Tag Archives: Katie Merrill

CA-10: Garamendi Poised For Victory, Only Woods Has Momentum

As John Garamendi touts in a diary here, the most recent SurveyUSA poll shows the Lt. Governor with a comfortable lead in the CA-10 primary set for Tuesday.  I am surprised that another candidate hasn’t talked it up as well, however, because the only candidate showing movement from the previous SurveyUSA poll is Anthony Woods.

In fact, this new poll, from 8/26-8/27, has Garamendi at 25%, Sen. Mark DeSaulnier at 16%, Asm. Joan Buchanan at 12% and Anthony Woods at 9%, with 5% undecided.  The last poll, from 8/10-8/11 was Garamendi 26%, DeSaulnier 15%, Buchanan 12% and Woods 5%.  I don’t think there are enough undecided voters to push Woods much further, but he’s running the only race drawing undecided voters, if the polls can be believed.

Among those who have already voted, the numbers are similar: Garamendi 27%, DeSaulnier 18%, Buchanan 13% and Woods 10%.

Certainly, Garamendi looks very strong for victory, and there aren’t likely to be enough voters Tuesday to favor a late riser, but Anthony Woods is running the only race moving from no built-in support to a credible challenge.  As for the relative flatness of the two state legislators, I’d say the choice by Sen. DeSaulnier to decide on a monomaniac focus on Garamendi’s residency issue, which simply has not moved voters in numerous other instances, instead of giving voters a reason to support him, would offer some answer.  Buchanan has run a self-funded campaign focused mainly on finding female support, but not necessarily a larger message.  In an environment with three safe or fairly lackluster campaigns, the expected form is holding.  Only Woods appears to be taking in new support, but his uphill battle was perhaps too high to climb.

No Hillary Clinton Inevitability

Over at CMJ, Katie Merrill lists her betting lines on the 2008 Democratic Presidential field. Setting aside the fact her lines add up to a total probability of 196% (meaning over time she should expect to pay out $2 for every $1 bet), she says:

Her opportunity: Sen. Clinton has just begun her campaign. Her web announcement was virtually flawless, and reintroduced her as a softer, more approachable candidate.

First off, Clinton has not just begun her campaign. The same night she announced the opening skit on Saturday Night Live was about how Hillary expected everyone to know she had been running since she was five.

Maybe the next line was a joke (web announcement = virtually flawless…hehe). But Clinton’s web announcement was a great example of the problems facing Hillary Clinton’s campaign in both strategy and execution.

I don’t know why Merrill writes about online politics, by her admission and example she doesn’t get it. So let me look at a couple of Clinton’s internet problems during the first week and why they are revealing the problems facing her “inevitability” campaign.

Online Ad Buy Disaster – When Hillary Clinton announced, her campaign made a very interesting Blog Ad buy (including this site). Instead of playing it smart by just buying the Advertise Liberally network, the campaign chose some liberal blogs (but not others) and instead spent money on some of the most expensive conservative sites. At first the Clinton campaign defended the buy with Phil Singer telling the Hotline, “We’re on some conservative sites because we’re not ceding any territory.” But within 48 hours the Clinton camp had flipped and began paying the conservitive blogs to not run the ad.

Not only did this anger key online voices on a tactical level, but the strategy of trying to appeal to the furthest right fringe is something that is routinely mocked online. In short, the episode illustrates a disturbing pattern of Clinton seeking in vain approval from the far right in a way that pisses off the left, followed by a reversal that in the end means everyone is unhappy.

Disconnect with Netroots – The next problem is that the Clinton Team tried to sell the idea that they had support online. Katie Merrill wasn’t the only sucker, the ultra-conservative Wall Street Journal also took the bait hook, line, and sinker. Not surprisingly, this whopper was debunked with not one, but two brutal front pages posts on Daily Kos. In short, the Clinton campaign was very publicly busted for cherry picking quotes to try and create a false reality where what they were seeking made sense. This disconnect is being tag-teamed on progressive talk radio as the blogs discuss what was said and the radio hosts read what was written online.

