Voters go to the polls tomorrow to elect the successor to Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald. The story line coming out of the election seems to be labor v. tribes. They are both spending more money than the candidates have raised themselves.
State Senator Jenny Oropeza, as dday detailed on Saturday, has been the beneficiary of over $270,000 in independent spending from the Morongo Band of Mission Indians. The tribe has dropped mailers, door hangers, newspaper ads and called voters in a push to repay Oropeza for voting for the massive gaming expansion. That vote was one factor for the LA County Labor Federation’s support of Assemblywoman Laura Richardson. They are spending their money on member to member communication, urging the members of their local affiliated unions to vote for Richardson. No specific total in terms of spending, but it is not an insignificant sum.
I would put my money on the Fed being much more effective with their communication rather than the blanketing of the district done by the tribe. Turnout is going to be pretty small, less than 15% and those hard core voters are not easily swayed by mailers and door hangers. This campaign really is all about identifying likely voters and making sure they get to the polls. Who ever has a better turnout model and plan will win.
The amounts that the campaigns have raised are relatively modest. Oropeza reported $219,000 on June 6, while Richardson listed $105,000 in contributions. The tribes efforts have surpassed both of them easily.
If you are in the district make sure you vote and drag all of your friends and family around with you. The winner will likely be in office for a few decades.