Don Perata has no ability to end the recall, mind you, but in his mind he’s done it.

First off, let’s say that I’m happy to have been on the right side of Prop. 93, the outcome of which will send Don Perata into the sunset.  What a laughable bit of incompetence this is.

Let’s start with the fact that he doesn’t get to say what’s on the ballot and what’s not.  The authoritarian style of “what I say goes” is the only thing that would’ve doomed this otherwise perfectly justifiable recall of a legislator who forgot his district and went along with an obstructionist GOP that is harming the state to a severe degree.  A real Senate leader would have broadened the race into a referendum on state Republicans and would have done very well.  You either do something like this full-speed or you never start it in the first place.  This half-step just furthers the narrative of Democratic weakness.

Combined with the stab in the back on SD-15, where Perata demanded that nobody contest Abel Maldonado in another winnable seat, the Senate Pro Tem has assured that there is no way we reach a 2/3 majority in 2008.  It’s still possible by 2010, but this is a wave election, a realignment year and we’re waving the white flag in two prime Senate races.  That’s just stupid politics.  I appreciate the need to speed along the budget; the state is broke.  But this recall is over by June 3, and it’s not like everything’s going to be wrapped up by then.  And the stupidest part is that Perata RECOGNIZES that the threat of the recall was helping provide leverage for the Republicans.

In a statement, Perata credited the recall for recent legislation that passed out of the Senate:

“The vote we couldn’t get last year to close the tax loophole for yacht owners — we got that vote,” he said. “The vote we couldn’t get to help homeowners facing foreclosure – we got that vote. You put everyone here on notice — and I don’t think people are going to forget that anytime soon.”

No, you now let everyone off the hook because you’ve proven you can be bullied by a Republican hissy fit and tut-tuts from the conventional wisdom crowd in the media.  No Republican will EVER take a Democratic threat seriously in the near future, crippling the leadership of Darrell Steinberg.  And all the leverage on getting legislation passed in the Senate just ended.

Great friggin’ job, Don.  If you want to just go ahead and quit now and let any stray cat from Berkeley finish out your term, that’d be just fine with me.

…the thought has crossed my mind that Perata is just taking his name and aura off the recall because it’d be easier to pass without him, but if any organization associated with him donated a dime there’d be an even bigger hissy fit cry of “hypocrite,” so his dropping the recall really signals a drop of any financial infusion, and I’m not seeing how Simon Salinas or the Dump Denham group will raise the necessary funds (especially considering that Denham is not restricted by any fundraising limits in a recall).

Yesterday I noted that even Dan Walters was coming around on budget solutions that addressed the revenue problem.  Today there’s news that Republicans in the State Senate crossed party lines to pass a mortgage relief bill.

SB 1137 would give notice to property residents that the foreclosure process has begun, provide tenants additional time to move from a foreclosed property, and mandate maintenance of foreclosed properties to diminish the impact on the value of neighboring homes.

A previous version of this bill, SB 926, failed on the Senate floor in January when it fell one vote short of passage and faced opposition from the financial services industry. Since then, Senator Perata has addressed industry concerns and produced a more workable bill that has broad support and no known opposition.

One of those Senator who voted for the bill?  Senator Scared as a Chicken in a Fox Cage Jeff Denham.  He actually spoke on the Senate floor in favor of the bill.  That’s no accident: two of the worst-hit counties in terms of foreclosures are in his district (Stanislaus and Merced).  Cox, Maldonado and Wyland joined the majority as well.  The final vote was 28-10.

This is a compromise bill, to be sure (only loans from January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2007 are included), but would provide more transparency and the ability for homeowners to get help before foreclosure, as well as increased notification for renters whose property heads into foreclosure, which is an increasing problem.

What’s notable here is the Republican support, which suggests that they’re starting to feel pressure on issues like the mortgage crisis from their constituents.  The old saw in California politics is that these Republicans are so gerrymandered into their seats that they can’t be moved by public outcry.  I’m not sure that’s true anymore, and it’s something to be recognized as we head into the budget fight.

As for Denham, I think he’s got a bigger problem with his racist campaign manager, but clearly he’s trying to radically backtrack his Senate history and come off as a nice moderate.  Since this week is the deadline for bills to move from the Senate to the Assembly, we’re going to see him tested on a lot of votes in the coming days.

The recall war is continuing to deliver drama, with Senator Denham dropping a radio ad a few days ago which implicitly suggests that he shouldn’t even be eligible for recall.  As Capitol Alert recounts, “The ad…says: ‘When a public official is guilty of malfeasance or criminal conduct in office, the California Constitution provides for the right to recall.'”

But as Capitol alert and Don Perata’s spokesman both note, that’s just one reason for someone to be recalled.  CapAlert was good enough to track down the applicable portion of the law, which says: “Recall of a state officer is initiated by delivering to the Secretary of State a petition alleging reason for recall. Sufficiency of reason is not reviewable.”

