Everyone has been going on and on about the SD-03 race here, and I’m about as far removed from a vested interest as one could be while still living in California, but it’s been good for horserace fun- it’s definitely the hot race in the halls here, with mountains of lit from all three sides.  It actually reminds me of all the presidential buzz last year, and seems to be overshadowing the Clinton/Obama business so far (at least among the unscientific sample of folks I’m talking to). Joe Nation and Mark Leno have been working the crowds in their way, and Migden, well…she’s being herself as well, which from what I hear is at least pretty entertaining.  On the flip is the banner she’s been running around the CC with, which turned a few heads for using the official seal of the State Senate while campaigning.  That’s a little sketchy, but then what isn’t these days?

[Update by Julia] Sweet Melissa brings us the scene from the Women’s Caucus and it is jaw dropping.

We walked in and who was at the podium in front of hundreds of people? Carole Migden! And Mark Leno was standing in the back of the room! I looked around and saw lots of women holding Leno signs and gay men holding Migden signs. And the supporters were heckling each other! Hilarious!

I later learned that this was a meeting of the California Democratic Party Women’s Caucus. Migden launched into her speech, which fell pretty flat until she got to the part about how “women should vote for women” and pointed to a group of women in the corner of the room (some of whom were, um…not-petite) who were holding Leno signs and said:

   “I mean, are those women or heavy guys?”

I shit you not.

Allow me to repeat that:

   “I mean, are those women or heavy guys?”

The room was silent for a second while we all thought the same thing: “Did she just effing say that?” Then the place erupted with boos and curses that did not stop.

Sweet Melissa sums it all up by saying:

To recap: I wasn’t here two hours and I saw Migden get booed off the stage at the Women’s Caucus. This is going to be good.

Today at 4:30 there will be a potential endorsement vote for Midgen.  The rules are different for incumbents then those running for an open seat.  She only needs 50%+1 rather than 60%.

[Update by Lucas] Word is that Migden was hammering the same “women need to stick together” line at the Progressive Caucus last night.  Always good when we can have an honest debate about the issues…

Even more reasons that the CDP must not endorse Carole Migden.

Randy Shaw wrote this for today’s Beyond Chron.

In late February, a David Binder poll found State Senator Carole Migden badly trailing Mark Leno and Joe Nation in the race for Senate District 3. Since that time, Migden agreed to pay $350,000 in fines for state campaign law violations, filed a federal lawsuit against the FPPC challenging campaign finance limits as unconstitutional, and was sued by the FPPC for $9 million in an action that charged, among other violations, that Migden “failed to report a number of large transactions entirely, while reporting other large transactions which simply never occurred.” In political trouble before the FPPC’s actions, Migden now has no chance to win re-election. She appears to be remaining in the race solely to defeat Leno, a strategy that would put a moderate Democrat from Marin in a seat that would otherwise be held by a San Francisco progressive.

In my view, Carole Migden lost her chance for re-election when tapes were released of 911 calls from terrified fellow drivers commenting on her reckless driving down Interstate 80.  Migden blamed health problems for her conduct and agreed to stop driving, but voters were unlikely to forgive her for the peril she caused those sharing the highway with her that day.

Migden and her backers insisted she could overcome the reckless driving charge, and a few months later was back behind the wheel. The State Senator also remained defiant after agreeing to pay $350,000 in campaign finance violations, insisting that voters “don’t care” about such violations.

Migden is likely correct that voters do not care about technical violations in campaign reporting, but her record as the politician who has been most fined for FPPC violations in California history is a different matter. Migden now faces a massive $9 million lawsuit for violations so egregious as to create the impression that the longtime politician has flouted campaign finance laws with impunity.

Republicans, not progressive Democrats, are those typically complaining about campaign finance restrictions. Yet it is Migden who will ask a federal court on April 1 to strike down as unconstitutional longstanding campaign finance regulations, all so that she can spend money she raised for her Assembly campaigns on the State Senate race.

This has been a bad week for the incumbent. On Monday night, Migden failed to win the sole endorsement of the San Francisco Labor Council, as it jointly endorsed both her and Leno.

The Council’s failure to solely endorse an incumbent Democrat shows her weakness as a candidate, and that this is becoming a Leno-Nation race. Leno has the stronger progressive record, and would be the clear favorite were he not losing some progressive votes to Migden.

