Tag Archives: Hispanic voters

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Couldn’t Happen To A Nicer Vote Suppressor

Remember good ol’ Tan Nguyen?  He was the candidate running against Loretta Sanchez in 2006 who sent out that mailer to the Hispanic community in the district claiming they would be deported if they tried to vote.  So, OK, he was indicted yesterday.

A federal grand jury indicted a former Republican Congressional candidate on an obstruction-of-justice charge on Wednesday after an investigation into a letter his campaign sent to Hispanic voters. The man, Tan Nguyen, a Vietnamese immigrant who unsuccessfully ran in the 47th Congressional District in Orange County in 2006 against Representative Loretta Sanchez, is accused of misleading state investigators looking into the mailer.

Oddly, he wasn’t indicted on the content of the mailer itself, which could be considered wire fraud, but maybe there will be time for that later.

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AD-80: Perez’ Statement of Victory

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Your next Assemblyman from the 80th District:

Coachella, CA – Early this morning Manuel Perez declared victory in the Democratic primary in the 80th Assembly District. Perez won an overwhelming victory by building a strong multi-ethnic and diverse coalition in Riverside County and Imperial County.

“People power made the difference in this election,” declared Democratic nominee Manuel Perez. “My message of hope and values resonated across both counties as voters yearned for new leadership, new energy and common values.”

Progressives around the state could really learn from this guy.  I met Manuel Perez almost a year ago and was really thrilled by the transformative nature of his candidacy, someone who understands the issues facing California but can also put together the progressive argument in a broad and powerful way.  Plus he can reach out and help build a new generation of Hispanic leadership in the desert area that will leave its mark long after he’s out of the picture.  Mark my words, there’s a leadership position in this guy’s future, sooner rather than later.

The great thing is that the best chance we have for a pickup in November is not a Lou Correa-type Democrat but a real fighter for progressive values.  You don’t have to be afraid of your beliefs, you can speak to them and win.  That’s what Perez’ victory signifies.

(and a little labor money didn’t hurt either)

California

A Killer Data Point In the Latest California PPIC poll

The latest PPIC poll, a pretty decent one in California, has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 17 points, 54-37.  It’s a large sample size including 2003 Californians and 1086 likely voters, so it’s a fairly robust poll amongst age groups and ethnicities.  And if this data point is correct, Barack Obama looks VERY strong for November.

According to the poll, Obama leads McCain among Hispanics 69-20.

That’s a “game over” type of number if it holds.

Cast your memory back to the February primaries, and you may remember that Obama’s problem area was not white working-class voters, as they have been so eloquently called, but Hispanics.  Much ink was spilled over how Obama couldn’t connect with them, how there was all this antipathy between the black and brown communities, and it did manifest itself in the voting, at least in California.  Hillary Clinton cleaned up in the heavily Hispanic areas in Southern California.  In fact, it made up very nearly all of her delegate and popular vote win in the state.  She had the backing of the Latino establishment and worked them extremely hard to get out the vote, which they did in big numbers.

I don’t think anybody expected Obama to rebound among these voters this strongly, this soon.  But his favorables among Hispanics are right in line with his share of the vote over McCain, at 69%.

It’s one poll and it’s one data point.  But extrapolate it out.  The legendary figure is that Hispanics voted 44% for Bush in 2004.  That’s probably not true – it was probably around 39%.  However, that’s substantially larger than 20% – and remember that Bush only won by 3 points, and Hispanic voters may be a slightly higher share of the electorate this year.

Again, it’s one point in one poll, but if California’s Hispanics voted at similar rates to the rest of the country’s, then Colorado would be done, New Mexico would be done, Nevada would be close to done, Arizona would be in play, Texas would be in play, North Carolina and Georgia (with growing Hispanic regions) would be in play… you get the picture.  Rove’s “permanent Republican majority” relied on chipping away at a chunk of Hispanic voters while maintaining the white vote and building the coalition.  The fearmongering and demagoguery over immigration reform, even though McCain nominally supported it (until the primary), has tarnished the Republican brand significantly among this subgroup.  There’s no other explanation for these numbers.

If John McCain gets 20-25% of the Hispanic vote he can’t win the election.  The highest that Kerry ever polled among Hispanics was 59-31.  This is ten points below what Obama’s polling in California.  This is a bigger lead than Democrats had in 2006 among Hispanics.

I think it’s kind of a big deal.