I don’t recall any conduct by Gray Davis that was either criminal or contrary to law, but I guess that could be in the eye of the beholder. You may recall (ha!) that the petitions circulated back in 2003 said in part:

[Governor Davis’s actions were a] “gross mismanagement of California Finances by overspending taxpayers’ money, threatening public safety by cutting funds to local governments, failing to account for the exorbitant cost of the energy, and failing in general to deal with the state’s major problems until they get to the crisis stage.”

Now, Senator Denham may not personally or at least exclusively be responsible for “gross mismanagement” of anything, but last I checked, our current budget crisis (which is based on the budget that Denham’s obstinacy helped create) is cutting funds to local governments (which threatens local education if not safety), has failed to account for the exorbitant cost of energy, and rather obviously failed in general to deal with the state’s major problems before they got to the crisis stage.  So basically, the one example of a major and modern recall election fits exactly with the premise driving the Denham recall attempt.  But rather than actually defend himself, Denham has decided to to whine about being picked on.

It might be that there’s a reasonable case for Denham to make on this, but he sure isn’t making it with this “why is everybody always picking on me?” silliness.

Via Randy Bayne:

Simón Salinas has pulled papers to run in the Denham recall. He has until 5 p.m. tomorrow to turn in papers and signatures.

One Republican has also pulled papers, but there is a question about residency which may disqualify John Nevill, a Monterey County health care compliance officer.

I’m sure there will be a few stragglers on the ballot, but if Salinas is it that would significantly increase the chances of the recall, since Denham is not on that part of the ballot.  It’s an expansive district and no candidate has a power base throughout it, but between Salinas’ stronghold in the Monterey County area, and the new report that Stanislaus County has turned blue, with a 5,000-vote registration shift between 2006 and today, there is obviously a lot of movement here, and if Denham continues to whine about the process than his record, his days are numbered.

[UPDATE by Robert] Hank Shaw is reporting that Anna Caballero’s brief flirtation with a run has ended, clearing the field for Salinas.

Today’s Salinas Californian reports Anna Caballero has said she “may” enter the race to replace Jeff Denham should he be recalled:

Assemblywoman Anna Caballero, D-Salinas, said Thursday that she may jump into the race to replace Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Merced, if he is recalled by voters.

Caballero had indicated she wouldn’t enter the race, but said she’s reconsidering because of calls from Democratic activists in the San Joaquin Valley, part of the sprawling 12th Senate District.

“These are cold calls, from people that I don’t know,” she said.

It would be quite interesting to know who is making these calls. Caballero might well be a strong candidate – before taking her seat in the Assembly she was the Mayor of Salinas, and has a good organizing presence in the Salinas Valley. Of course, most of the district is over in the San Joaquin Valley – hence these calls.

Caballero’s profile is also VERY similar to the other potential candidate, former Assemblyman Simón Salinas:

Caballero joins Monterey County Supervisor Simón Salinas as a possible candidate. Salinas again said Thursday that he is considering whether to enter the contest, which will go before voters at the time of the June 3 primary.

“Frankly, it comes down to (whether) we can get enough resources to get our message out,” Salinas said. “It is such a big geographical area.”

The filing deadline for candidates in the hurry-up election is 5 p.m. Saturday.

As Randy Bayne explained yesterday, Salinas was believed to already be planning a run at Denham’s seat in the 2010 election – which, if successful, would let him stay in the seat until 2018. But if he took Denham’s place through the recall, he’d have to step down in 2014. Caballero, on the other hand, is only in her first term in the Assembly, and could presumably return there in 2014 if she chose.

Again, the filing deadline is Saturday at 5pm, and I’ll bring you updates as I get them.

[UPDATE by Dave] I just want to add right at the top so he can see it that Denham flak Kevin Spillane is a worthless hack, and his little press release he wrote about me based on a recent blog post couldn’t be more distorted and wrong.  The media is buying in to his stupid hissy fit, apparently unarmed with any institutional memory that goes back to 2003, that any recall election against a Republican is an abuse of power.  Grow some cajones, Kevin, and defend your candidate instead of inventing a boogeyman in the most hypocritical way possible.  There will be a Democratic candidate, he’ll come from the Central Valley, and he’ll be a damn sight better than the unthinking automaton rubber stamp Jeff Denham turned out to be.  If you can’t defend your candidate you’ll lose.  Period.

Lots of news today on the Denham recall, including Randy Bayne’s pessimistic view over in the recent diaries list. And here is some more: two new ads backing the recall are going to begin airing locally, paid for by the CDP. The TV ad is called “Sleeping”:

The ad copy, courtesy of FDR at the California Progress Report:

We sent Jeff Denham to Sacramento.

So how did he wind up with jet lag?

He spent thousands on travel – while the Senate was in session.

Airline tickets. Trips to Vegas. And a Sedona spa.

When he does show up, he’s sleepwalking.

Denham held up the budget, hurting our schools

Denham said he wasn’t taking raises – then secretly raised his pay by 20 percent.

The Fresno Bee called it “not quite honest.”

Don’t you deserve better?

