All posts by Brian Leubitz

Bay Area

An univited guest to our state?

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Uh-oh…looks like The Pres and The GOvernator are having a little squabble.  From the Hotline Compilation of news stories…

An Uninvited Guest
 Robert Novak writes that Pres. Bush is scheduled to appear in Los Angeles 10/20, ignoring Schwarzenegger’s request that he stay out of the state leading up to the special election (Chicago Sun-Times,10/16).
 As an incumbent and “major Hollywood celebrity,” Schwarzenegger has a built-in fundraising edge that is helping “fatten his campaign accounts — whether he exploits them explicitly or not.” He and his aides say he “cannot be influenced” by contributions. But good-gov’t types say “the perception is there,” and Dems say he’s being hypocritical because he said he wouldn’t accept money from people with business before the state (Delsohn, Sacramento Bee, 10/16).

Bay Area

San Diego Mayoral Election News

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It’s not getting the same kind of press as the special election, but the San Diego mayoral race is an interesting contest as well.  From Hotline at nationaljournal.com:

Racked by scandal, San Diego is choosing a new slate of leaders. “Polls suggest that former Police Chief Jerry Sanders has a comfortable lead over Councilwoman Donna Frye. He’s a Republican, former Red Cross and United Way official and born-again tax-fighter. She’s a Democrat and surf-shop owner who has dared suggest the city may need a half-cent boost in sales tax to dig its way out of the worst fiscal mess in its history. Even in a mini-era in which everything else at City Hall is topsy-turvy, mayoral politics seem to be following the pattern seen repeatedly in the last three-plus decades. A moderate beats a liberal. A Republican beats a Democrat unless the Republican is tarred as a lackey of land developers. The candidate who pledges fealty to the local anti-tax orthodoxy has an advantage over one who does not. Frye has a smattering of Democrats, women’s groups and private-sector labor unions. Public-employee unions, criticized by both candidates for the city’s $2-billion pension deficit, are staying neutral. A poll by DataMar Inc., a local polling firm unaligned with either candidate, showed Sanders leading Frye 47% to 40%, with 12% undecided. He led among Republicans 80% to 11%. She led among Democrats but by a smaller margin, 65% to 27%.” (Perry, Los Angeles Times, 10/9)

We all know that Donna Frye won the original election over Murphy.  The fact that some people didn’t bubble in “write-in” cost the city millions of dollars and one corrupt mayor.  Sanders, while not as dirty as Murphy, is not what San Diego needs right now.  Frye will clean out that city, balance their books, and repair the city’s image.

Uncategorized

The Stakes of the Governor’s Mansion

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They are certainly high for organized labor in California.  If they lose on Nov. 8 of this year, GOP-leaning Chamber of Commerce type groups will begin to dominate the political landscape.  

They only dominate Arnold now, but if he manages to win these Propositions, who knows what efforts they will bring to bear in the future.  As it stands, Ahnold killed most of labor’s bills while signing most of big business’s bills:

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s weariness with unions and the Legislature — two institutions whose influence he is trying to curb through the special election he called for next month — was on full display as he dispatched many of the ideas lawmakers approved this year.

Often agreeing with the California Chamber of Commerce, one of the main architects of his agenda in the Nov. 8 election, the Republican governor vetoed many of labor’s top priorities.

Schwarzenegger’s actions made unions, who are leading the opposition to his ballot proposals, among the bigger losers in a year when the governor found much to offer those on both sides of many issues, including the environment, gay rights and consumer protection.

Though Schwarzenegger signed a number of union-sponsored measures — in some cases, against the wishes of his business allies — labor’s achievements were light years away from the heady days when Schwarzenegger’s predecessor, Democrat Gray Davis, routinely approved ambitious union requests.

“Organized labor in California, which is really a cornerstone of the labor movement in this country, is on the ropes,” said Larry Gerston, a professor of political science at San Jose State University. “If you’re the forces of business and are anti-tax, and you see this kind of success here, you’ve got to be licking your lips in terms of what’s going to happen in 2006.”

Over the last month, Schwarzenegger rejected measures that would have cracked down on employers who delay paying workers’ compensation claims or fail to pay the minimum wage or overtime. He declined to raise the minimum wage, provide unemployment insurance to striking workers who are locked out, or pay particularly productive agricultural and garment workers more money during their rest breaks.

