Tag Archives: Assembly

2008 Assembly and Senate Outlook

(With Republicans’ budget tantrum swinging legislative approval to such a degree — and with the GOP tanking nationally — I wanted to bump this as races that might have felt out of reach a year ago are now potentially competitive. – promoted by Bob Brigham)

The 2006 California Legislative election have come and gone with no change in the composition of either the Assembly or Senate.  In the Senate,.we kept the 25-15 lead thanks to Lou Correa’s narrow win in SD-24.  The only near miss was Democratic challenger Wiley Nickel narrowly losing to Republican incumbent Jeff Denham in SD-12.  In the Assembly, things are still 48-32, just as they were before the election.  So, onward to 2008.

For the most part, I’m going to be focusing on open seats since that’s where most of the action is.  In 2008, the odd-numbered Senate seats are up.

(More after the flip)

23 Assemblymen are term-limited in 2008, 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats.  Here are the districts which will be open, the term-limited incumbent (for reference) and the registration statistics.

Republicans-Held Seats (12):

AD-02 (Doug La Malfa)

Democratic: 31.93%
Republican: 47.82%

Gap: R+15.89

AD-03 (Rick Keene)

Democratic: 33.33%
Republican: 42.27%

Gap: R+8.94

AD-10 (Alan Nakanishi)

Democratic: 37.77%
Republican: 42.07%

Gap: R+4.30

AD-15 (Guy Houston)

Democratic: 38.02%
Republican: 40.19%

Gap: R+2.17

AD-26 (Greg Aghazarian)

Democratic: 40.92%
Republican: 42.20%

Gap: R+1.28

AD-34 (Bill Maze)

Democratic: 32.87%
Republican: 47.22%

Gap: R+14.35

AD-36 (Sharon Runner)

Democratic: 35.53%
Republican: 43.94%

Gap: R+8.41

AD-64 (John Benoit)

Democratic: 33.50%
Republican: 46.04%

Gap: R+12.54

AD-71 (Todd Spitzer)

Democratic: 26.50%
Republican: 52.68%

Gap: R+26.18

AD-75 (George Plescia)

Democratic: 28.70%
Republican: 43.57%

Gap: R+14.87

AD-78 (Shirley Horton)

Democratic: 40.89%
Republican: 34.75%

Gap: D+6.14

AD-80 (Bonnie Garcia)

Democratic: 45.59%
Republican: 37.37%

Gap: D+8.22

We can classify these as such

Non-competitive:

AD-71: R+26.18
AD-02: R+15.89
AD-75: R+14.87
AD-34: R+14.35
AD-64: R+12.54

Potentially Competitive:

AD-03: R+8.94
AD-36: R+8.41
AD-10: R+4.30
AD-15: R+2.17
AD-26: R+1.28

Lean Democratic:

AD-78: D+6.14
AD-80: D+8.22

Democratic-Held Seats (11):

AD-01 (Patty Berg)

Democratic: 44.54%
Republican: 28.45%

Gap: D+16.09

AD-08 (Lois Wolk)

Democratic: 45.53%
Republican: 30.06%

Gap: D+15.47

AD-13 (Mark Leno)

Democratic: 56.21%
Republican: 9.66%

Gap: D+46.55

AD-14 (Loni Hancock)

Democratic: 58.48%
Republican: 15.50%

Gap: D+42.98

AD-19 (Gene Mullin)

Democratic: 50.10%
Republican: 23.04%

Gap: D+27.06

AD-22 (Sally Lieber)

Democratic: 43.25%
Republican: 24.56%

Gap: D+18.69

AD-27 (John Laird)

Democratic: 47.98%
Republican: 26.61%

Gap: D+21.37

AD-30 (Nicole Parra)

Democratic: 47.38%
Republican: 38.16%

Gap: D+9.22

AD-40 (Lloyd Levine)

Democratic: 47.84%
Republican: 28.65%

Gap: D+19.19

AD-46 (Fabian Nunez)

Democratic: 63.01%
Republican: 13.69%

Gap: D+49.32

AD-52 (Mervyn Dymally)

Democratic: 67.24%
Republican: 14.19%

Gap: D+53.05

So, these can be classified as

Not competitive:

AD-52: D+53.05
AD-46: D+49.32
AD-13: D+46.55
AD-14: D+42.98
AD-19: D+27.06
AD-27: D+21.37
AD-40: D+19.19
AD-22: D+18.69
AD-01: D+16.09
AD-08: D+15.47

Potentially competitive:

AD-30: D+9.22

Senate:

10 Senators are term-limited in 2008, 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans.  I’m also going to include one-term Senator Abel Maldonado on the list because his increasingly Democratic district could be a pickup with the right candidate (John Laird?).

