Jessica’s Law has some serious flaws.  Few are actually willing to discuss them because they fear being labelled as Soft On Crime^TM.  The Modesto Bee points out some of the problems:

Sex offenders who prey on children are every parent’s nightmare, and understandably so. But fear and other emotions must be set aside in weighing whether Proposition 83 really will make children substantially safer.

The proposition would increase prison sentences for sex offenders; require lifelong monitoring for some offenders and further restrict where registered sex offenders could live. Those sound appealing, as does the initiative’s title — the Sex Offenders, Sexually Violent Predators, Punishment, Residence Restrictions and Monitoring Initiative Statute. … We have three serious concerns: (ModBee 9/27/06)

The 3 negatives they cite:

1. This law does nothing for non-stranger molestation
2. It’s expensive without much in the way of proven results.
3. All of the sex offenders end up getting pushed to rural and suburban areas.  In my opinion this is the big one.  You are shipping these people off to the Central Valley, the Deserts, and Far Northern California.  They are miles from the services they need and are required under law.

There are a ton of reasons to be against this law.  We have other laws (including one this year by Sen. Jackie Speier, SB 1178, signed by the governor) and this is mostly duplicative of other laws.  What policies it adds are actually bad policy.  There is only one reason to support this law, the politicial calculus of not supporting it.  It’s a shame, but it even swept up Phil into supporting this bad law.

Fear breeds bad law. Kudos to the Modesto Bee, which typically isn’t one of my favorite papers/editorial pages, for speaking truth to power on Jessica’s Law.

(A repost to fix some formatting. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

I’ll start with the good news.  Prop 87, the alternative energy and oil tax initiative, is way ahead right now.  It leads 52-31 right now, including 58% support from decline to state voters.  If that number remains in that ballpark, 87 has a great shot at passing. 

Prop 87 is an interesting initiative.  I’ll be doing a longer post on it in the near future, but as a former Texan, it boggles my mind that the state keeps so little of its mineral revenues.  The entire University system in Texas was built off those revenues, but somehow California didn’t jump on that train.  Personally, I would prefer that those revenues be given to the general fund rather than a specific purpose.  Alternative energy is great (and I just posted on that last week), but the state needs all the revenue it can get.  It would be the best to let that money into the general fund and then hash out details in the normal budget process (if it really can ever be called normal).

The cigarette tax initiave, Prop 86, is up 63-32.  I’m not sure how I feel about this one.  I like the purposes it goes to, but I’m just concerned over whether this law would violate the terms of the tobacco settlement. I would prefer that the state avoid another bout of massive litigation if possible.  The no voters on this ballot seem to be smokers, as they are the only demographic rejecting it right now (72-31).

Unsuprisingly, Jessica’s law, Prop 83, is passing overwhelmingly, 76-11.  I’m not sure that we really need a ballot initiative on this, mainly because most of the issues in the law were already addressed by Jackie Speier’s law on sex offenders.  But, you can see why Angelides was almost forced by popular will to support this bill.

The Anti-choice initiative, Prop 85, is currently trailing, but just barely.  It looks like there will be another battle.  These people will never give up, no matter how many times the people of this state say that we don’t want these anti-choice laws here. Phil Angelides has denounced the initiative. I haven’t seen anything official from Schwarzenegger, but he supported last year’s nearly identical Prop 73.

And finally, Prop 90 has a plurality of support as well. It currently leads 46-31, but right now it has a 42-32 lead amongst Democrats.  Once the message goes out about how bad Prop 90 is, the No tally will increase quickly.

Incidentally, it’s important to note that the no tally generally increases as the election draws near.  Voters are usually drawn towards the status quo (typically No), so expect to see some drift there.  Last June’s Prop 82 was a good example of this, it started off quite strong, but inertia (and a blitz of advertising) overcame its initial approval. 

These numbers will soon appear on the flip and in the Poll HQ.