No big suprise here, but worth noting.

Los Angeles Area

LA AIDS Walk

I just wanted to plug the  LA AIDS Walk on Sunday, Oct. 16 for all of you LA people.  I know there are several here.  I volunteer for the Walks in NYC, SF, and LA, so I’ll be there bright and early.

I wanted to post this so you have enough time to raise lots of money!  You can sign up and collect donations online, so no bringing some stupid form to work.

And if you’re going to be there, shoot me an email.  I’d like to say hi to some of the cool Calitics readers.

Bay Area

Pombo: I think there are some owls who aren’t fans

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Wouldn’t it be great to take down Pombo.

From Roll Call (Subscription required):

CA-11
Incumbent: Richard Pombo (R)
7th term (61 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican
Democrats dream of knocking off Pombo, the controversial chairman of the House Resources Committee. Three Democrats have entered the race so far, with retired airline pilot Steve Filson considered the most promising at this stage. But the party’s strongest potential candidates remain on the bench, so there is little hope of an upset.  Still, this race could get interesting. Former Rep. Pete McCloskey (R-Calif.), angered over Pombo’s attempts to alter the Endangered Species Act, has threatened to challenge Pombo in the GOP primary.

Maybe a nice dirty primary with a fight over natural resources would be the ticket.  I imagine that Pombo’s endangered species moves have angered more than just McCloskey.  

I don’t know much about Filson, McNerney or any of the other candidates.  But in these heady days, maybe it’s enough to be an outdoorsy Democrat without the stain of corruption to beat a guy like Pombo.

Uncategorized

The Controversial SUSA Proposition Poll

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In a diary yesterday, a poll by SUSA concerning Arnold’s Props came to our attention. (Thanks Alliance!)  But now there appears to be a little controversy regarding that poll.  From today’s Mattier and Ross:

— And on Proposition 76, Survey USA found 59 percent going for the measure to allow the governor to cut spending if the state doesn’t have enough money to cover the tab.

Just last month, the Public Policy Institute poll found that only 26 percent of voters surveyed approved of the idea and 63 percent opposed it.

Why the difference?

Maybe it’s that the Survey USA question didn’t mention that school funding could be affected by the measure, “and that’s right in the ballot title,” said Field pollster Mark DiCamillo.

“We ask our question in 35 words. They ask their questions in 105 words,” responded Survey USA’s Jay Leve, adding that sometimes the actual ballot language is deliberately misleading.

It won’t come as a shock that Todd Harris from the governor’s team agreed with Survey USA’s take.

“People won’t be using the ballot language to make their decision,” Harris said. “They’ll be using what they hear in the television advertising.”

By the way, KPIX news bosses haven’t aired the poll just yet — they want to take a closer look at the data.

The numbers were suspiciously different from PPIC’s poll, and I guess we know why now.  No word as to why Prop77 was so different as well.  I’ll be eagerly waiting more polling data on the Props.

Uncategorized

Does Steve Young have a chance to win?

From a post by silence in the OC Election Day Diary:

It looks like we’re going to have a general election in December. Its an interesting match-up:
Campbell (R)
Gilchrist (AI)
Young (D)
Tiritilli (G)
Cohen (L)
The real question is whether Gilchrist (the founder of the Minuteman vigilante project) siphons enough votes away from Campbell to enable Young to win in the general election. I’ve got a nasty suspicion that the Republicans might do something like fund Tiritilli to try and offset Gilchrist’s capture of the far right.

Now, I think there are several different questions here.

1) Where did Brewer’s support come from?
Was it,as we discussed earlier, Dems crossing over to vote for her?  Many of these voters would probably support Young over Campbell.  And even if they aren’t Dems, are they sufficiently turned off by Campbell to vote for Young?

2) What will become of the rest of the GOP horde?  
There were a lot of GOP candidates, and a lot of voters for said candidates.  Campbell himself had 46%.  That’s a lot.  He essentially needs to pick up only 4%.  Economics would have you believe that there is no way that Campbell will lose a significant portion of that 46% due to your old preference ordering theory.  In other words, why would people abandon Campbell when they have fewer choices?  So, barring meltdown, he will probably take that 46%.  This puts Young in a difficult position.  It will be hard to get to 46%.