Democratic-Held Seats:

SD-05 (Michael Machado)

Democratic: 45.82%
Republican: 33.26%

Gap: D+12.56

SD-07 (Tom Torlakson)

Democratic: 46.66%
Republican: 31.06%

Gap: D+15.60

SD-09 (Don Perata)

Democratic: 59.07%
Republican: 13.78%

Gap: D+45.29

SD-21 (Jack Scott)

Democratic: 45.69%
Republican: 29.13%

Gap: D+16.56

SD-23 (Sheila Kuehl)

Democratic: 50.01%
Republican: 25.83%

Gap: D+24.18

SD-25 (Edward Vincent)

Democratic: 58.64%
Republican: 21.72%

Gap: D+36.92


Not competitive:

SD-09: D+45.29
SD-25: D+36.92
SD-23: D+24.18
SD-21: D+16.56
SD-07: D+15.60
SD-05: D+12.56

Republican-Held Seats:

SD-15 (Abel Maldonado) (not term-limited but I wanted to include because it is a Democratic-favoring seat)

Democratic: 39.56%
Republican: 37.32%

Gap: D+2.24

SD-19 (Tom McClintock)

Democratic: 36.04%
Republican: 40.99%

Gap: R+4.95

SD-29 (Bob Margett)

Democratic: 32.18%
Republican: 45.16%

Gap: R+12.98

SD-33 (Dick Ackerman)

Democratic: 26.90%
Republican: 51.39%

Gap: R+24.49

SD-37 (Jim Battin)

Democratic: 34.42%
Republican: 45.98%

Gap: R+11.56

Not competitive:

SD-33: R+24.49
SD-29: R+12.98

SD-37: R+11.56

Potentially competitive:

SD-19: R+4.95
SD-15: D+2.24

So, in conclusion, some key races to target and defend are:

Republican-Held Seats:

AD-03: R+8.94
AD-36: R+8.41
AD-10: R+4.30
AD-15: R+2.17
AD-26: R+1.28
AD-78: D+6.14
AD-80: D+8.22
SD-19: R+4.95
SD-15: D+2.24

Democratic-Held Seats:

AD-30: D+9.22

Ted Gaines Too “Busy” To Talk To Voters

Ted Gaines (handpicked by the corrupt and ineffective John Doolittle) is too “busy” to go out and meet the voters in his district. This has gone so far that the Auburn Journal felt compelled to write a story about it:

As the Nov. 7 general election draws near, District 4 California State Assembly candidates Rob Haswell and Ted Gaines are battling hard in last-push efforts to reach out to voters.

But while one candidate has attended many public forums, the other has chosen not to show up.

Democratic candidate Haswell, 43 has been walking precincts, phone banking and attending any public forum he can.

To be fair, Gaines did show up at one forum:

“Ted did accept one forum, but it was not open to the public,” Haswell said. “I would be willing to accept any offer and I was hoping that we would have some debates.”

But wait it gets better. Here’s what Ted Gaines has to say about it:

“I have just been trying to juggle all of my activities – my family, my business and my duties as a supervisor,” Gaines said. “Those combined with campaigning have really kept me busy. I am getting out there and trying to meet as many voters as I can.”

After reading this “excuse”, what do you think? Do you honestly believe that this man will work his ass off for the residents of his district? Or will he be too “busy” to care? I’ve got a faint feeling that this man has a sense of entitlement, that he feels because this has been a Republican district for quite a while, that the annointment by John Doolittle is all he needs.

Well, Mr. Gaines, it takes a little more than that. Not debating your opponent, not showing up at public forums, not caring what the voters think is not the best choice.

There is of course an alternative to Ted “Busy” Gaines.