If Migden cared about ensuring the Senate seat is occupied by a San Francisco progressive from the queer community, she would withdraw from the race. But word from those who know Migden is that she will keep campaigning in order to prevent Leno’s victory; she not only feels personally betrayed by Leno running against her, but believes that if he had not run, she would have coasted to re-election despite her reckless driving and campaign finance violations.

There is ample precedent of weakened incumbents dropping out of races to help ensure the election of a candidate of a similar ideological bent. Republican Congressmember John Doolittle of nearby Sacramento faced controversy over campaign law violations, and it looked for some time as if Democrat Charlie Brown would easily take the seat in November 2008.

But Doolittle put his ideology ahead of personal ambition and dropped out of the race. Conservative Tom McClintock has since declared his candidacy, and Republicans are now favored to keep the seat.

New Jersey Senator Robert Torricelli faced a situation similar to Migden, in that only a few months before the November 2002 election polls showed him losing to his Republican opponent. Torricelli dropped out of the race, and his Democratic replacement won the November election and continues to serve in the U.S. Senate.

Of course, Migden’s rivalry with Leno has a personal component lacking in the above two examples. Migden sees Leno as a Judas for running against her, while his backers would argue that she betrayed her former fundraiser when she backed Harry Britt against Leno in the 2002 Assembly race.

Migden’s personal animus toward Leno explains her willingness to play the spoiler role.

And if her spoiler strategy works and Nation wins,  it will be the district’s progressive constituents who will pay the price.

(I’ve written lots about SD-03, but Randy Shaw is quite knowledgeable about the race and has some interesting news about this poll. – promoted by Brian Leubitz)

My boss, Randy Shaw, wrote the following for today’s BeyondChron.

A poll taken last week by David Binder found State Senate District 3 a two-way contest between challengers Joe Nation and Mark Leno, with incumbent Carole Migden trailing badly. Binder, who is San Francisco’s leading pollster and has been busy surveying for Barack Obama, found that Nation led Leno 27-24% on the initial ask, with Migden trailing at 17%. When pro and con statements about the candidates were read, the Leno-Nation numbers reversed, with Migden remaining at 17%. Joe Alioto Veronese was at 7 and 10%, and nearly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided. The poll spells deep trouble for Migden, who is having fundraising problems and still faces possible legal action by the Fair Political Practices Commission for alleged campaign financing violations. The poll raises the question whether Migden should pull out of the race in order for the seat to remain in the hands of a San Francisco progressive from the queer community – an analysis recently advanced by one of the incumbent’s most prominent supporters.

Although David Binder performed the poll for the Leno campaign, his company has a long track record of being San Francisco’s most accurate pollster. His results are quite similar to those that Joe Nation used to justify his recent entry into the race, an action that confirmed Migden’s vulnerability.

The poll numbers are great news for Mark Leno.

First, he will have a significant fundraising edge over Nation, so has a greater capacity to win undecided votes.

Second, he is the least known candidate among the leading three, giving him a greater opportunity to broaden his base.

Third, the numbers have to increase pressure on Migden to leave the race to avoid playing the role of spoiler. As it now stands, Migden could potentially divert enough votes from Leno to hand a San Francisco Senate seat held by a member of the city’s queer community to a more conservative straight white man from Marin.

Ironically, Migden supporter Rafael Mandelman lent credence to the need for Migden to leave the race in his letter in the current Bay Area Reporter titled “Leno jeopardizes queer seat.” Relying on Joe Nation’s poll that found Migden leading Leno by 5%, Mandelman, who signed the letter as President of the Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club, accused Leno of putting “a queer seat in jeopardy.”

Mandelman concluded his letter by calling Leno’s action a “serious sin,” and urging him to “give the attacks a rest.”

While Mandelman does not expressly urge Leno to leave the race, the implication is clear. And it is a conclusion that many members of the LGBT community as well as San Francisco voters will draw about this race – only the analysis instead applies to the badly trailing Migden.

Here we have the incumbent in the race unable to secure either money or political support, and this is before all the district’s voters learn the details of her May 2007 reckless driving incident (you can link to the audio of the 911 calls made by fellow drivers here down Interstate 80, and before the FPPC files charges against her for collecting funds for one purpose and spending them for another.