Vote yes on the recall

A radio ad will also be aired – the copy of it, also provided by FDR, is over the flip.

The radio ad is titled “Travel”:

WOMAN: The MGM grand? Sedona?

I thought we sent Jeff Denham to Sacramento.

MAN: Wait a minute. The MGM is in Vegas.

WOMAN: Well, Denham has been racking up the frequent flier miles.

MAN: To Vegas and Sedona?

WOMAN: uh hm — to the number one “Destination Spa.” www.enchantmentresort.com

MAN: Sounds like a free vacation.

WOMAN: More like a recipe for jetlag. When Denham finally makes it to Sacramento, he’s practically sleepwalking.

MAN: What do you mean?

WOMAN: He held up the budget, hurting our schools. And remember how he said he wouldn’t take pay raises?

MAN: Oh, you don’t mean —

WOMAN: You guessed it. Denham secretly raised his pay – three times – when he thought no one was looking. The Fresno Bee called it “not quite honest.”

MAN: Well that’s an understatement.

WOMAN: And that’s why I’m voting yes on the recall. After all, don’t we deserve better?

Sure, these ads are hard-hitting, but I’m also not sure they alone will do the trick of successfully recalling Denham. Seems to me the much more necessary task is to identify him with the crippling schools cuts that so many in his district are faced with. Making him look to be a dishonest, lazy politician is but a start to the much broader framing effort that needs to happen here.

by Randy Bayne

x-posted from California Notes

Poor planning may be what ultimately spells disaster for proponents of recalling Senator Jeff Denham. They were so gung-ho about collecting enough signatures to place the recall on the ballot, they seemingly forgot part two of the plan – a candidate to replace Denham if the recall was successful.

Of two seriously mentioned candidates, Merced County DA Larry Morse and Monterey County Supervisor Simón Salinas, only Salinas remains, and he has not committed. Morse has declined to be a candidate.

As I was discussing this with someone else, I realized that a significant problem this campaign had from the start was planning for the gathering of signatures while not planning steps if the recall actually qualified. It leaves me wondering if they really thought they would get enough signatures in the first place.

They should have understood that a recall is really two questions. First, should someone be recalled. Second, who replaces him or her. Proponents seem to have focused on the first without thinking much about the second. Now they are left scrambling to meet a Friday deadline to get a candidate.

Further complicating matters is term-limits. Since Denham has already served two years his recall replacement will only get the remainder of his terms, six years, at most. Sources tell me Salinas was going to challenge Denham in 2010 anyway. He would then be eligible for the full eight years, or until 2018. If he wins in the recall he can stay until 2014. Salinas, or any candidate, will need some kind of assurances into the future if they are expected grab the immediate six years rather than wait another two to get eight. Make sense?

Recall proponents have little time to find a candidate who would be willing to come in for the short term. It would have to be someone willing to just give Democrats an extra budget vote this summer, one that perhaps will be the difference. It will truly have to be someone who has little, if any, interest in remaining in politics, and possibly someone who is willing to just fill out the remain two years on Denham’s first term then step aside in favor of a party favorite.

Underlying the lack of planning on the part of recall enthusiasts, is the question of out-of-state signature gatherers involved in the petition collection. Hank Shaw notes:

What is highly amusing is that the Denham folks are asking local law enforcement to investigate the matter. Why is this amusing? Because the man who would be responsible for such an investigation would be none other than … Larry Morse, the Merced County District Attorney. Yes, the same Larry Morse who would have clearly been Denham’s most formidible opponent in the recall, had he chosen to pull the trigger. For the record, he didn’t.

There seems to be evidence a plenty to get signatures kicked, but that may not be needed. Poor planning and a lack of a candidate may be enough to doom the recall.

As noted yesterday in the Capitol Alert, Merced County DA Larry Morse has said he will not be a candidate to replace Denham in the June recall election. That would seem to leave Monterey County Supervisor and former member of the Assembly Simón Salinas as the most likely candidate, although he has not yet made any official statements to that effect.

Meanwhile Denham’s aggressive defense against the recall has shifted toward questioning the paid signature gatherers – charging that some were from out of state, in violation of CA law, and that most were not from SD-12 – another error. In an interesting maneuver, the Denham campaign went to the very same Larry Morse to ask for an investigation of these charges. Morse refused, but I wonder if that played a role in his decision to not run against Denham in the recall.

Hank Shaw of the Stockton Record explains more:

Regardless of whether Morse or someone else investigates the matter, it’s a little odd that the Dems would leave so many bread crumbs for the Denham folks. It appears that the majority of the petition-gatherers were not from Denham’s 12th District, as they needed to be. The Denham folks also note that other listed as paid signature-gatherers registered at non-existent addresses or hotels. Add this to the tapes of gatherers telling voters that they’re from Detroit or somesuch and it seems like there’s enough evidence to hang your hat on…

…now of course in California you cannot tape someone without their acceptance, so those tapes would be illegal, too.

Regardless of whether or not the charges have merit, this is a good strategy for Denham to delegitimize the recall in the minds of SD-12 voters.