Field released their polling data on Props 93 (Brian’s Disclosure) and 94-97. PDF here. Supporters and Opponents of these propositions still have quite a bit of work to do before February 5, as voter awareness is still hovering around the 2/3 mark for both and undecideds around 20-25% even after poll education. Also, Field seems to have not polled Prop 92 again.
Let’s get to the details over the flip.
On Proposition 93, the vote is evenly split between yes (39%) and No (39%). Awareness of the initiative has increased to 65% from 25% in last month’s poll, after new ads (Yes ads here) and a recent surge in spending by Republican insurance commissioner and all-around Rich Uncle Pennybags Steve Poizner. Yet even with the higher awareness, undecideds are still hanging at 22%. Interestingly, 28% of Democrats are undecided, while only 16% of Republicans are undecided.
Democrats tend to break late in polling. And, wearing my Yes on 93 hat for a minute, that’s not a bad thing. With an impressive endorsement list, including the Sierra Club, the California Democratic Party, Equality California, and the SEIU state council, hopes are high that many of these Democratic voters will break Yes. Of course, the Governor’s endorsement, who is also strangely popular, could also help tilt some undecideds. Also, the endorsement of La Opinión (English here) should help considerably. With the bulk of Vote-by-mail ballots outstanding, likely due to the close presidential races, there are a lot of votes out there yet.
On Props 94-97, the Native American gambling casino slot machine initiatives, Yes slightly leads 42-37. Awareness is at 70%, likely due to the millions upon millions being poured into the ads by the four tribes who stand to make billions of dollars off these compacts.
The yes ads, which you can see in our own ad section (along with a no ad), continue to trumpet the billions of dollars coming to the state. (What they don’t trumpet as loudly is that these billions come over 20 years. Oh, and the state isn’t actually guaranteed that money.)
The yes side on the casino compacts has one other problem. The votes are confusing. If you want to overrule the legislature, you must vote NO. If you want to allow the casinos, you must vote YES. But either way, this is confusing. And when voters are confused, No is the traditional response. With less than two weeks until February 5, expect a whole flurry of activity from all participants.