Charlie Cook, the favored Congressional tipster for insiders, is notoriously conservative in his selections.  And as such, he’s slow to recognize races that, based on outdated fundamentals, simply “can’t” be competitive.  It’s embarrassing that it’s taken him this long to move CA-04 to a toss-up.  Here’s his precis:

CA-04 OPEN (Doolittle) Lean Republican to Toss Up

All GOP state Sen. Tom McClintock needed to do to put this district away was to run ads noting Democratic nominee Charlie Brown’s attendance at anti-war rallies. The only problem? McClintock ran out of money too soon and has been inexplicably “dark” on broadcast television in the final phase of the campaign, allowing Brown and the DCCC to remain in strong contention by portraying McClintock as a carpetbagger and self-serving career politician.

Republicans in Washington fret that McClintock has run a second rate campaign and that even with an extensive statewide fundraising network, he has failed to put together a competent media strategy. The NRCC, too broke to come to McClintock’s rescue, is also off the air in the expensive Sacramento market. Some Republicans suggest that in the end, their biggest advantage in this district may be the presence of Proposition 8, a measure to eliminate same-sex marriage, on the California ballot. This race should be a slam dunk for the GOP, but right now it is a toss up.

First of all, there’s no way that misleading anti-war rally attack would have derailed the Brown campaign.  Most of the country is against the war.  But putting that aside, Cook shares my astonishment that Mr. Fiscal Conservative McClintock managed to run out of money weeks before the race was over.  That is some epic mismanagement.

Cook is wrong about another thing, the NRCC is trying to ride to the rescue, up with a new ad trying to paint Brown as a “liberal yes man.”  I just don’t think this is the year to throw around the “L” word like it’s some kind of boogeyman.  Anyway, don’t they know that these days, you’re supposed to call the Democrat a socialist or a Marxist?  Looking at the ad, it looks like the NRCC and McClintock went Dutch on it.

The point is that the GOP hasn’t totally given up on this race, and while I’m confident in Brown’s abilities he could definitely use some reinforcements in the final week.  You can give at the Calitics ActBlue page.