I meant to post a little update about this earlier, but, well, it never happened.  I’ve updated the Calitics Poll HQ to include the recent batch of polls.  I’d also like to point out a great piece of software, NVu.  It’s an open-source competitor to Dreamweaver.  I recently got a Mac, and I thought I was going to have to trudge back to the ol’ PC to get the Poll HQ updated.  Well, I found NVu, and I’m a happy guy.  Yay open source!

Ok, so back to the polls.  Rasmussen, as I reported a few days ago, has Arnold up 48-42.  That’s the same margin as he held at the end of July.  So, at this point when Arnold has outspent Phil by vast margins, stable isn’t bad.

As for the bond measures, it seems they are veering towards the inexorable no vote.  As I’ve mentioned before, propositions tend to drift towards no as the election draws closer.  You heard it here first: at least one of these bonds will not pass.  I actually think 2-3 of them will fail.  I would also not be surprised if all of them failed.  People have begun getting scared about the $43 Billion pricetag on these bonds and how we are going to have to repay them eventually. 

Poll/Prop	1B: Transp.			1C: Housing			1D: Educ			1E: Disaster			84: Water
	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK	Yes	No	U/DK
PPIC 8/30/06	50	38	12	57	32	11	51	39	10	56	35	9	40	45	15
Field 7/28/06	54	27	19	33	42	25	48	37	15	47	33	20	49	31	20
Field 6/5/06	57	24	19	39	38	23	48	34	18	58	25	17	N/a	N/a	N/a
PPIC 5/06	62	32	6	60	37	3	74	22	4	62	34	4	N/a	N/a	N/a

Now that doesn’t mean that Tom McClintock (Arnold’s “running mate”) or his far-Right Republican allies will propose actual solutions to the questions posed by our infrastructure and general funding questions.  No, the GOP has gotten really good at saying no. No new taxes, No immigrants, No Spanish, No universal health care, no control on CO2.  No, no, no, no,no!  Well folks, you get what you pay for.  If you pay for a developing world infrastructure, that you will get.

Welcome to the Poll Headquarters.  We’ll be posting notable Polls and Endorsements here. The Governor related polls will be in the main, congress, down-ballot, and other polls will be in the extended.

California Governor Polls

Primary Polls: Angelides v Westly and Hypothetical Matchups

Field California Governor Polls

The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates of survey. The Field Poll is the gold standard of California political polls. I always trust the Field Poll when it’s in conflict with another. The margin of error for all voters is 3.8%. 4.5% for the Democrats only race.

Poll/Candidate	June 2 2006	April 14 2006	March 2 2006	November 3 2005	September 7 2005	June 29 2005	February 25 2005
	Angelides	versus	Westly
Westly	35	37	18	26	22	28	11
Angelides	34	26	26	37	32	37	15
Other	5	3	2				20
Don’t Know	26	34	54	37	46	35	54
	Angelides	versus	Schwarzenegger
Angelides	39	40	39	47	43	46	35
Schwarzenegger	46	44	39	41	40	42	52
Undecided	11	13	20	12	17	12	13
	Westly	versus	Schwarzenegger
Westly	42	43	41	46	42	44	33
Schwarzenegger	44	43	37	40	39	40	52
Undecided	11	11	21	14	19	16	15

Rasmussen California Governor Polls

The dates are the date of release to the public, not the dates of survey. The Rasmussen poll is a computer polling operation. Its results are a little more questionable and can sometimes be skewed towards the political right. Also, Rasmussen did head to heads for Angelides and Westly, but only releases that data to paying subscribers.

Poll/Candidate	May 24 2006	April 17 2006	March 23 2006	Feb. 13 2006	Jan. 24 2006	Dec. 15 2005
Angelides	versus	Schwarzenegger
Angelides	45	36	45	40	39	44
Schwarzenegger	45	49	44	41	41	40
Undecided/other	10	15	11	19	20	16
MoE	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5
Westly	versus	Schwarzenegger
Westly	46	40	45	34	40	46
Schwarzenegger	44	48	44	39	39	39
Undecided/other	10	12	11	27	21	15
MoE	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5	±4.5

Other random polls

The LA Times poll and the PPIC poll also have polls on down ballot races. I didn’t summarize them here, but click the links for the full PDFs. Please let me know if you know of any more.

Poll/Candidate	Datamar 6/5/06	S-USA 6/2/06	LA Times 5/26/06	S-USA 5/25/06	PPIC May ’06	S-USA 5/8/06	PPIC March ’06	LA-Times 4/28/06
Angelides	Versus	Westly
Angelides	42.9	41	37	44	35	41	22	20
Westly	41.3	37	34	32	32	31	23	33
Other	n/a	1	1	17	n/a	17		2
Undecided	15.8	28	7	33	11	55	45
MoE	±3.94	±5	±4.8	±5	±4.9	±5	±5
Angelides	versus	Schwarzenegger
Angelides	34.3			38		29	43
Schwarzenegger	53.5			38		41	43
Other							1
Undecided	12.2			24		30	13
MoE	±2.46			±2		±2	±5
Westly	versus	Schwarzenegger
Westly	50.7			36		39	48
Schwarzenegger	38.0			36		31	39
Other							1
Undecided	11.3			28		30	12
MoE	±2.46			±2		±2	±2

S-USA Schwarzenegger Approval

The actual Survey USA site has the ability to do demographic breakdowns.

DATE	05/10/05	06/13/05	07/11/05	08/15/05	09/16/05	09/19/05	10/03/05	10/17/05	11/14/05	12/12/05	01/16/06	02/13/06	03/13/06	04/10/06	05/15/06	06/12/06
MoE	± 4%	± 4%	± 4%	± 4%	± 4%	± 3.9%	± 2.9%	± 3.9%	± 3.9%	± 3.9%	± 4%	± 3.9%	± 4%	± 4%	± 4%	± 4%
	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL	ALL
Approve	40%	35%	36%	37%	36%	32%	34%	33%	35%	34%	34%	32%	36%	35%	36%	39%
Disapprove	56%	60%	61%	56%	59%	65%	59%	65%	63%	63%	62%	65%	61%	61%	61%	58%
Not Sure	4%	5%	3%	6%	5%	3%	8%	2%	2%	4%	4%	3%	3%	4%	4%	3%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

CA-50 Special election Polls (Bilbray, Busby)

I collected as many as I could find. The April SUSA is before the first election so it includes several other candidates. If you know of any more, please pass them along to me. The value of the polls varies wildly, so take them all with a grain of salt.

Poll/Candidate	SurveyUSA 6/02/06	LRP 5/18/06	SurveyUSA 5/10/06	Moore Info 5/4/06	SurveyUSA 4/10/06
Bilbray	47	40	45	37	13
Busby	45	47	45	43	47
Other	9	1	9	7	38
Undecided	0	12	1	13	2
MoE	±4.7	±4.9	±4.8	±5	±4.5