The Me Campaign vs. Progressive Movement – The other major fracture line that is developing online is the way that Clinton is running the ultimate vanity campaign. She isn’t trying to help the Democratic Party by the way she runs, in fact most people agree that if she is the nominee down-ticket Democrats across most of the country will be screwed. If you want to see how her announcement solidified this conception, look no further than how she is collecting money. Instead of following the smart candidates and using ActBlue (the backbone of distributed online fundraising), Clinton is instead using a closed, in house system which will not allow her supporters to support other Democrats down the road. In fact, in the first week Clinton has not inspired a single netroots donation:

Taking together, her anything-but flawless web announcement is creating the narrative that she is a selfish candidate who will do anything and say anything to advance her own ambition.

Ellen Tauscher Weekly, V1.02

If last week was defined by Katie Merrill catapulting a primary campaign against Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, this was the week that Tauscher tried in vain to distance herself from Joe Lieberman.

The following is how the week developed…

ellen tauscherSunday, December 17, 2006 – Sunday morning began where late Saturday night had left off. Before dawn, Crooks and Liars posted with five links to the continuing fallout from Representative Tauscher’s federal staff scrubbing her official government website of “The Caress” picture.

Rain Storm said the picture was, “definitely worth a thousand words” while pointing out, “In case anyone hasn’t been paying attention, the 2008 election cycle has already begun.” A short time later, skippy the bush kangaroo said, “if you enjoyed the lamont run against lieberman, pull up a chair, grab some popcorn and feast your eyes on california district 10, where ellen tascher, aside from being terribly out of touch with her constituents, made the unfortunate gaffe of knocking blogtopia (and she didn’t even acknowledge that yes! we coined that phrase!).”

That afternoon, a front-page post on Calitics looked at Tauscher’s internet blunders and concluded, “the larger problem is that her campaign should lack the ability to hire a netroots consultant who knows better. Working for Tauscher would be a career killer for a blogosphere coordinator and while the money might be good, it would be likely to cost other clients”. A post at Left in SF agreed, “Hiring an internet consultant for the very purpose of insulating the candidate from the internet is a pretty good way to end someone’s career. You’d have to be awfully cynical about politics and pretty contemptuous of the netroots to take that job.”

Monday, December 18, 2006 – Headlining CA-10 as, “Just One Ned Lamont Away From Being The Next CT SEN”, the Hotline Blogometer reported, “Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D-CA) vote for the Iraq war, her perceived coziness with K Street and Pres. Bush, have already made her the netroots number one target for ’08’s primary season.”

ellen tauscher joe liebermanThe week’s bombshell came Monday afternoon at Fire Dog Lake. You see, not only did Tauscher’s congressional office scrub photos of her with George Bush, but two pics of Ellen Tauscher with Joe Lieberman were also scrubbed. FDL noted, “The days when you could hire the idiot nephew to run the netroots component of your campaign are long gone.  It should be very interesting to see who might be willing to stand in the line of fire currently being aimed at Tauscher”.

Not surprisingly, getting caught scrubbing Joementum pics was the fastest route to permanently brand Tausher as getting Liebermanned in 2008. A FDL reader set up a new home for the pics and the story hit the front page of Calitics with quotes from Tauscher on why Lieberman was rejected by primary voters during the 2004 presidential campaign. And then the story rocketed to the front page of Daily Kos, “for those who want to know the full case against Tauscher, it will be laid out over the coming year in full.” Ruck Pad suggested anyone thinking of doing netroots outreach for Tauscher, “would be well advised to think twice” and declared the fiasco, “a textbook example on how not to head off a netroots fueled primary.”

Tuesday, December 19, 2006 – The National Journal Blogometer starting things off with, “The samecircles that got such mileage out of naming Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (I-CT) SOTU embrace of Pres. Bush “the kiss” have now labeled the pre-Iraq-war picture of Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA) sitting with Bush’s hand on her lap “the caress.””