The campaign violation occurred when Migden transferred $100,000 from “Friends of Carole Migden” (the campaign account for her first Senate bid) to her “Re-Elect Senator Carole Migden” account.  The funds in that account were illegally placed there by Migden from her previous Assembly campaign account.  Acknowledging the violation, Migden sought to remedy the situation by moving $120,000 back to the “Friends” account on November 5, 2007.  However, the act of transferring funds from an illegal source is a violation of the law – even if you later return the funds.

Anyone familiar with political trends knows that at this stage of the race, an incumbent with Migden’s poll numbers is in dire political straits. Incumbents do not pick up undecided voters with two other strong candidates in the field, and it seems that, like Rudy Giuliani in Florida, the more voters get to know Migden the less they support her.

Obviously, Migden is not going to leave this race in March. But if she remains far behind in April, those who care about San Francisco and the queer community keeping this Senate seat need to start speaking up. Leno is already trouncing Migden in San Francisco and, with her out of the race, he easily defeats Nation.

Well, I must say, the timing of this is a bit surprising.  Former Assembly member Joe Nation has decided to run for State Senate in the 3rd district. From Mr. Nation on his candidacy:

“It’s late to be getting in in some respects,” Nation said after his announcement in a patch of wetlands near the Petaluma Marina on Saturday. Migden and Leno have been campaigning for more than a year already, while Veronese began only slight later, he said.

But Nation said he was “thrilled” by poll results showing a dead heat between him, Migden and Leno if he entered the race, with lesser known Veronese trailing.

“I know it will be a sprint,” he said, but plans to take a leave from his consulting work, allowing more time to campaign. “I more or less have 16 hours a day, seven days a week to work, and I think I can get it done,” he said. (Santa Rosa Press-Democrat 2/9/08)

The polls he references are internals, of course, but I’d expect that to be fairly reasonable. Nation has decent, but not great, name ID in the district from his days in the Assembly and from his ill-fated run against progressive Democrat Lynn Woolsey. However, I would imagine that there are a lot of people who remember the guy well. He’s a pretty smart guy when it comes to policy, that has never been the question.

The question of how this affects the race are quite numerous. It substantially diminishes Joe Veronese’s chances, given that the son of Angela Alioto was trying quite hard to lure those North Bay constituents. Nation’s entrance into the race puts that much more incentive for SF to either rally around one candidate, or face the possibility of being represented in the Senate from outside of the County.

Either way, it is even more clear that SD-03 will be the most interesting legislative primary this year.

I don’t normally comment too much on the FalseReport. It’s just generally not worth my time to quibble with inanities. And my disagreeing with those folks would kind of be a little too expected. So, I generally focus on those who are supposed to be “balanced.”  But, I’ve been tempted by this little piece of so-called analysis on SD-03 by Yolo County Supe Matt Rexroad (hey, Yolo, WTF? Do you let just anybody become supervisor?):

In a one on one race with Migden and Leno — I like Leno’s chances.  He is every bit as liberal only he is much nicer.  That is not saying much.  Leno had done a great job of gathering up all of the anti-Migden forces until others started having the same idea.

“Another clinging on to glory days” Alioto jumped into the race.  He divides the anti-Migden forces once. Now Joe Nation has opened an account.  He is a former Assemblyman from Marin County that might make a play for the Marin County part of the district.  He would divide the anti-Migden forces again..and almost certainly hand her re-election.

The problem with this? Well, apparently Mr. Rexroad didn’t bother to talk to anybody who knows the district, knows the personalities involved, or  do any research whatsoever on this before he wrote this.  If he had, he would have seen a few statements like this from people who actually know the San Francisco-based district.  From Luke Thomas, a local photographer/journalist:

Conventional wisdom, however, suggests Nation, who lives in San Rafael, will likely draw votes away from incumbent Senator Carole Migden who is already facing stiff challenges from Assemblymember Mark Leno and San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto-Veronese. (FogCityJournal 11.28.07)

Or this analysis from one of the top pollsters in the City, probably the state, David Latterman of Fall Line Analytics :

