Tag Archives: IRV

AB 1121 Asm. skinner is swing vote

Rob Dickinson is the Executive Vice President of Californians for Electoral Reform and has worked closely with Assembly Member Mike Davis on AB 1121.

Please call Asm. Skinner’s  office to support AB 1121

> Dear Judy,

>

> I appreciate your question regarding Assemblywoman

> Skinner’s response to Steven Hill’s message about AB

> 1121.

> It is accurate, in my opinion, to say that Assemblywoman

> Skinner is a swing vote for our bill in committee.  

>

> We need 9 votes in the Appropriations Committee to pass our

> bill out of committee, and we have 8 votes.  “There are two other members of the committee that are not yet supporting the bill, and they too could be considered swing votes”. Essentially,

> we are 1 vote short of the necessary 9 votes for passage,

> and if Assemblywoman Skinner votes in support of the bill,

> we pass out of committee.   That would have been true on

> Weds. of this last week, where her vote would have passed

> our bill out of committee, and is probably true for next

> Thursday when we will still need her vote.

>

> No votes have been officially recorded on the bill in

> Appropriations, but we still know how people were planning

> to vote.   We know both because the various offices tell

> us in advance how they plan to vote, but members also tell

> committee staff how they plan to vote. The members of the

> committee inform the committee staff in advance of how they

> plan to vote in order to give the Chair information

> necessary to decide how to proceed on each bill. For

> example, the committee has shorthands for many common votes,

> such as “A Roll Call” vote, which means all

> members – both Dems and Reeps – vote in support” and

> “B Roll Call” vote, which is a party-line split

> with all Dems supporting and all Reeps opposing.  So we

> knew who was with us and who was not.  

>

> The bottom line is that if Assemblywoman Skinner votes for

> the bill, it moves forward in the Assembly, and if she

> either abstains or votes no, then the bill never gets out of

> committee.  And so far she has not been willing to indicate

> a yes vote on AB 1121.

>

>

> Her lack of support is incredibly surprising to everyone

> involved with this legislation, as her district is so

> overwhelmingly in support of instant runoff voting —

> probably close to 70% in support (given that Berkeley and

> Oakland passed IRV with 69 percent and 72 percent of the

> vote respectively).  And that disconnect is even more

> surprising given how modest this bill is.   It is

> important to note that this is merely a pilot bill to allow

> only 10 general law cities or counties to have an option to

> use ranked voting.  The bill is completely optional and

> mandates nothing.  Any city or county that does so as part

> of this legislation would be required to provide a detailed

> report on the experience which would help inform future

> policy choices.  In other words, the bill was designed to

> re-assure any legislators that might have concerns. So, if

> Asm. Skinner does in fact have concerns, one would think

> that this legislation would offer an ideal way to get more

> information from a handful of jurisdictions using IRV to

> explore whether or not there is any merit to those

> concerns.

>

>

> It is also important to note that the legislation requires

> any jurisdictions that wish to use IRV as part of this pilot

> program to obtain approval of their voters.  So any

> jurisdiction that proceeds with IRV as part of this

> legislation will have the support of the majority of their

> voters, which is a very democratic model.

>

>

> Additionally, the bill is in the Appropriations

> Committee to consider its fiscal impact to the state.  The

> Appropriations analysis concludes that the bill incurs no

> cost to

> California.   That is the primary purpose for why the

> bill is in

> Appropriations — to consider its fiscal impact — since

> the policy

> committees have already considered whether or not they

> believe the

> policy to be sound and in the interest of the state.   It

> is important

> to remember that the Democrats on the policy committee —

> Assembly

> Elections and Redistricting Committee — voted unanimously

> in support

> of the bill in an earlier vote on April 21st.

>

>

> Given the modest nature of this legislation, it does make

> Asm.

> Skinner’s unwillingness to vote for it perplexing.

> And she is clearly

> out of step with her district on this issue.

>

>

>

> Regards,

>

> Rob Dickinson

June 6 Primary, Voter Intent Unknown

(There’s no reason we can’t do some sort of ranked voting. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

In the June 6 California primary election, 26 races finished without majority endorsement. There will be no runoff election. A winner has been chosen, but the true intent of the voters may never be known. Not having rankings or ratings ballots is hurting us, all the time, every election cycle, in many races. These failures are not rare.

Ten races in the June primary chose a winner with less than 40% of the vote. One of those ‘winners’ got less than 30%. These close elections cut across party lines and affect Republicans and Democrats roughly equally.