Josh Richman won the prize for the first reporter to ask for a comment from the Congresswoman, but he failed to pin down who in Tauscher’s office did the scrubbing or whether the Representative sanctioned the cover-up.

Calitics covered “The Caress” and posted two videos from Tauscher’s town hall meeting with Rossmoor Democrats.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006 – The Berkeley Bubble started the day off with a post headlined, “Ellen Tauscher: The Caress, the Iraq Mess, Forgetting her District’s Address?” and a short time later it was read by a house.gov I.P. address. The House Race Hotline reported, “Emboldened by their role in the Dem sweep, liberal bloggers are now targeting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA 10), a Bay Area centrist, pro-business Dem in the mold of Joe Lieberman. Her crime? Bloggers perceive her as too cozy with Pres. Bush and big business. And as chair of the New Democratic Coalition, she’s been a proponent of free-trade agreements to the ire of the populist crowd.”

A front-page post at MyDD said, “Calitics is doing good work tracking Ellen Tauscher (including video).  She’s a real problem for Democrats, and should face a serious challenge.” A Calitics diary looked back at the type of candidate who has run against Tauscher in the tenth since redistricting.

Later that day, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Spun Cycle Blog offered a hyperlink-free post that was widely mocked and Carla Marinucci was quickly refuted at Ruck Pad.

Thursday, December 21, 2006 – A Calitics diary looked at Tauscher’s endorsement page from 2006 and notes that neither Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi nor Senator Barbara Boxer made the list.

A MyDD diary (that remained recommended for more than 48 hours) looked back of the major, public feud between Pelosi and Tauscher, “In the end, Tauscher’s two blunders ended up with Burton creating a new 10th District that would remove any fear of Tauscher losing in a general, but one that was specifically designed to allow her to lose in a primary if she kept undermining Pelosi. Tauscher wasn’t redistricted out of a seat, but was given a clear shape up or ship out choice.”

D-Day disputed the Tauscher/Lieberman link, “there’s NOBODY like Joementum when it comes to arrogance, false victimhood, dishonesty, and condescension.”

Friday, December 22, 2006 – The internet tubes were quiet on the last weekday before Christmas, but the 18 year-old high school student we mentioned last week posted his second diary on Calitics and the Rescue Rangers bumped the Pelosi/Tauscher Feud to the front-page of Daily Kos.

Saturday, December 23, 2006 – On Festivus Day, there was but one airing of grievances. A post at Calitics using the Way Back Machine to see Tauscher’s thoughts on her nomination speech for Joe Lieberman.

There should be much, much more next week in the Ellen Tauscher Weekly.

Continuing Fallout from Ellen Tauscher Internet Blunders

Ellen TauscherCounterproductive Katie Merrill seems to have been outdone by Ellen Tauscher’s congressional staff, whose website scrubbing has traveled wide and far through the internet tubes.

It started here, jumped to Fire Dog Lake and on to the SFist. The cover-up then made the leap to the front-page of Daily Kos and Crooks and Liars.

While it is quite clear that Tauscher’s current team only knows how to be counterproductive online, the larger problem is that her campaign should lack the ability to hire a netroots consultant who knows better. Working for Tauscher would be a career killer for a blogosphere coordinator and while the money might be good, it would be likely to cost other clients (a Democratic candidate would be a fool to waste money on an internet firm facing the wrath of the progressive blogosphere for selling out in this marquee race).

Not only has the fallout from this week’s missteps catapulted a primary campaign, but in all likelihood it prevented Ellen Tauscher from hiring anyone more productive than Katie Merrill.

UPDATE This is not what Tauscher wants to be reading in the Hotline on a Monday morning:

Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D-CA) vote for the Iraq war, her perceived coziness with K Street and Pres. Bush, have already made her netroots target number one for ’08’s primary season.