David Latterman, president of Fall Line Analytics, a San Francisco-based polling company, said Nation’s potential entrance into the race “hurts Carole” Migden. That’s because while both Migden and Leno are well known in San Francisco, a Nation candidacy could take Marin votes away from Migden, which Leno has never represented, he said. (SacBee CapAlert 11.16.07)

Now, I’m not saying that Mr. Rexroad couldn’t be right, it’s just that he’s not even close to being right.  He frames this as a race between Senator Migden vs. Not-Senator-Migden.  And that’s just not the way this works. Assemblyman Leno and Fmr. Assemblyman Nation both have their own name IDs. Mr. Nation isn’t so popular up as he once was in the North Bay considering his primary challenge to Lynn Woolsey. (By the by, Rep. Woolsey doesn’t look like she’s set to let that incident go so quickly either.)

Oh, and apparently Mr. Rexroad also missed the latest self-injection of cash into Sen. Migden’s campaign. The funny thing is here that Mr. Rexroad actually seems to well, dislike Sen. Migden. Now, that’s probably a badge of honor for a progressive like the good Senator, but the article is an odd way of stating that distrust. Maybe next time Mr. Rexroad spills pixels, he’ll think of making sure that he has a solid grip on the facts.

In a very insightful look at the (expected) 2008 primary campaign with Assemblymember Mark Leno challenging incumbent Senator Carole Migden, Randy Shaw writes:

Migden’s inability to mount a serious challenge to Leno’s slate of delegates for the California Democratic Party convention reflects her disconnection from the city’s activist base. For a sitting Senator to field a slate, then abandon the slate, then deny she ever tried to run a slate, is not a good sign for her chances against Leno in the June 2008 primary.

There was a surreal feel to Leno owning the very same room where Migden once ran Democratic Party Central Committee meetings with an iron fist. But as Shaw notes, the upcoming primary race will be about far more than the traditional San Francisco fight over who is the most left.

More and more, I believe it is important to judge primary campaign candidates on three axis:

Left – Right
Grassroots – Top Down
Forward – Back

While there may not be much difference between Leno and Migden on the first axis, I think only looking at the traditional stances on issues is a very superficial way to view the race (but I’m sure we’ll see many articles on how they are both gay and similar on the issues).

On the second axis, Shaw is correct in noting the disconnect between Migden and the SF activists. While a few years ago many would have assumed that the fallout from the Leno/Britt primary would have lingered, Leno has so impressed San Francisco’s activists that many of Britt’s biggest supporters have nothing but great things to say about Leno. Even more, Leno has significant approval from members in both the Milk and Alice clubs — a feat deserving a peace prize.

But the third axis may have even more contrast. Shaw sums this up nicely:

Why have people encouraged Leno to run against a fellow Democrat for the State Senate? The late Miquel Contreras, whose leadership of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor starting in the mid-1990’s soon transformed the city into a pro-labor stronghold, offered the best explanation in a similar context.

Contreras drew some criticism when he backed Democratic State Senator Hilda Solis against an incumbent Democratic Congressperson Marty Martinez, who had an 80% pro-labor voting record. Contreras said labor would no longer be content to support politicians who simply voted right, instead “we want warriors for working people.”

Mark Leno has proved a warrior for progressive causes in the Assembly, and many San Franciscans want the city to have a fighter for its interests in the State Senate. In contrast, Carole Migden is so disinterested in fighting for her constituents that she abandoned the powerful role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee so she could devote her full energies to Steve Westly’s campaign for the Democratic nomination of Governor.

That’s not a misprint. San Francisco’s chief representative in the State Senate cared more about advancing the political career of the multi-millionaire Westly than she did the economic interests of her own constituents.

This is what Matt Stoller calls the bar fight primary and this axis is the one that has become far more important during the Bush era. Phoning it in isn’t good enough. Activists don’t want leaders to pay their dues, they want them to aggressively lead.

Looking at the full picture of the race, it is clear that Leno is viable (if not heading into the race with an advantage). Throw in Joe Nation minimizing the North Bay vote and I think Leno is the front-runner.

KQED’s Forum, in an ongoing series on primary coverage, is focusing on the non-major Democrats today.  In its first hour, Susan Rasky will be discussing the Democratic primary for governor.  In the second hour, the program will focus on the CA-06 primary.  Joe Nation and Lynn Woolsey are duking it out in a race I covered yesterday. 

