Tag Archives: AD-59

California

State Legislature Picture – One Week Out

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As Brian hit earlier today, these are tough times for the California Yacht Party.  There are competitive races in the state Legislature, in particular the Assembly, in over 30% of the seats currently held by Republicans.  Democratic allies are obviously feeling excited about these races as well, as the independent expenditures have jumped.  Here’s my list of the top races in order of likelihood of a flip:

ASSEMBLY:

1) AD-80. Manuel Perez (D) is poised for victory in this Palm Springs-area seat.  The polls have shown double-digit leads.  LIKELY DEM.

2) AD-78.  Marty Block (D), the recipient of a lot of that largesse from the IE’s, is not in an easy race with Republican John McCann (not McCain) by any stretch.  The ads have been tough on both sides and the California Dental Association is unusually interested in knocking off Block.  But it’s a Democratic year and the top of the ticket should help him.  LEAN DEM.

3) AD-15.  The big news here is that Ed Chavez, the Republican mayor of Stockton, endorsed Joan Buchanan for this seat.  Chavez is a moderate and a former Democrat, but an endorsement like this in one of the bigger cities in the district is helpful.  Buchanan looks strong.  LEAN DEM.

4) AD-10.  Calitics Match candidate Alyson Huber has her very first ad on the air, attacking her opponent Jack Sieglock for being a “career politician.”  It’s funny, too (although I think everyone has to stop with the I’m a Mac/I’m a PC parodies).  The response from the Sieglock camp has been to call Huber a carpetbagger, but considering she’s lived in the area and went to college there before transferring to Cornell, that hit doesn’t make a lot of sense.  Unions are spending big up here.  I think this one goes late into Election Night.  TOSS UP.

5) AD-26.  Jack O’Connell just endorsed John Eisenhut, and the state Democratic Party obviously has some numbers it likes – they just poured $300,000 into the race.  There’s going to be a major flooding of the district with cash in the final week, and Eisenhut has a 5:1 cash-on-hand advantage.  I really think this one is close, with Bill Berryhill slightly favored.  SLIGHT LEAN REPUBLICAN.

6) AD-36.  It really would be incredible to pull off this race.  A Democrat has not represented Palmdale in this seat since 1974.  But Linda Jones has a real chance to pull this off.  Republican Steve Knight is an LAPD officer and he’s still favored, but I’m hoping against hope.  This is the tipping point race.  LEAN REPUBLICAN.

7) AD-37.  Ferial Masry’s third try to unseat Audra Strickland (R) is getting a lot of residual help in this race from the hotly contested Senate contest in SD-19 between Tony Strickland.  I don’t see a lot of people voting for one Strickland and not the other, so it’s even more helpful in this case.  Timm Herdt of the Ventura County Star thinks the race is tightening – he’s seen Strickland release several mailers and the Democratic Party play a bit on Masry’s behalf.  Alberto Torrico and Karen Bass have been in the district.  This is a sleeper.  LEAN REPUBLICAN.

8) AD-02.  The only reason this is up there is because the guy the Republicans put up may not live in the district.

A claim that Republican Assembly candidate Jim Nielsen doesn’t live in the district in which he’s running has apparently led the secretary of state’s office to refer the case for prosecution.

Complainant Barry Clausen of Redding received a letter from the state office, dated Tuesday. The one-page notice says it has concluded its investigation against Nielsen and referred the case for prosecution to the state attorney general’s office.

Going to the AG’s office is pretty far down the road.  Paul Singh might just back into this race.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

9) AD-59. Anthony Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle.  But Bill Postmus’ explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Donald Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile.  This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

10) AD-66.  There’s still the idea that Grey Frandsen can steal this seat for the Democrats, and while it’s unlikely against incumbent Kevin Jeffries, The local Inland Empire paper has kept an eye on this race.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

AD-63 and AD-65 have potential as well, but this time I think they’re SAFE.

SENATE:

1) SD-19.  This is just an epic battle with loads of cash on both sides, mainly because it’s the only seat worth playing in for the State Senate.  The Ventura County Star endorsed Hannah-Beth Jackson over Tony Strickland, and she used some humor to mock Strickland’s endless attack mailers.  It’s going to be a long night waiting for this one in Ventura and Santa Barbara County. TOSS-UP.