Rob Haswell has toured the district tirelessly, meeting as many voters as he possibly can and answering all their questions. If you haven’t heard about Rob yet or if you want to learn more about him, then read this interview Rob has given to Turn Tahoe Blue.

If you think Rob deserves your support then vote for him and consider contributing to his campaign. As little as $5 will go a long way!

cross posted from Turn Tahoe Blue

My Interview With CA Assembly Candidate Rob Haswell (3)

(Rob’s a good guy, and would make a great Assemblyman. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

This is the third part of my interview with Rob Haswell, CA Assembly candidate from the 4th district which stretches from the Sacramento suburbs to Lake Tahoe, for my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue.

You can read part I at Turn Tahoe Blue or the Calitics cross-post.

You can read part II at Turn Tahoe Blue or the Calitics cross-post.

In this part Rob talks about the most pressing issues for the 4th district, preserving Lake Tahoe and gay marriage.

Is there a difference in the concerns of voters in your district between the more rural areas and small towns and the suburbs of Sacramento? What are the most pressing issues for voters in the 4th Assembly District?

  I’m not sure the concerns are all that different. It seems most of the voters from the Sacramento valley towns of Antelope, and Rio Linda, to Roseville and Rocklin and up into the foothills of Sierra like Placerville and Auburn and into the Lake Tahoe Basin people are worried about their quality of life. They are concerned about traffic congestion, the encroachment of suburban sprawl, public safety, keeping the water and air clean enough to drink and breath, keeping quality public schools open and safe. I don’t think those issues are all that different from one community to another. Without question, the number one issue on people’s minds is over development. If Placer and El Dorado counties lose their status as destination spots, you can bet that’s going to negatively impact the economy.

What needs to be done to preserve Lake Tahoe in the future? What do you think you can do in the Assembly?

  First off, we need people in political office that will be advocates for Lake Tahoe. It’s highly problematic to elect officials, such as my opponent, who have taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from developers. Having grown up just a few miles from the lake, I can tell you how much I value it as a natural and recreational resource. We need to ensure that the decision making done in relationship to Lake Tahoe and its surrounding areas for the coming decades is in the service of the preservation of the lake, first and foremost. That means that development in the area must be done with great care and with a defined long-term vision for the lake.

What is your position on GLBT issues, specifically on the gay marriage vs. civil unions issue which has received some attention in California recently?

  I am a supporter of marriage equality. All people should be treated equally under the law.

Rob has also published his statement on the healthcare crisis in California over at the California Progress Report yesterday. Go over there and read it!

You can help Rob get elected. Click on the links below to get more information on Rob and check out what you can do:

Rob Haswell’s Campaign Website

Haswell Campaign Journal

Contribute to Rob Haswell!


Attention:

You can read the 4th and final part of this interview here!

My Interview With CA Assembly Candidate Rob Haswell (2)

Here is the second part of the interview Rob Haswell, Democratic candidate for Assembly District 4, has granted my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue. (You can read part I at Turn Tahoe Blue or my diary here at Calitics.)

In this part he talks about Charlie Brown, the Doolittle political machine and the importance of national issues and the disillusionment with Bush for this election.

What is your relationship with Charlie Brown, who’s running for Congress and who’s district over lapses with yours? Do you think a success by his campaign could be helpful to you since your opponent Ted Gaines has aligned himself closely to corrupt Congressman John Doolittle?

  I have a good relationship with Charlie. He’s stepped up to take on one heck of a challenge in John Doolittle and everyone in the Brown campaign is working extremely hard to defeat him. There is no question that my opponent, Ted Gaines, is a product of the Doolittle political machine. Ted was essentially handpicked for this seat by John Doolittle and we don’t hesitate in pointing that out to folks. If both campaigns do well it will signal that Doolittle’s reign is over. To turn your question around a little, I think our success will help Charlie’s campaign because the voters our campaign turns out for an assembly race have a high likelihood of voting for Charlie in an “up ballot” race. I can tell you one other thing: This October and November we will produce the best coordinated GOTV operation that this district has seen from Democrats in years.

Do you think the general disillusionment by voters with the Bush administration will help you win? Have national issues come up often when you talk to voters?