3) What’s the deal with Gilchrist?
Who the hell knows?  But the question remains as whether he can break into any of Campbell’s support.  The great hope for Young has to be that Gilchrist will come on strong in the coming few months.  He should be an attractive candidate for conservatives with his anti-immigration message.  Ultimately, he may force Campbell to move to far to the right for some voters on this issue.

I’ll close with the quote from the propagandizing rag OC Register:

Young, who is making his first foray into elective politics, beat out three other Democrats, including UCI business professor John Graham. Graham had tried three successive times to oust Cox, now chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. But Young got the Democratic Party endorsement after convincing party leaders that he would run an aggressive campaign and was willing to invest substantial personal resources in the effort.

“It’s good news, but it could be better,” Young said. “We need to mobilize the Democratic base and get the donors from that base to pony up the money. That’s where the power is in politics.”

Wylie Aitken, head of the Orange County Democratic Foundation and an engineer of Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s 1996 victory over former Rep. Bob Dornan, reluctantly says he doesn’t believe a Democrat has a chance in the 48th.

“I think Young is an outstanding candidate, more in line with the viewpoints of people living in that community,” said Aitken. “But I don’t think he has any chance. What does that tell you about people who have decided to vote along party lines without any regard of what happens to their neighbors and the rest of the country?”

Indeed what does that say?  Well, Steve Young, in my opinion, gives us the best opportunity to pull off the miracle that it would take to pick up CA-48.  Sure would be great to prove them wrong, wouldn’t it?

Diaries & Misc.

Why Does Arnold Hate Fruit?

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No, I mean actual fruit.  Particularly fresh fruit.  It turns out that he found yet one more special interest that he does like.  From the LA Weekly:

[Arnold]insisted, too, on a third bill, which appropriated $18.2 million for a fresh-fruit breakfast program for low-income students. This was “very important legislation,” in the assessment of Ken Hecht, executive director of the San Francisco–based nonprofit nutrition group California Food Policy Advocates. “The program would introduce a large number of kids to fresh fruit,” Hecht said, “and if they eat that, they’ll eat much less of the junk food that’s putting so much weight on young people.”

But on the evening of September 7 — the night before the Assembly adjourned — Los Angeles Democrat Jackie Goldberg, who chaired the Assembly Education Committee, to which the bill had been assigned, was stunned to see that the bill, unceremoniously re-referred to the Agriculture Committee, had reached the floor with its 12 references to “fresh” fruit and vegetables eliminated and replaced by a dozen references to “nutritious” fruit and vegetables. Goldberg asked Republican Assembly leader Kevin McCarthy, who’d become the rewritten bill’s chief sponsor, to explain the changes.

“First, he said it referred to raisins and nuts, and I said, ‘Fine,’ ” Goldberg recalled. “Then, the word was there were some seasons when they couldn’t find fresh fruit.” Goldberg then proposed that the bill refer to “fresh and minimally processed” fruit that was freeze-dried but devoid of additional sugar or salt preservatives. “Peaches in their own juices,” Goldberg said. “But the Governor’s Office said no to that.” Lobbyists for the canning industry and the governor’s people, working discreetly behind the scenes, insisted on including canned fruit under the scope of the bill. It was in that form, over Goldberg’s and other progressives’ objections, that the bill passed and was signed by Schwarzenegger last week.

And what, pray, could have influenced Arnold to muck up his anti-obesity, healthy-food breakfasts for California kids with countless cans of processed food? Adducing causality in these matters is always an imperfect science, but we do know that as of September 12, the campaign committees that Arnold controls had received $421,000 from the Dole Food/Castle & Cook group of processed-fruit companies, and another $319,000 from Dean Cortopassi, CEO of San Tomo, a San Joaquin Valley food canner and processor. That’s a total of $740,000 in canned-fruit moola from just two large contributors. If that kind of money couldn’t buy a decent legislative outcome now and then, the damage to the lobbyist’s faith in the system would be beyond calculation.

So, he says he hates special interests, but as we all know, it’s only special interests that don’t give him money that he hates.