(I think this is a little closer to what’s really going on right now. (Cross-posted from The Courage Campaign) – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Rasmussen Reports has a new poll of the governor's race in its subscription-only section.

Arnold Schwarzenegger    49%

Phil Angelides                    40%

Other                                     5%

Undecided                           7%

With a margin of error of 4.5%, the poll suggests Phil's best case is a tie. In addition, Arnold has a favorability rating of 57% and an unfavorable of 42%.  Phil is at 44% favorable and 53% unfavorable.  Remarkably only 3% are unsure of how they feel about Phil. While Phil down by 9% feels about right to me at this point with the expectation that the final result will be tighter as Democrats return to Phil, the favorability ratings are surprising. This basically tells me that as people have gotten to know Phil, they've decided they don't like him. What's not to like? It's clearly tainted by the pro-Arnold media narrative that Phil has just not been able to penetrate. 

Keep in mind that this poll was taken 10/10-10/11 prior to Phil's great new Always On Your Side ad, which pummelled the airwaves this weekend. By the same token, however, it was also prior to The LA Times's unfortunate endorsement of Arnold on Sunday.

Hat tip to Bill Bradley and Julia Rosen.

The Wall Street Journal has a poll on battleground races that has both Angelides and Westly leading:

Angelides v. Schwarzenegger:
Angelides:  45.5%
Schwarzenegger:  40.7%

Westly v. Schwazenegger:
Westly:  47.1%
Schwazenegger:  37.8%

Also see the Rasmussen poll, which has the race has a toss-up.

I know Angelides has gotten a lot of momentum recently from endorsements and such, but Westly’s poll numbers are generally better against Ahnold.  I’m a bit shy about using that as a voting rationale in the primary after the Kerry ’04 debacle, but it’s there and may affect the results of the primary.