UPDATE: Sasha at Left in SF:

The very cluelessness, though, that makes a staffer go through the Congresswoman’s web site and scrub any pictures of her with Bush or Lieberman, thinking it’ll help, will make a fool out of any internet consultant who tries to step in. Hiring an internet consultant for the very purpose of insulating the candidate from the internet is a pretty good way to end someone’s career. You’d have to be awfully cynical about politics and pretty contemptuous of the netroots to take that job. Some people might want “window dressing” on their resume, but it’s not going to help Tausher convince anyone, and it’s going to make whoever takes the job a reputation as a cynical hack.

A cynical hack who works for the DLC. Ouch.

Counterproductive Katie

Katie Merrill

If Katie Merrill had the goal of preventing a primary campaign against Ellen Tauscher, it might not have been the best strategy to provoke the publisher of the most widely read political blog in the world into declaring, “So in CA-10, we will have a candidate, and there will be a primary.”

But as Jane Hamsher noted, Tauscher has greater problems than netroots. Sure, California bloggers are going to cover this race closely (Calitics is averaging more than a post a day on Ellen Tauscher in December of all months and Markos lives in the east bay). And sure, if things get interesting the national blogs will have the ability to get the race nationwide attention. But all of that will be focused towards understanding and supporting what is actually going on in California’s 10th congressional district.

Rototilling the Grassroots

From a grassroots perspective, the DLC fad of the 1990s destroyed the Democratic Party. The reliance on corporate big money all but cut rank and file supporters out of the process.

The new people-powered grassroots wave was a direct reaction to people like Gray Davis who triangulated against the base to be funded by big corporations.

Ellen Tauscher was part of this fad, but her continued contempt for the grassroots is so out of style that it makes it clear she is out of touch.

Since Tauscher bought her seat by spending $1.7 million, she has grown increasingly dependent upon PAC contributions while failing to develop support infrastructure in district. In her first re-election, almost 60% of her funding came from individuals, but her most recent report shows the ration flipping to where she now relies upon (mostly business) PACs for more than 60% of her warchest.

Now here is where the blogs come in and why Katie Merrill’s move was such a political disaster for Congresswoman Tauscher. What the blog infrastructure allows is not just volunteers and tons of money, but the ability for local resentment of Tauscher’s arrogance to have a nationwide voice.

After reading the front page post on Daily Kos, an 18 year old spoke up in the comments. He then learned how easy it was for him to refine his point, set up an account here, and post his thoughts as a diary. This morning, that diary was picked up by Fire Dog Lake and broadcast nationwide.

There is a structure to promote and reward ideas about the race, which is compounded in Tauscher’s case by the unique geography where bay area writers have six different BART stops they can choose from in the 10th district.

In the successful primary campaign against Joe Lieberman in Connecticut, the blogosphere amplified the reporting of Paul Bass and Colin McEnroe turning them into nationwide stars. Do you think this dynamic has escaped Tim Redmond? If a bay area race becomes ground zero in the battle for the future of the Democratic Party, CA-10 could be more thoroughly covered than most people can imagine.

The tools are readily available for grassroots activists to share stories of personal experiences involving Ellen Tauscher. I’ve heard lots of stories that I’m sure others would appreciate hearing and I know there are far more out there. So start an account and tell your stories — people are waiting to listen.

——–

Some of the comments thanks to Counterproductive Katie’s whine:

Kos, “It’s not surprising that this writer, Ellen Tauscher campaign manager Katie Merrill, would try to head off what will be a vicious fight for this seat in a primary. Unlike her apparent hero Joe Lieberman, Tauscher won’t get a “do-over” if she loses.”

Blue in Colorado, “How stupid can this woman be? A campaign manager-political operative needlessly and untruthfully insulting a several million strong group in her own party.”

zot23, ” I don’t even know who Tauscher was 5 mins ago, but now I support a primary challenge against her.  This whiney-ass boo-hoo letter makes me think she’s afraid of a populist net-roots primary challenge for a reason.”

