(Bumped for visibility – promoted by SFBrianCL)

The most recent SurveyUSA poll in the 50th CD race isn’t good news for the Busby campaign. In a poll of 448 “likely voters,” 47% indicated that they would prefer Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray, while 45% indicated a preference for Democrat Francine Busby. Here is the SurveyUSA summary:

In a special election in California‘s 50th Congressional District today, 6/2/06, 96 hours till polls open, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby are locked in a fierce firefight that could go either way, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 448 Likely Voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 4 days until the 6/6/06 Special Election, Republican Bilbray gets 47%, Democrat Busby gets 45%. Bilbray’s 2-point advantage is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Voter turnout will decide whether this critical House seat remains in Republican hands, or becomes a Democrat pick-up. Since an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 5/10/06, Bilbray is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%; Busby is unchanged. Bilbray wins 6:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 9:1 among Democrats. Among Independents, Busby had led by 35 points, now leads by 25 points. Bilbray’s support among Independents is up from 19% to 31% in past 3 weeks. SurveyUSA’s turnout model assumes 49% of Likely Voters are Republican, 34% of likely voters are Democrat, and 17% are Independent.

Can Busby Win?  Check the rest.

Bilbray’s 2% advantage is not statistically significant, but what is significant is the fact that Busby’s numbers remain the same in poll after poll. And, the poll numbers are consistent with her 44% actual vote count in the April special election. Busby’s performance in this heavily Republican district is nothing short of phenomenal, but as polling and voting seem to indicate, somewhere around 45% is the peak level of voter support she can enjoy.

For Busby to win on Tuesday, she needs a real reversal in turnout numbers from the traditional voting pattern. According to SurveyUSA, Busby’s chances depend upon getting the under 35 demographic out, while Bilbray needs to get the over 65 crowd to cast their ballots. Busby’s success depends on a consistently underperforming group of voters, while Bilbray’s depends on getting the most reliable group of voters to do their jobs. That does not bode well for Busby.

Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.

There is one final notation in this equation. Busby’s support has been very consistent from the special election through every poll and survey. Busby’s supporters voted in the special election and will, most likely vote on Tuesday, if they haven’t already sent in an absentee ballot. Bilbray on the other hand has to depend on a turnout of voters, who despite the contentious nature of the April special election, were too busy to cast a ballot then.

By SurveyUSA’s calculation, 20% of “today’s” Likely Voters did not vote in the 4/11/06 Primary. Among these “new” voters, Bilbray leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%.

It comes down to this for Busby, she needs a big turnout of younger voters, while seniors stay home. She needs the potential voters who sat out the special election to stay on the sidelines.

Ultimately, she needs every registered Republican and independent voter to pause before casting their vote and reflect upon the message that they will send to the nation if they ultimately choose Brian Bilbray, a career political hack turned lobbyist, who has never lived in the 50th CD and whose permanent residence is in the state of Virginia, to replace convicted Republican felon Randy “Duke” Cunningham.

Hey everybody,
Below is an article on the upcoming special election in CA-50
involving Democratic candidate Francine Busby, who is considered
strong on environmental and energy issues. Check it out. For more
info visit http://www.californiawomenvote.org/
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  Subject: Will the Earth Shatter on June 6th?

  Dear Maren,

  On June 6th, all eyes will be on California’s 50th Congressional
District.

  If Democrat Francine Busby wins the California special election on
June 6th, her victory would send a shockwave through the political
establishment. If Francine even comes close to winning in this solid
Republican district, no Republican will be able to feel “safe” for
the
next six months. Just listen to how the Associated Press described
it…

“Randy ‘Duke’ Cunningham’s former congressional district is a classic
safe seat, custom-designed to generate Republican wins. But with
Cunningham jailed in a mushrooming political scandal, the San
Diego-area seat is now one the GOP cannot afford to lose.” – AP,
5/14/06

New polls show this California special election to be neck and neck
with only two weeks left. With Dick Cheney in San Diego raking in
millions for Francine’s opponent, we still have an uphill battle in
this race. But we are not walking away from the fight. Not when we
are
fighting for change in Washington – not when we’re fighting to win.

  No Regrets: Help make sure we can give Francine Busby and
challengers
like her everything they need to fight back against the Bush/Cheney
cash machine. Give $25, $50 or more today.

  The DCCC has already spent more than one million dollars supporting
Francine against incredible odds, and it is working. We have aired
television and radio ads in Busby’s district for weeks; exposing her
Republican opponent’s disgraceful and ongoing career in the revolving
door between Republican lobbyists and Congress.

  In a top-tier media market like San Diego, one week of 30-second
television ads can cost as much as $400,000. If every person on our
list gave us $25, we would be able to keep up with Republican
spending
in this and other targeted districts across the country.

  No Regrets: Help make sure we can give Francine Busby and
challengers
like her everything they need to fight back against the Bush/Cheney
cash machine. Give $25, $50 or more today.

  The Republicans underestimated Francine, and they underestimated how
hard the DCCC would battle for her. Democrats will not roll over this
year, and Republicans are learning that the hard way right now. We’ve
helped Francine bring this race within striking distance and we need
to make sure we are ready for the dirty, desperate tactics the
Republicans are planning.

  Will you make a contribution today so we can afford to keep up the
fight in this and other races across the country?

  In an important sense, Francine’s inspirational campaign, a model
for
clean campaigns everywhere, has already won. Our Republican
counterpart, the NRCC, has blown a staggering $3 million on a race
they earlier bragged about having in the bag. They haven’t spent a
dime in this district for more than a decade – and now they are
eating
up resources they were counting on saving to use in November.

  Everyone at the DCCC is working day and night to make sure we’re
positioned to keep going blow for blow with the NRCC, Dick Cheney,
and
Karl Rove. But we cannot win without your support.

  Will you join the DCCC, and prove to the Republicans their reign is
coming to an end?

  No Regrets: Help make sure we can give Francine Busby and
challengers
like her everything they need to fight back against the Bush/Cheney
cash machine. Give $25, $50 or more today.

  A new era is beginning. Thanks in advance for helping make it
happen.

  Sincerely,

  Karin Johanson
  Executive Director, DCCC

  Forward our message to your friends and family.