  National issues are always on everyone’s mind, but I have to say, they don’t come up in the context of my race all that often. My race is relevant in national terms because, in some ways, it’s a microcosm of what’s happening at the Federal and State level. In the 4th Assembly District, big-city mega developers wield all the political power. Developers have invested, literally millions of dollars in state and local campaigns here. My opponent alone has taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from developers. This is an example of the undue influence the big corporate and special interests wield in today’s politics. It’s a big reason why we can’t have meaningful healthcare reform, while big pharmaceuticals and big insurance companies and big HMOs keep turning record profits while the rest of us pay more and get less, or don’t have health insurance at all. As far as disillusionment with the Bush administration goes, I think if Republicans are less inclined to go to the polls, while democrats and independents are more motivated to vote for change, that this could have a profound effect across the country and certainly in this district.

Towards the end of this part of the interview Rob mentioned health insurance. Just yesterday the Haswell campaign came out with a news release on this issue titled “Schwarzenegger Punts on Healthcare Reform – Governor Side with Failing Status Quo” (the following is from the news release, not part of the interview):

Democratic Candidate for State Assembly Rob Haswell took time off from his Whistle Stop tour to denounce Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s stand against universal healthcare. The State Legislature passed SB 840, which would establish a single-payer healthcare system that would offer health security for all Californians. Today, Schwarzenegger vowed to veto the bill.

“Time and again this governor has sided with large insurance companies and large corporate special interests, while turning away from California’s working poor, uninsured children and small business owners. Once again, the Governor is showing his true colors,” Haswell said.

Haswell derided Schwarzenegger’s claim that healthcare is a “top priority” and that he’d unveil his plan after November’s election. “Arnold’s political hero is Richard Nixon and it looks like he’s taking a page out of the Nixon playbook,” stated Haswell. “We’re still waiting for Nixon’s secret plan to end the Vietnam War, and I suspect we’ll be waiting just as long for Schwarzenegger’s secret healthcare plan. Meanwhile, the rest of us continue to pay more and get less while insurance companies make record profits.”

Recent estimates put the number of Californians living without insurance at between 6-7 million. SB 840 (Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica) would establish a single-payer system in which the state would take over the role that private insurance companies now play. Private medical groups and hospitals would continue to provide care as usual but would be paid through the state system.

You can do your part in helping Rob get elected to the Assembly by clicking on the following links:

Rob Haswell’s Campaign Website

Haswell Campaign Journal

Contribute to Rob Haswell!

Watch out for Part III tomorrow!

My Interview With CA Assembly Candidate Rob Haswell

cross posted from my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue

In the coming days I would like to focus on a great campaign which has so far mostly been ignored by the mainstream media, like so many other worthy “down-ticket” campaigns.

Rob Haswell is running for a traditionally Republican seat. Though, like so many seats this year no seat held by Republicans seems all that save, especially since this California Assembly district’s current representative is retiring making this an open seat.

California’s 4th Assemlby District stretches from the suburbs of Sacramento up to Lake Tahoe. It encompasses most of Placer and El Dorado counties, Alpine County, and a small part of Sacramento County.

Rob has been so kind to grant Turn Tahoe Blue an interview and it will be published in four parts in the coming days. Here’s the first part:

Mr. Haswell, let’s start with the easiest question first: Why are you running for office?

  Thank you, Sven for the opportunity and I appreciate your interest in Lake Tahoe and local races. I’m running for this open State Assembly seat because I think our political system has walked away from regular people and represents only big money corporate and special interests. This situation is killing representative democracy and we see the results of it in my own district, as our quality of life is being sold off to the highest bidder.

What has been your experience on the campaign trail so far?

  I’ve had a great experience so far on the campaign trail. I find that people of all political stripes are receptive to my message. And I’ve met a lot of great, committed people who want change. We are in the middle of a very successful Whistle Stop tour of the district and in just under three weeks we’ll be hosting the largest political rally and picnic the District’s ever seen. However, I do need to acknowledge there is a lot of cynicism and apathy when it comes to politics. And convincing people that, if they want real change, they have to work for it is an ongoing challenge. Nothing ever occurs because people wished it were so. You have to fight and work hard for it and that’s what our campaign is about.

Rob Haswell’s Campaign Website

The Haswell Campaign Journal

Contribute to Rob Haswell!

