sector of the state government that is not truly accountable.  That being said, I think preschool in general is a good idea. 

However, Prop 82 is now having some other problems as well.  Check the flip…

Sen. Tom Torlakson, D-Antioch, has withdrawn his support.  Coming after Perata’s withdrawal of support last week, this is not a good sign.  Prop 82 has more than its share of supporters, but if they keep falling away as election day draws closer, it faces a difficult run.

But the luke-warm support isn’t the only problem that Prop 82 faces.  AG Lockyer has publicly suggested that there might be a probe into funding from Reiner’s Prop 10 funds.  SUch a crossover in funds would be against the law and could create a possibility of invalidating the election or taking it off the ballot. 

Prop 10 is a really good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) example of the domains of no-legislative oversight.  The legislature has very little control over the spending decisions made by the board headed by Reiner.  It has come under much fire recently for some of these spending decisions. This is the result of some really bad policy-making by ballot box in the form of Prop 13, which handcuffed the hands of the legislature from raising any new revenues for the state.  Boy do we ever need another proposition to get rid of Prop 13’s more draconian provisions.

A Conversation with Phil Angelides

Phil Angelides’ campaign invited a few bloggers to a conference call this afternoon.  As a starting point, I must point out that I am impressed that Angelides is reaching out to the blogging community.  The conference call was an excellent opportunity to ask him a few questions and get a sense of the man behind the candidate.  Considering that he is running against a former Ebay executive, he has done an excellent job of using technology to his benefit.  For that alone I am impressed.

Details of the call on the flip…

So, Phil began by discussing the goals of his campaign and why he wants to be governor.  Going through his backstory (which can be found at his website) and strolling through his beginnings in community organizing.  He of course highlighted his time as chairman of the California Democratic Party and his support of Sens. Boxer and Feinstein.  They are now supporting him.  I suppose it helps to have friends and a history.

He pounced on Arnold, attacking him for reducing support for higher education and the Healthy Families insurance program.  The thing he really pushed is how different he is from Arnold.  This is his strongest selling point for the primary: Phil Angelides never signed on with Arnold’s bizarre agenda.  And for that one has to give him credit.

Another point of interest: Frank Russo, an attorney in the East Bay who is working on establishing a blog, asked about the nature of the campaign.  Phil promised to run a principled campaign, “a campaign that will make California proud.”

Finally, the state’s infrastructure came up.  Jonathon Singer of mydd.com asked a general question about the bonding package.  He gave a standard political answer about Arnold’s focus not being in the right place.  Too much highways, not enough mass transit, etc.  I followed up with a question about the delta flood plain issue.  While he did not address my point blank question, of whether he supported a moratorium on construction in selected flood plains, he did address the long term flood control issue.  Phil highlighted the fact that we need more federal dollars for the levees as well as the possibility of stakeholders paying for some of these programs.

All in all,  I think it was a good process of feeling out Angelides a little bit.

A quick Francine Round-up

I just wanted to get some stuff from Francine Busby’s campaign on the front page.  We’ve had lots of stuff about the Rs in the campaign, and I thought it would be great to hear about Busby’s campaign straight from her.  So, in addition to the audio that BigDog04 posted, this is her Democratic Radio Address to the Nation (mp3).  She also has a whole bunch of articles about her campaign on her website, her press page has most of them.  Check it out.

Huh? Flood Control or Not , Governor?

Arnold, during the recall and now, claims that he is trying to be an “enviromental governor.” He issues nice platforms  says that he is tough on global warming and makes some pretty nice speeches. And you have to give him some credit.  At least he doesn’t continue on with the lack of evidence baloney:

I say the debate is over – We know the science, we see the threat, and the time for action is now. World Environment Day 6/1/05

But unfortunately, you can’t have it both ways.  He wants to control environmental threats, protect Californians and not injure businesses.  But as they say in the world you can only pick two.  One has to be sacrificed.