Emetbloom, “I can tell you that there is significant antipathy towards Tauscher in both the El Cerrito and the Lamorinda Democratic Clubs.  I can also tell you that a lot of folks in CoCo County are upset because Tauscher belittles people who have challenged her vote on the war, has actively supported a Republican over active Dems for Community College Board, and in general is scornful towards people who don’t agree with her.  Also, her support of Filson didn’t exactly win her any supporters among Dems in her district.”

deaniac83, “Ellen Tauscher did her darnest to push Jerry McNerney – now the victorious Congressman from California’s 11th CD (defeating Richard Pombo) out in the Democratic primary.  You know why?  Because her longtime donor Steve Filson was running.  Tauscher put her nose in where it didn’t belong (I know this because but I can’t reveal the exact happenings or the source) to try to force Jerry out, and she was not nice about it.  We had to trounce DLC and Tauscher favorite Filson in the primaries 52-25% and then go on to beat Pombo.”

DavidW, “She was dragged kicking and screaming to drop her support for the Iraq War, and to start standng up against Bush. I’m in her district and I attended the district “town hall” meetings when she spoke about the war. Though she wasn’t an active proponent of the war, she didn’t represent her district when she voted for it, and it took her forever before she backed away from her support (via votes) for the war”

hartford for lamont, “by invoking Lieberman, a guy who lost the Connecticut Dem vote, all that Katie Merrill is doing here is showing how ignorant she is about what being a good Democrat is all about.”

machopicasso, “According to Tauscher’s campaign manager, it was a “misguided effort” to challenge an incumbent who was willing to leave the Democratic party in order to retain his Senate seat, campain with Republicans, and draw substantial support from the White House. That’s a totally different ballgame. Quite frankly, I’m surprised Merrill wants to place Tauscher and Lieberman in the same category. The latter already lost his primary; maybe Tauscher isn’t all that committed to the party, herself.”

electricgrendel, “She picked this fight.  It was her insufferable and useless “business friendly” Democratic model that helped greatly in getting the Democratic message diluted to the point of uselessness.  Not only that, but if I am not mistaken it was Ellen Tauscher who went out boasting about how much power she’d gotten because so many of the newly elected Dems were “conservative”. As for the press flak’s whine that we should be doing X, Y and Z so long as none of that involves rooting out conservative/business-friendly Democrats who make it impossible for us to deliver on a populist message, the only thing I have to say is that there are a whole lot of us.  There are a lot of fingers on a whole lot of keyboards and there are a whole lot of small wallets out there ready to open.  Don’t worry about us trying make sure that the freshman get elected and that we secure the White House in 08.”

tmo, “Lots of Dems in the district don’t like her and don’t consider her to be on their side. The general wisdom in the district is that she’s out of touch with her constituents and is not interested in being in touch; she knows what’s best and the voters should really just stay quiet.”

Giodude, “As I recall, she got really upset when the legislature unveiled the new maps. She was upset her moderate voting record would be a liability in her safe democratic seat.”

Neutron, “The chickens are coming home to roost for Lobbyistloving Tauscher.”

brittain33, “And here we have “business-friendly” Ellen Tauscher, representing a district substantially more liberal than her. No wonder she didn’t want this outcome. It reduces her ability to be a power player in the middle, who also happens to be exceptionally valuable to lobbyists. If she plays her moderation as a point of principle and not a way to get money from lobbyists and nicknames from George W. Bush, she’ll do well. If she sells out, by all means, primary her ass.”

RevJoe, “And Tauscher should be very, very afraid. She has been out of touch with her constituents for quite some time. She is definitely out of touch with her party.”

Faber, “This county is home to a large number of technical professionals;  I’m one of them.  Times aren’t as bad as they were in that business, but they’re not what they were in 2000. Ellen Tauscher has been in bed with ITAA since the get-go, and has sold out this constituency every chance she got. It isn’t a matter of ideological litmus tests or “values” issues.  Tauscher has simply done a rotten job of representing the issues of her constituents.  I will be working actively on a primary challenge for 2008.”

