(Good news from San Diego… – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I’ve been keen on Francine Busby for a while now.  After meeting her while down in San Diego, I’ve been quite optimistic about her chances to take CA-50, The Duke-Stir’s old Seat.  Well now, there are numbers to back up that growing suspicioun of mine. From DownWithTyranny via dKos:

DWT has come into possession of some brand new polling from the 50th CD– brand new and very exciting. The research was based on interviews with 401 likely April special election voters in December, 2005. The survey shows that voters in the district are ready for a change and are much more receptive to a Democratic message of change than to any Republican message of more of the same. Busby holds an advantage over all opponents tested in both a single-trial heat match-up as well as head-to-head match-ups. Busby has a shot to take the whole ballgame in the special (primary) election in April!

Despite a GOP voter registration advantage in the district, a majority of voters surveyed disapproved of Bush’s job performance– with a plurality of voters STRONGLY disapproving. Even among Republican voters a significant number disapprove of Bush’s job performance, while nearly all Democrats and two-thirds of independents disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president. This translates to Busby leading each of the Republican candidates. She is also better known than all the Republicans other than former Republican congressman Brian Bilbray.

A majority of voters (53%) say that things in the country are pretty seriously off on the wrong track, with just over one-third (37%) suggesting things in the country are on the right track. Many voters will be looking for change to get things back on track.

Once considered a strongly Republican district, the 50th has swerved away from the party of Bush, DeLay, Cunningham, Abramoff and Frist. Only 35% of the voters indicate they will probably or definitely vote for the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress. Moreover, voters are seeking checks and balances in Congress, with 43% saying they want a candidate who would provide a balance to Bush’s agenda, while only 34% prefer a candidate who will consistently support the Bush agenda.

You can give money to Busby via the Calitics ActBlue page.  More…

While it’s being talked about as a national bellwhether, I think we also have to consider the statewide ramifications.  CA-50 leans pretty strongly towards the GOP.  They have quite a strong registration advantage, as they do in much of Orange and SD counties.  While the governator has not really been scandal-ridden like Congressional GOP, he has suffered similarly moribund approval ratings.  The taint of the GOP in general will tend to run off towards all Republicans, even ones here at home. 

Ahnold deals on star power, and that has lost its shine.  He, more than ever, needs the support of his conservative GOP base, almost all independents, and to pick off some Dems.  I think a Busby win would indicate just how the people of at least one district feel about the GOP right now.