And it’s the same with the levee situation in the Sacramento Delta. He says he wants to protect the people living there as well as potential people who want to move there and, of course, to protect development interests in the region.  But you can’t have it all.  So, he’s going to let developers continue building in the flood plain, even while acknowleding that we need to spend $6 Billion in flood protection.  Here’s his logic:

“The reason I don’t like to go toward not building — there are some people who believe that’s the way to go — is that, if you say to yourself, let’s not build in flood prone areas, what do we say about earthquake prone areas?” Schwarzenegger said in an interview with The Bee. “Then you say, the Bay Area, it has a lot of earthquakes…Should no one build in the Bay Area?”

Of course, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the flaw in that logic.  In the Bay Area, we have earthquake codes.  We do not build buildings anymore that do not meet a very strict level of earthquake stability.  In the Flood Plain, besides building every house on stilts (which I don’t see happening), what are you going to do?  If a flood comes in the next ten years before the money from the bond package is spent to protect the Flood Plain, what happens then?  Well, all of that development is destroyed with the possibility of death thrown in for the residents.  So, yes, I would not build a rickety building in the Bay Area, but nor should we build in the flood plain until we have given those communities the best possible shot of surviving the natural disasters that are sure to arrive.

New Field Polls: Governor Race Neck and Neck

The Field Corp has released two major polls in the last two days.  The first (PDF) was a poll on Gov. Schwarzenegger involving his approval ratings, his budget, and the bond proposals.  His approval numbers are up to 40% with 49% disapproval.  His bond package is heavily supported: 56% for to 27% against. However, one must take this for what it is.  It doesn’t compare other plans to the governor.  So what they are really polling on is whether we need to do infrastructure improvement through a bond program.  It would be interesting to see a poll with a comparison plan allowing for choices between the various bond proposals.  However, that’s not likely to come as the deadline for the June ballot is rapidly approaching.

The more recent poll (PDF) concerned the gubenatorial campaign.  Currently Steve Westley has a four point lead on the Governator, which is within the MOE (+/- 6%).  Angelides is tied with Schwarzenegger at 39%.  However, Ahnold’s “unlikely to vote for” group decreased from 55% to 47%.

Last year at about this time, a 56% majority of voters said they were inclined to re-elect Schwarzenegger as this state’s Governor. However, since then voter opinions of the Governor have soured considerably. In four subsequent Field Poll surveys conducted since then, the proportions of voters inclined to re-elect the Governor have dropped to the 34% to 39% range. The current survey finds just 37% favoring his re-election at this time, 47% not inclined to support him and 16% undecided. This represents a decline in the percentage of voters disinclined to reelect the governor compared to October and an increase in the proportion undecided.
One factor working against the Governor is that only 65% of Republicans are inclined to back him for re-election, 14% are disinclined and an  unusually large 21% are undecided. (Field Poll 3/2/06)

The effects of the union barrage following the Special Election are fading somewhat.  While Arnold is attempting to pull off a new modeate appearance, the electorate is not totally sure how to treat him.  His cozy relationship with McClintock scares some voters (it does me anyway) and the unions haven’t really forgiven him.  On Tuesday’s California Report (KQED), Art Polaski, E.D. of California Labor Federation, claims that he’s still waiting for the Governor’s phone call.  And until he makes peace the unions, it will be hard for Schwarzenegger to win any elections, special or otherwise.

Perata Rejects Reiner’s initiative

Don Perata, Senate President Pro Tempore, has mad some very loud grumblings against Rob Reiner’s preschool initiative.  And good for him.  It’s about time somebody stood up to some of these good sounding propositions which slice money off from the control of the Legislature and the traditional Budget Process.  This program is expensive and there is no reason to spend this money. Perata said the following in an interview:

And I think there are some flaws there that are I think fatal. … There’s no means test, and so it looks to me like it would be really a boon for middle-to upper-middle-class families, though it would not serve equally – it would not provide equal access. There’s no mandate in there for county superintendents to use anything other than school districts, and if you come from a community like mine, where community-based organizations – or what economists call NGOs – they provide a huge swath of social and health care services. … So that’s another flaw. Spending $8,000 for three hours is more than some school districts’ K-12 can spend for an entire day. And, I mean, the list kind of goes on, unfortunately. Sac  Bee 3/1/06

Well, now that somebody said it, does anybody want to convince me that Prop 82 is a good idea.  And if it is a good idea, why shouldn’t it go through the traditional legislative process?