Big Tent Democrat, “The Netroots does not demand ideological purity. The Netroots demands the Democrats fight for Democrats, and that ideological disputes be resolved within our Big Tent. Tauscher’s meeting with Bush undercut our Dem leadership. That was Bush’s goal and Tauscher played along, just as Joe Lieberman always did. But it is more fun to believe there is an ideological test in the Netroots. Pure malarkey in the best tradition of Lieberman.”

AustinSF, “Congresswoman Tauscher serves as National Vice-Chair of the Democratic Leadership Council, an organization that is widely regarded as the intellectual center of the Democratic Party. DLC > them’s fightin words around these Dkos parts.”

mackellanpatrick, “I live in Ellen Tauscher’s district, and I agree that a primary challenge would be good for the district, good for the Democrats, good for democracy, and, frankly, good for Ellen Tauscher.  She seems to live in a gilded bubble and has gone unchallenged for too long, which isn’t good for anyone in leadership. The district has truly changed underneath her and become much more liberal.  And her campaign manager is just frankly an ass.  If you’re going to create enemies, at least be smart enough to be on the right side of history and don’t ramble on with “dying entrenched dinosaur overlord” kinds of things when new tools and communities arise with fresh voices.  A real choice for Democrats in the 10 would be a good thing, and maybe this time ALL democrats would rally around and support whoever the actual winner was, and not start their own party if they didn’t like the results.”

michael1104, “I seriously cannot wait to see her go! It is going to be soooo much fun challenging her and making her defend her right-wing corporatist stances against a progressive Democrat who would better represent the district.”

Pthy Cherub, “Nevertheless, she deserves a primary challenger that speaks to the values of the district and not her Liebermanesque view of how the world ought to be.  Maybe just maybe, she failed to notice her neighbor district brough done Pombo with a candidate that beat the establisment candidate in the district.  Some people have to learn lessons by actually getting in trouble rather than showing leadership and evolving when evidence says their political worldview is undergoing a dynamic shift.  She wants to “learn” the hardway – didn’t Joementum start out by poo pooing the netroots too.”

Nemesis22, “If Tauscher wants to avoid a primary from the emboldened left of the party, having her campaign manager whine about the indignity of being challenged by the great unwashed & comparing her favorably to Joe Lieberman isn’t a good start.”

And finally, a letter:

Dear Congresswoman Tauscher:

Today I read your campaign manager disrespecting the netroots Democrats, whining about attacks on pseudo-centrists Lieberman, Harman, and now apparently you.  "D-Alamo?"  Please.

You want to pick a fight with the netroots?  Fine.  It's on.

You've just turned another netroot constituent into a political enemy. 

See you in two years

Way to go Katie!

UPDATE: Counterproductive Katie responds:

On the contrary, my post far from backfired. In fact, the critical responses to my post on CMR and on different blogs prove my point.

No, you proved our point, catapulted a primary, and in the process an 18 year old high school kid proved he has more game than you when it comes to online communications.

A Response to Katie Merrill on Tauscher

  • upon blogswarm’s recomendation I have x-posted this from Ruck Pad.
  • Katie Merrill, Tauscher’s former campaign manager has penned an utterly predictable post on CMR about the recent rumblings in the blogosphere about her former employer.  It starts out with the typical smear on blogosphere fueled primaries and then goes on to talk about what a great Democrat Tauscher is, just look at all of these wonderful scorecards…yada yada.  While I am glad she has joined the conversation, here is my response.  This is from the beginning of her post:

    Only a month has passed since the Dems took back the House and Senate, and the divisive efforts of the netroots to rid the party of elected officials they don’t agree with has geared up in full force. Instead of doing what most good Democrats should be doing right now, which is working on getting our Freshman members of Congress re-elected in 2008, increasing our majorities in the House and Senate, and electing a Democratic President, the netroots are targeting sitting Democrats for defeat. That’s right. Instead of focusing on beating Republicans, these vocal Democratic activists are focusing on beating Democrats.