In cases where the top two are very close, or where 2nd and 3rd are very close, or simply when the first place ‘winner’ has a low enough percentage of the votes, the election could have easily gone another way. I think it’s reasonable to call into doubt whether the desires of the voters have accurately been recorded and whether they are getting good representation.

If the first place finisher didn’t get 50% of the votes cast, it would have been possible to beat them if the voters who had split between other choices unified on one challenger.By considering the difference in votes between the first and second place candidate and the number of votes for candidates who came in 3rd or below, it’s possible to calculate the probability that the 2nd place candidate could win if the remaining voted randomly for the first or second place candidate. I’m going with random voting because it makes the statistics work out well to use a normal distribution and I don’t know all of these races so it makes bulk analysis of them possible.

Below are 26 races which finished with less than 50% support for the winner:

Race Vote Percentages 1st place votes minus 2nd place votes Sum of votes for 3rd and below % of remaining votes 2nd place candidate would need to win Probability that 2nd place candidate can win
BOE District 4 – Republican 43.4 – 42.7 – 13.9 1040 22847 52.28% 48.18%
CA Asm District 77 – Republican 31.8 – 29.8 – 18.2 – 11.1 – 9.1 671 13272 52.53% 47.98%
CA Asm District 6 – Democratic 31.7 – 28.2 – 18.6 – 12.4 – 7.5 – 1.6 1922 21905 54.39% 46.50%
CA Asm District 38 – Democratic 33.3 – 28.9 – 23.9 – 13.9 818 7076 55.78% 45.40%
BOE District 3 – Republican 37.3 – 33.6 – 16.5 – 7.2 – 5.4 15986 129786 56.16% 45.10%
Controllor Republican 40.2 – 37.1 – 12.6 – 5.5 – 4.6 42987 313356 56.86% 44.54%
CA Asm District 65 – Republican 29.7 – 22.6 – 21.8 – 21.1 – 4.8 2105 14291 57.36% 44.14%
CA Asm District 41 – Democratic 35.0 – 26.8 – 20.3 – 14.8 – 3.1 2860 13254 60.79% 41.46%
CA Asm District 59 – Republican 32.5 – 22.9 – 17.5 – 16.5 – 10.6 3129 14483 60.80% 41.45%
Lt. Gov. Democratic 43.4 – 38.6 – 18.0 97028 362508 63.38% 39.45%
CA Asm District 32 – Republican 41.9 – 35.9 – 22.2 3089 11537 63.39% 39.44%
CA Sen District 10 – Democratic 39.2 – 31.0 – 29.8 5241 19337 63.55% 39.32%
US Rep District 12 – Republican 42.6 – 36.5 – 20.9 847 2985 64.19% 38.83%
CA Asm District 57 – Democratic 41.4 – 33.7 – 16.9 – 8.0 1561 5099 65.31% 37.97%
CA Asm District 16 – Democratic 42.8 – 35.4 – 12.4 – 9.4 4062 12057 66.84% 36.81%
CA Asm District 58 – Democratic 37.3 – 21.9 – 21.1 – 19.7 3502 9285 68.86% 35.30%
CA Asm District 74 – Republican 42.9 – 32.1 – 25.0 4175 9780 71.34% 33.47%
US Rep District 52 – Democratic 38.9 – 19.7 – 15.7 – 14.8 – 10.9 4867 10490 73.20% 32.13%
CA Asm District 67 – Republican 44.9 – 34.5 – 20.6 3701 7391 75.04% 30.83%
Governor Democratic 47.9 – 43.4 – 2.7 – 1.7 – 1.3 – 1.2 – 1.0 – 0.8 90898 180697 75.15% 30.75%
CA Asm District 44 – Democratic 42.8 – 26.2 – 23.6 – 7.4 4925 9217 76.72% 29.66%
US Rep District 26 – Democratic 47.0 – 37.8 – 15.2 2528 4172 80.30% 27.23%
US Rep District 4 – Democratic 46.5 – 33.1 – 20.4 6343 9674 82.78% 25.60%
CA Asm District 45 – Democratic 45.3 – 26.4 – 18.0 – 8.2 – 2.1 4380 6607 83.15% 25.37%
CA Asm District 56 – Democratic 46.1 – 29.2 – 24.7 3592 5267 84.10% 24.76%
CA Asm District 66 – Republican 48.0 – 19.8 – 19.7 – 12.5 6785 7790 93.55% 19.19%

This is just my way of saying again, change the election laws so that we can express ourselves on rankings or ratings ballots and we’ll get more representative elected officials and everyone will be happier.

———-

Sources:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/gov/00.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/ltg/00.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/ctl/00.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/all.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/boe/all.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/stsen/all.htm
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/stasm/all.htm