In light of the projected $14 billion budget shortfall, Senate leader Don Perata said late yesterday “‘it would be imprudent and impolitic to support an expansion of health care’ before addressing the state’s budget deficit and its impact on existing programs.”

Meanwhile, Fabian Núñez is “so confident that we will be successful in reaching agreement that I have called for the Assembly to meet on Monday, December 17 in order to take up and pass AB 1X.”  So where are we actually heading on this?

Governor Schwarzenegger is calling for 10% spending cuts across the board in response to the budget shortfall that everyone knew was coming.  And as Dave points out, this means everyone who can’t afford to live without government gets screwed while the rich continue on their merry way.  It also means that next year’s budget fight will likely turn this year into the good ole days of budget wrangling.  And if Perata is serious about not passing anything as long as there’s a shortfall, then we ain’t passing anything for a while cause the shortfall isn’t going anywhere.

But before we even get to that, we find out whether all the extended sessions, coalition-shredding wars over an acceptable level of health-care (I’m looking at you Shum/Maviglio), time, money and both literal and cyber ink may end up coming to nothing because Don Perata can’t see spending on an important mandate when the political leadership in Sacramento can’t figure out how to balance a budget.

This is ultimately going to encapsulate most of the Calitics greatest hits from the past year; starting with health care, this runs through privatization, water usage, high speed rail and transportation, prison reform, Núñez pecadillos, labor relations, term limits, clean money, taxes, and the 2/3 rule.  Because it all runs back to the ability of people to get elected and pass a budget.

Most of all, it’s likely to reinforce the absurd lack of strong, public political leadership in this state.  There are no advocates.  Nobody has tried to convince me to sacrifice.  Nobody has tried to convince me of the inherent wisdom in a program that I might not otherwise think was a good idea.  The art of the possible is starting to discover that, as it turns out, not very much is possible with a $14 billion shortfall and no bold attempts at change.

Perata’s statement closed by saying “The real issue now is the deficit and how this squares with everything else that we are going to do.”  Everything is back up for debate.  Now that we’re staring at the very real possibility of getting less than we started with, it might not be such a bad time for a return to the fundamental principles of budgeting and state spending.  I’m not sure it could end up much worse.