If McCain wins California in November, he almost certainly will become the next president of the United States. Barack Obama would find it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to receive the 270 needed electoral votes without the 55 from California. He could conceivably still win the election if he is able to make up those electoral votes by winning almost all of the swing states, which McCain is highly competitive in.
On the surface, McCain looks like a reasonably good match for California. He is a relatively moderate Republican, he is strong on the environment, he talks about low taxes and ending waste, he retains a somewhat maverick image, and he could be popular with independents. He is, broadly speaking, in the same mold as California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, who will campaign vigorously for him.
But there is a one big difference between Schwarzenegger and McCain, and it has enormous political implications: Schwarzenegger supports abortion rights and McCain does not. This single issue has the capability of being the deciding factor for whether California goes Republican or not. So McCain has no chance of winning the state, right? Not necessarily, he may have a chance to win over the presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama.
Barack Obama supports giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, which is extremely unpopular among a majority of Californians. Schwarzenegger successfully exploited opposition to such drivers licenses in both of his elections, and McCain would have a shot at winning California by exploiting it also. Dan Schnur, who was McCain’s communications director in 2000 and is now a political strategist based in California, says the drivers license issue could trump the abortion issue when it comes to McCain. A majority of Californians do not support legislation for allowing illegal immigrants to receive drivers licenses. “Even some Democrats who are pro-choice would turn to McCain over the issue of drivers licenses,” Schnur said. “There is a pretty straightforward template for winning California: You do what Schwarzenegger did two years ago, which is run to the middle on the environment and most social issues, draw a stark line on taxes and an even starker line on illegal immigration and driver’s licenses.”
Most people do not know the make up of California’s voters; there is a broad middle there and it will go for the right kind of candidate. According to the California Secretary of State’s office, California has a current voter registration that is 43.0 percent Democratic(6.7 million voters), 33.3 percent Republican (5.4 million voters) and 19.4 percent Independent (2.9 million voters). This means that California is a blue state, but with enough Independents to shift the balance to John McCain.
The current Governor of California is Arnold Schwarzenegger, a pro-choice Republican, who deeply and sincerely supports fellow Republican John McCain. In endorsing McCain, Schwarzenegger lauded the Arizona senator’s crusade against wasteful spending, his national security credentials and his environmental and economic stewardship. Schwarzenegger is highly popular among those 2.9 million independent voters who are still deciding on which candidate to vote for. His endorsements and rigorous campaigning for McCain just might make the case to the undecided voters as to why McCain will be the better president for the United States.
The Hispanic vote in the Golden State is also a huge factor, 14% of likely voters are Hispanic or of Hispanic descent. McCain’s popularity with Hispanics may give a boost in the numbers, allowing him to win the state. A majority of Hispanic voters were spilt between Hillary Clinton and John McCain, with Obama getting a small percentage. If John McCain can continue to appeal to these voters they could easily give him the state.
When Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race and endorsed Barack Obama, a majority of Clinton supporters were expected to support Obama. Now some former Clinton supporters are supporting John McCain, who may just tip the scales in favor of John McCain. If he can continue to appeal to Clinton supporters and the 2.9 million independents and not loose his conservative base, then he will be successful in winning the Golden State of California.