You do not see Flash Report’s Jon Fleischman, who represents nothing if not the internal voice of the California Yacht Party (he’s the Vice Chair, after all), this concerned about a Republican-held seat.  Not every day.

The Democrats have moved the 10th Assembly District near the top of their wish-list, and for good reason.  First, the seat is open, which always makes for a more interesting contest.  Second, a once six-point Republican partisan voter registration advantage has shrunk to just two points.

The 10th District is located in the San Joaquin Valley, split over four counties — El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and San Joaquin.

Compounding matters for Republican strategists, not only was there a pretty brutal GOP primary contest back in June, but this seat overlaps several U.S. House seats that will likely see action — CD 3 where Dan Lungren is seeking re-election, CD 4 where Tom McClintock is running, and, of course, CD 11 where Dean Andal is trying to take out freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (this is a top tier seat).

What Fleischman is correctly describing is what I would call the “Carol Shea-Porter effect.”  In 2006, Paul Hodes got a lot of establishment and netroots support in his Congressional race in New Hampshire, while the neighboring Carol Shea-Porter got virtually none.  However, the state of New Hampshire all resides in the same media market.  So Hodes’ ads pummeling his opponent and Republicans in general ended up resonating on Carol Shea-Porter’s side of the district.  In the end, both Democrats won, with Shea-Porter’s victory a major upset.

The same is true for Alyson Huber in AD-10 and her race against Yacht Party member in good standing Jack Sieglock.  With contested elections throughout her area – in CA-11, CA-03 and CA-04 – Huber’s message of change and fighting failed conservative values and ideas will be amplified.  In addition, the GOTV programs from those candidates will snag voters for AD-10 (and Joan Buchanan in AD-15) as well.  With 82% of voters seeing the budget as a major problem, this is a teachable moment for Democrats, who can tie the burdensome 2/3 requirement and Republican ideological intransigence to a state falling behind, and drive home the need for fundamental change.

Sieglock’s bitter primary has given Huber a head start up here.  Even his consultant agrees: “Jack is a very good candidate, but he’s had a tougher road through the primary than his opponent, and that puts us behind.”  Add that to the more sophisticated GOTV program for Democrats this cycle, and AD-10 is well within reach.  With some good bounces, we can get to a 2/3 majority.

The California Target Book released its August “hot sheet” listing potential competitive seats throughout the state legislature.  Well, two can play at this game.  Here are the competitive seats as I see them and a little precis about them:

State Senate

1. SD-19.  Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) v. Tony Strickland (R).  Sadly, thanks to Don Perata’s bungling and undermining this is likely to be the only competitive race out of the 20 up for election in the state Senate.  The good news is that it would be an absolute sea change to replace Tom McClintock with a true progressive like Hannah-Beth Jackson.  With Ventura County’s registration flipping to Democrats over the past year, Ronald Reagan country is no longer solidly red.  Hannah-Beth has been actively courting voters at community events (there’s a BBQ in honor of the “Gap” firefighters on Sunday) and she’s wrapped up lots of endorsements.  With this being the only competitive race, expect it to be costly, as both sides throw millions into capturing the seat.  A win here would put us one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Senate.

Assembly on the flip…

State Assembly

1. AD-80.  Manuel Perez (D) v. Gary Jeandron (R).  Perez appears to have the right profile for this plurality-Democratic seat currently held by the termed-out Bonnie Garcia.  The most recent poll showed him with a double-digit lead, and he’s consolidating his support by earning the endorsements of the local Stonewall Democratic Club and his primary rival Greg Pettis.  This race is looking strong, and hopefully the raising of performance among Hispanic voters will aid Julie Bornstein in her CA-45 race against Mary Bono.

2. AD-78.  Marty Block (D) vs. John McCann (R).  Block, a Board of Trustees member at San Diego Community College and former dean at San Diego State University, also has a favorable registration advantage in his race against Chula Vista Councilmember John McCann.  This should be a case of party ID sweeping in a lawmaker in a progressive wave thanks to increased turnout for the Presidential election.  Block needs to do his part, of course, in making the case that the 2/3 majority is vital for responsible governance.

3. AD-15.  Joan Buchanan (D) v. Abram Wilson (R).  After a bruising primary, San Ramon Mayor Wilson has barely survived to defend the seat held by Guy Houston against San Ramon Valley school board member Buchanan, who did not have a competitive primary.  She has outraised Wilson by almost 2 to 1 so far in the race and the registration numbers are about even.  I think we have a real chance here.