    Last year, their misguided efforts were primarily concentrated on now re-elected Sen. Joe Lieberman, although they also targeted various “moderate” (bad word for the netroots) members of Congress in their primaries, such as Congresswoman Jane Harman and Congressman Adam Schiff. Their newest target: Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo.

    1. The Lieberman primary was about his constant undercutting of his fellow Democrats.  The war played a central role in the battle, but it was just one example of Lieberman’s failings.  The primarying of Joe Lieberman arguably changed the whole narrative on the Iraq war when it came to the 2006 general elections.  No longer were Democrats afraid to stand up and speak out against the “stay the course” strategy.  It was critical to the Democrat’s broad-based victories.
    2. While the primary of Harman failed, it brought about a tremendous change in her behavior.  Just check out Todd’s post for more.  If Tauscher is interested in such a change, we would welcome her renewed engagement with her district.
    3. The netroots does not decide to issue a primary challenge based on liberal scorecards.  We are a diverse crowd without an explicit litmus test.  Rather, the majority of these primaries were about party unity and the failure to adequately represent their constituents.  For another example when it comes to primaries, though not ones with incumbents, look at the people we supported in contested primary fights: Jim Webb, Jon Tester, Jerry McNerney.  Not exactly, a homogenous bunch.
    4. It isn’t about moderate Democrats.  It is about people who put the moderate above Democrat.  It is less about policy (though her co-sponsoring the bankruptcy bill was odious), and more about behavior.  I welcome Tauscher’s talk of uniting behind Pelosi, but I don’t trust her undercutting that unity by meeting with Bush.
    5. The district Tauscher was elected in 2000 is not the same one she represents today.  Tauscher does not have to act like a Democrat-lite. 

      January 2000

      Democratic: 41.20%
      Republican: 41.17%
      DTS: 11.96%

      October 2006

      Democratic: 45.01%
      Republican: 32.52%
      DTS: 18.32%

      (as Matt pointed out in the comments on Ruck Pad, the district started trending more blue even before the redistricting)

      Furthermore, this is not a Club for Growth style primary attack.  Tauscher is not vulnerable like Chaffee.  Replacing Tauscher with a different Democrat, even one that ideologically further to the left does not greatly risk losing the seat to the Republicans.

    6. There is not a fixed number of political resources.  There is no set limit of political funds and volunteer hours.  Primaries energize the grassroots, bringing more people into the political process.  Have people still not learned the lessons of Dean?
    7. The problem with Rubenomics was its attitude towards trade and the impact it had on jobs.  The wave of economic populists, the guys who have this crazy idea about balancing the budget and not encouraging all of our jobs to go to China are on the rise.  Go see Sirota for more and I highly recommend buying his book.  Go take a look at Sherrod Brown’s race for how liberal Congressmen can win with a populist message.
    8. The netroots won overwhelmingly in 2006.  After all, it was this crazy guy named Chris Bowers, who had this nutty idea to contest every seat.  We won the Lieberman primary, got Tester and Webb elected.  We even had a comparable success rate to the DCCC, when it comes to the House.  We brought millions of dollars into the races and made hundreds of thousands of phone calls and door knocks.

      We are not a bunch of angry neophites with too much time on our hands.  The issue of Tauscher and a potential primary cannot be just a netroots phenomenon.  If there is a successful challenge to Tauscher it will because her constituents used the Democratic process to elect someone else.  The netroots discussion of Tauscher would be completely academic, if there was not already grassroots discontent within the district.

    So, Ms. Merrill, thank you for starting a dialogue.  May I suggest that you get back in touch with your former employer and encourage her to start rebuilding her relationships with her constituents.  Perhaps she would like to directly engage the netroots.  If we lay off the kabuki dancing and focus on beating the Republicans we will be a stronger party and nation.