For the audio, check out the podcast feed or the audio archive.

(updated – promoted by SFBrianCL)

UPDATE: Nathaniel (who did predictions for Constitutional Offices, the Assembly, and the Senate on Calitics) predicted a bunch of other races on dKos today.  In response to his prediction that Woolsey would trounce Nation, I did a little thinking.  In my comment, I said this:

It’s really too bad b/c I think Nation kicked her ass in the debate (it’s streamed online.  You can get more info on the race at Calitics.  He just seems a lot smarter than her.  Her basic argument is that I’m liberal as him, why lose the seniority?  Well, I think sometimes liberals should consider who will be most effective in addition to liberal values.  Look, Lynn Woolsey has been a good representative, but what are her big efforts that she’s given us?  Yes, I understand that she’s in the minority.  But at some point you need to look to build bridges to get things done.  I just think Joe Nation would be better at the job than she is.

And you said his career is over.  Really?  I think he’s a great legislator. I hope he can make a comeback from this race.  It was definitely bold (some would say presumptious) to try to run against Woolsey, but I don’t think it should kill his career.

So, I guess I support Nation, for similar reasons as the SF Chronicle. See the flip for more…

Joe Nation, a termed-out Assemblyman from Marin County, is challenging Lynn Woolsey, the 7-term incumbent, for CA-06.  The seat represents all of Marin County and most of Sonoma County.  However, unlike the Harman-Winograd race, Nation is not running to the left of Woolsey.  It is clear from her website, and her record, that Lynn Woolsey is a solid progressive:

The conversation reminded me why I love my job so much. It went beyond the need to fix potholes in Sonoma and Marin, to what we can do to heal the heart and soul of our nation. We agreed on many things: 
  * the moral imperative of bringing our troops home from Iraq;
  * stopping a president who believes he is above the law;
  * improving schools for all American children;
  * and making health care the birth- right of every American, not a privilege reserved just for the wealthy.(Woolsey For Congress)

Her issues page is chock full of examples of her progressive street cred.  But that’s not something Nation is arguing.  Sure, he’s pretty darn progressive himself, but I don’t think you could win an election by running to the left of Lynn Woolsey, even in Marin.  With the exception of castigating Woolsey for voting for No Child Left Behind and environmental issues, Nation hasn’t really said a whole lot that would disagree with Woolsey’s positions.  You can find a lot more about his position on his issues page.  He is running on the notion that Woolsey just isn’t that effective in Congress.  And it is somewhat true.  She is a solid progressive voice, but a voice without much gusto behind it.

But, normally such a challenge wouldn’t really be considered remarkable.  The incumbent would easily take the race, even if he or she wasn’t that effective.  However, Nation has gotten some traction.  It’s still an uphill battle for him, but picking up the endorsement of the San Francisco Chronicle will help him.

Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma, has served 14 years in the House of Representatives. She is a solidly reliable vote on the left — whether the issue is military policy or health care — but no one would regard her as one of the more dynamic or effective members of Congress from the Bay Area.
***
On the baseline issues — the Iraq war, abortion rights, environment — there is little distinction between Nation and Woolsey. But the differences in their grasps of public policy, and ability to formulate and articulate fresh ideas, is profound. … The comparison favors Nation, 49, who emerged from a crowd of 80 as one of the more thoughtful and effective members of the Assembly.
***
Woolsey, 68, has always counted on her “progressive” credentials and constituent work to keep her immune from a primary challenge. In this race, however, her stumbles on the home front have become focal points against her. Her contradictory statements about whether she lobbied for a Port Sonoma ferry terminal — a project loathed by environmentalists — suggest a deficiency in either her credibility or her attention span. Nation has also taken her to task for an act of Congress that cleared the way for a casino in Sonoma County. (SF Chron 5/24/06)

There are several great resources available for this race.  SmartVoter (a resource of the League of Women Voters) has a collection of some of these resources.  The two candidates debated.  I must say that Woolsey looked a bit peeved to be there.  She began her opening statement by saying “I love my job.”  It sounds a little bit self-serving to me.  That being said, it did appear that Nation had an excellent grasp on the issues.  She is a competent Congresswoman, but I can see why the Chronicle would think why would be more effective.

This could be an interesting race next Tuesday.