Tag Archives: Fog City Journal

FlashReport on SD-03: Completely Clueless

I don’t normally comment too much on the FalseReport. It’s just generally not worth my time to quibble with inanities. And my disagreeing with those folks would kind of be a little too expected. So, I generally focus on those who are supposed to be “balanced.”  But, I’ve been tempted by this little piece of so-called analysis on SD-03 by Yolo County Supe Matt Rexroad (hey, Yolo, WTF? Do you let just anybody become supervisor?):

In a one on one race with Migden and Leno — I like Leno’s chances.  He is every bit as liberal only he is much nicer.  That is not saying much.  Leno had done a great job of gathering up all of the anti-Migden forces until others started having the same idea.

“Another clinging on to glory days” Alioto jumped into the race.  He divides the anti-Migden forces once. Now Joe Nation has opened an account.  He is a former Assemblyman from Marin County that might make a play for the Marin County part of the district.  He would divide the anti-Migden forces again..and almost certainly hand her re-election.

The problem with this? Well, apparently Mr. Rexroad didn’t bother to talk to anybody who knows the district, knows the personalities involved, or  do any research whatsoever on this before he wrote this.  If he had, he would have seen a few statements like this from people who actually know the San Francisco-based district.  From Luke Thomas, a local photographer/journalist:

Conventional wisdom, however, suggests Nation, who lives in San Rafael, will likely draw votes away from incumbent Senator Carole Migden who is already facing stiff challenges from Assemblymember Mark Leno and San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto-Veronese. (FogCityJournal 11.28.07)

Or this analysis from one of the top pollsters in the City, probably the state, David Latterman of Fall Line Analytics :

David Latterman, president of Fall Line Analytics, a San Francisco-based polling company, said Nation’s potential entrance into the race “hurts Carole” Migden. That’s because while both Migden and Leno are well known in San Francisco, a Nation candidacy could take Marin votes away from Migden, which Leno has never represented, he said. (SacBee CapAlert 11.16.07)

Now, I’m not saying that Mr. Rexroad couldn’t be right, it’s just that he’s not even close to being right.  He frames this as a race between Senator Migden vs. Not-Senator-Migden.  And that’s just not the way this works. Assemblyman Leno and Fmr. Assemblyman Nation both have their own name IDs. Mr. Nation isn’t so popular up as he once was in the North Bay considering his primary challenge to Lynn Woolsey. (By the by, Rep. Woolsey doesn’t look like she’s set to let that incident go so quickly either.)

Oh, and apparently Mr. Rexroad also missed the latest self-injection of cash into Sen. Migden’s campaign. The funny thing is here that Mr. Rexroad actually seems to well, dislike Sen. Migden. Now, that’s probably a badge of honor for a progressive like the good Senator, but the article is an odd way of stating that distrust. Maybe next time Mr. Rexroad spills pixels, he’ll think of making sure that he has a solid grip on the facts.