4. AD-30.  Fran Florez (D) v. Danny Gilmore (R).  This is currently a Democratic seat held by Yacht Dog Nicole Parra, who has practically endorsed the Republican Gilmore for the seat.  That’s unhelpful, but in a Democratic year Gilmore has an uphill climb.  The California Faculty Association has targeted Gilmore in their ads that campaign on the budget, and voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP in droves.  Gilmore has a shot, but I think Florez is in a comfortable position.

5. AD-10.  Alyson Huber (D) vs. Jack Sieglock (R).  Huber, about to hold her campaign kick-off this weekend, is in a district that is rapidly changing.  Registration has shifted over 3% in just two years.  This is a race in the Sacramento area that Randy Bayne covers intently, and he’s fairly high on Huber.  Jack Sieglock is your basic Republican rubber stamp that puts “conservative Republican” in his title, and I’m not certain the district is still organized that way.  This race is also seeing ads from the California Faculty Association.

6: AD-26.  John Eisenhut (D) v. William Berryhill (R).  This is Greg Aghazarian’s old seat, also in northern California in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.  Stanislaus recently flipped to Democrats, and Eisenhut, a local almond farmer, fits the profile of the district pretty well.  Berryhill, whose brother Tom is in the Assembly, is also a farmer, and is banking on the Berryhill name ID to win.  There’s a good synopsis of the race here.  Democrats actually have the registration edge in this district.

7. AD-36.  Linda Jones (D) v. Steve Knight (R). Linda is a teacher, school board member and former vocational nurse.  This is an outside shot, but I’m told that the Palmdale-area seat is turning around and may accept a Democrat this time around.

8. AD-59. Donald Williamson (D) v. Anthony Adams (R).  Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle.  But Bill Postmus’ explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile in the district.  This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive.

9. AD-37. Ferial Masry (D) v. Audra Strickland (R).  This is another Republican incumbent, and it’s in the same relative district as SD-19 – in fact, the Republicans in both races are Stricklands.  So maybe there will be a residual effect to Hannah-Beth Jackson’s efforts.  Masry, an Arab-American, has been getting good press in the district and definitely has an outside chance.

By Randy Bayne
The Bayne of Blog

Jim Cook, in his third attempt at winning the 10th Assembly District, is beginning to realize that the third time isn't always a charm. He hasn't quite given up, but in an interview with the Stockton Record, Cook's answers to questions seemed resigned and even bitter.

Cook was asked why he is running for a third time after a bruising defeat (61% to 34%) in which votes for Cook didn't even reach the Democratic registration in the district. His answer was a stock answer from someone who sees a campaign slipping away. To “force” the agenda, “force other people who are running to hold up their end of the bargain…” He added, “I'll just do my best.”

This is a far cry from what I've heard from Cook before. Just a few weeks ago he told an audience at a forum in Sacramento that he was “in this to win.” Now he just wants to do his best. What's changed? For one, his opponent, Alyson Huber, has been picking up support and endorsements from people and groups who supported Cook in the past. One apparent sore point is the Democratic Party endorsement that Huber won last month.

Do you feel abandoned by the Democratic Party, which has endorsed Huber? “I think it's good for the party. It's obvious that I don't fit the progressive Democratic agenda: I'm more conservative than them. Some in the progressive movement wanted to move in another direction. They've gone out and circled the wagons on me.” 

I'm not sure what it is that he is saying is “good for the party.” The competition perhaps, or maybe two sides, one conservative, one progressive, pulling toward the middle. What he does admit is that he isn't where the party wants to be, and he sounds bitter saying “they've gone out and circled the wagons on me.”

Far from circling wagons, Democrats in AD-10 are looking forward. We've put our hopes on Cook twice before. This year, there is another candidate in the race that, unfortunately for Cook, is seen as having the best chance to put this district in the Democratic column.

Huber summed up the feelings of voters in one of her answers that referred to Cook's loss in 2006.

“After I saw what happened in 2006” – Cook earned a lower percentage of the vote than the baseline percentage of Democrats in the 10th District – “I really felt like we needed a new candidate. It's time to try something new.”

Cook has had ample opportunity to prove himself to voters. In his first run in 2004 he was a write-in candidate. In 2006 he defeated Kevin Tate in the primary. Both years he lost in the general. If Cook sees wagons circling, they aren't circling him. The wagons are circling around Huber, preparing to carry a new candidate and a new hope for 10th AD Democrats.