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The Calitics Target Book – The Drive For 2/3

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The California Target Book released its August “hot sheet” listing potential competitive seats throughout the state legislature.  Well, two can play at this game.  Here are the competitive seats as I see them and a little precis about them:

State Senate

1. SD-19.  Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) v. Tony Strickland (R).  Sadly, thanks to Don Perata’s bungling and undermining this is likely to be the only competitive race out of the 20 up for election in the state Senate.  The good news is that it would be an absolute sea change to replace Tom McClintock with a true progressive like Hannah-Beth Jackson.  With Ventura County’s registration flipping to Democrats over the past year, Ronald Reagan country is no longer solidly red.  Hannah-Beth has been actively courting voters at community events (there’s a BBQ in honor of the “Gap” firefighters on Sunday) and she’s wrapped up lots of endorsements.  With this being the only competitive race, expect it to be costly, as both sides throw millions into capturing the seat.  A win here would put us one seat away from a 2/3 majority in the Senate.

Assembly on the flip…

State Assembly

1. AD-80.  Manuel Perez (D) v. Gary Jeandron (R).  Perez appears to have the right profile for this plurality-Democratic seat currently held by the termed-out Bonnie Garcia.  The most recent poll showed him with a double-digit lead, and he’s consolidating his support by earning the endorsements of the local Stonewall Democratic Club and his primary rival Greg Pettis.  This race is looking strong, and hopefully the raising of performance among Hispanic voters will aid Julie Bornstein in her CA-45 race against Mary Bono.

2. AD-78.  Marty Block (D) vs. John McCann (R).  Block, a Board of Trustees member at San Diego Community College and former dean at San Diego State University, also has a favorable registration advantage in his race against Chula Vista Councilmember John McCann.  This should be a case of party ID sweeping in a lawmaker in a progressive wave thanks to increased turnout for the Presidential election.  Block needs to do his part, of course, in making the case that the 2/3 majority is vital for responsible governance.

3. AD-15.  Joan Buchanan (D) v. Abram Wilson (R).  After a bruising primary, San Ramon Mayor Wilson has barely survived to defend the seat held by Guy Houston against San Ramon Valley school board member Buchanan, who did not have a competitive primary.  She has outraised Wilson by almost 2 to 1 so far in the race and the registration numbers are about even.  I think we have a real chance here.

4. AD-30.  Fran Florez (D) v. Danny Gilmore (R).  This is currently a Democratic seat held by Yacht Dog Nicole Parra, who has practically endorsed the Republican Gilmore for the seat.  That’s unhelpful, but in a Democratic year Gilmore has an uphill climb.  The California Faculty Association has targeted Gilmore in their ads that campaign on the budget, and voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP in droves.  Gilmore has a shot, but I think Florez is in a comfortable position.

5. AD-10.  Alyson Huber (D) vs. Jack Sieglock (R).  Huber, about to hold her campaign kick-off this weekend, is in a district that is rapidly changing.  Registration has shifted over 3% in just two years.  This is a race in the Sacramento area that Randy Bayne covers intently, and he’s fairly high on Huber.  Jack Sieglock is your basic Republican rubber stamp that puts “conservative Republican” in his title, and I’m not certain the district is still organized that way.  This race is also seeing ads from the California Faculty Association.

6: AD-26.  John Eisenhut (D) v. William Berryhill (R).  This is Greg Aghazarian’s old seat, also in northern California in Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties.  Stanislaus recently flipped to Democrats, and Eisenhut, a local almond farmer, fits the profile of the district pretty well.  Berryhill, whose brother Tom is in the Assembly, is also a farmer, and is banking on the Berryhill name ID to win.  There’s a good synopsis of the race here.  Democrats actually have the registration edge in this district.

7. AD-36.  Linda Jones (D) v. Steve Knight (R). Linda is a teacher, school board member and former vocational nurse.  This is an outside shot, but I’m told that the Palmdale-area seat is turning around and may accept a Democrat this time around.

8. AD-59. Donald Williamson (D) v. Anthony Adams (R).  Adams is actually an incumbent, making this a more difficult battle.  But Bill Postmus’ explosion in San Bernardino county has soured the reputation of Republicans in the district, and Williamson, the San Bernardino County assessor, has a decent profile in the district.  This is certainly on the far outside edge of being competitive.

9. AD-37. Ferial Masry (D) v. Audra Strickland (R).  This is another Republican incumbent, and it’s in the same relative district as SD-19 – in fact, the Republicans in both races are Stricklands.  So maybe there will be a residual effect to Hannah-Beth Jackson’s efforts.  Masry, an Arab-American, has been getting good press in the district and definitely has an outside chance.