    Katie Merrill on the Netroots

    Katie Merrill, August 26, 2006:

    Shhh. Don’t tell anyone. I’m going to let you in on a little secret as part of our getting-to-know-you process in the blogosphere. Ok, here it is. I am a political Luddite… a technology rebel… a wireless outlier. That’s right. You heard me. I am declaring myself, at least for the purposes of this piece, anti-technology. I am not completely anti-technology of course. I am, after all, writing this entry on my computer. For the launch of a new blog, no less. It’s just that I think that the whole notion that the Internet and wireless technology are changing the way we win elections is… well, a bunch of hooey. Incendiary remarks, I know. And bygones up front to my friends and colleagues in the mobile media, net roots, viral marketing, online activism world. But here’s the thing, I just don’t think any of those things actually win campaigns. At least not yet. And not in California.

    Katie Merrill, today:

    So, to the netroots, I say this: It’s time to get constructive guys. Roll up your sleeves and help our party leadership govern. And lay off the moderate Dems. They actually share your values. We as Democrats have a tremendous amount of work to do in the next 23 months. It’s time for you to focus on beating Republicans, not Democrats.

    In just three and a half months, she went from admitting she didn’t have a clue about how much we don’t matter to trying to tell the netroots that we need to get “constructive” and listen to her when it comes to focus?

    California Approaches 300 Deaths in Iraq

    Ellen Tauscher George BushA grim milestone approaches as California currently stands at 299 deaths in Iraq.

    This picture is dated from the summer of 2002, during the run-up to the war, just a few months before Representative Ellen Tauscher voted with George Bush on Iraq. Just days before the vote, Gwen Ifill interviewed Ellen Tauscher during the debate over the resolution. Representative Tauscher defended the resolution and the deal she cut for her support:

    And I am happy to say that have we moved this resolution very far away from where he where it was originally, which was almost a blank check and where we effectively gave the president a rubber stamp — where Congress has really inserted itself – and I think that’s in the best interest of the American people.

    That’s right, the deal Tauscher cut was for congress to act as a rubber stamp for the Administration. By doing this Tauscher failed during the most important issue of our time:

    Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), chairwoman of the moderate New Democrat Network, faulted the administration on its representation of intelligence, but refused to blame the White House entirely.

    “It’s clear now that they cherry-picked intelligence, amplified some things, played down dissent. [But] we all got it wrong,” she said.

    That’s just not true, not all of us did get it wrong. The problem is that Tauscher marginalized and ignored the voices who have since been proven correct.

    Today, Atrios recalled the absurdity during the run-up to the war:

    What was so frustrating at the time was not simply that a bunch of otherwise intelligent people seemed to have come to the horribly wrong conclusion that invading Iraq was a good idea. What was more frustrating is that there was a collective blindness to the dishonest and destructive way the war was sold, that it seemed not to bother these people that the multiple and shifting dishonest rationalizations for war suggested that there was something deeply wrong with the whole endeavor. It was frustrating that people who supported the war were happy to climb on board not just with the war but with the truly awful people who were the architects of both the war and the propaganda war which, among other things, involved tarring war opponents as brutal-dictator lovers. It was frustrating that they signed up for the whole goddamn enchilada.

    Frequently it’s been pointed out that they shouldn’t have trusted these people to “do it right.” But more than that it should have been obvious that they shouldn’t have trusted these people to “do the right thing.” They made clear during that time that they were, in fact, very bad people.

    I think that is just one of many examples of people in the reality based community fearing what happens when Ellen Tauscher cuts deals with these people. That is why people were so concerned about her meeting with Bush. Reports of the meeting had Karl Rove taking notes on the overwhelming success of Bush kissing up to her.

    In an article covering her war vote in February of 2003, Ellen Tauscher shrugged off the criticism by saying, “I sleep fine at night.”

    After the 300th Californian makes the ultimate sacrifice, will she still sleep fine at night?