Watch out for Part II tomorrow!

For more on Rob Haswell and other California and Nevada campaigns important to the Lake Tahoe area go to Turn Tahoe Blue.

The Modern Campaign

cross-posted from my local blog Turn Tahoe Blue

Many people, especially in the media, think that modern campaigns means modern technology. And nothing more. I believe that is not the case and there are two campaigns in the Tahoe area that prove my point.

In Nevada Jack Carter sure uses modern technology, he uses the internet extensively, especially through the blogging activities of his daughter Sarah. This way the campaign got a lot of attention on the big blogs like Daily Kos and MyDD. She also writes daily for the Carter Blog on the Carter for Nevada campaign website. Furthermore the Carter campaign also employs YouTube and MySpace to connect to a wider audience.

All that said the Carter campaign is aware of the fact that if you wanna reach voters you have to go to where they live and engage with them face to face. Jack Carter is constantly traveling to meet voters. He has recently been on a tour through 11 towns throughout Nevada. He has realized that you have got to go to the rurals if you want the people living outside of the major cities and towns to vote for you. His rural strategy is an integral part of this.

A good example of modern campaigning in California is the candidate in the 4th Assembly district, Rob Haswell. He’s got a good campaign website which includes a campaign journal which keeps those interested in his campaign up to date.

Yet, Rob Haswell also realizes that if you wanna win you better get out and travel the district. So, he has recently announced that he will travel to every town in the district on his “Whistle Stop Bus Tour” saying in a press release:

I’m excited to begin our Whistle Stop Bus Tour because it will enable us to share ideas directly with voters in their own communities.

What both candidates have in common is that conventional wisdom and their party’s establishment don’t believe that these campaigns can win. Therefore both Jack Carter and Rob Haswell had to get creative. They both had to move beyond these perceptions and engage directly with as many voters as possible.

A combination of using modern technology, mostly the internet, and meeting face to face with voters is what a good modern campaign should look like. Jack Carter and Rob Haswell show how it’s done.

The Truth about John Russo

Dear Friend:

As you may know, we are strong supporters of John Russo for State
Assembly.  We know that John is the person we need in Sacramento.  We also know John personally and he has been a passionate, outspoken champion for our kids
and for our neighborhoods for nearly 20 years.

The Russo for Assembly campaign is going well.  John has done 75 House
Parties and has knocked on more than one thousand doors.  The campaign is
ready for the final push.  In fact, the Russo campaign has gone so well
that John’s opponents have resorted to distorting John’s record.  WE NEED
YOUR HELP to get the truth out about these mailicious distortions
because, without a response, many people will believe the lies.

Sandre Swanson’s supporters have made two claims against John.  One, that
in 1997 John supported a huge City Council pay increase; and, two, that
in 1997 John supported taking money away from the Kids First program.
Both of these claims are false.

Here are the facts:

1)  At no time during his nearly twelve years of excellent public service
has John ever made a discretionary vote to raise his own salary.  To the
contrary, when the City Council did have power over its own salaries,
John voted against two pay raises and refused to take a raise when he
lost on those motions.(Please see the attached Oakland Tribune column for
the real story.)  As City Attorney, John has no authority over his own
salary and, therefore, had no role in setting the City Attorney’s salary.
The City Attorney salary is determined by the City Charter.
Ironically, given the Swanson’s campaign’ lies, John Russo is the only
elected official in the East Bay to take a voluntary pay cut.  During the
Oakland budget crisis in 2002-03, John took a voluntary paycut that cost
him over $10,000.  He did this to encourage others in the City to give a
little so as to save jobs.  Unfortunatley, not one other City official or
employee followed his generous lead.

2)  John never voted to take money out of the calculated amount for
Kids First set aside.  The calculation was based upon the Charter and the
interpretation of the Charter by the City Attorney’s office and City
Staff. John was not the City Attorney at that time. The irony here is
that John was one of only 3 Councilmembers who supported the 1996
initiative creating the Kids First set aside.  And as City Attorney, John
issued opinions regarding the Kids First calculation that corrected the
earlier interpretation and has resulted in an additional  $1.67 Million
Dollars for the Kids First program. (Please go to the City Attorney’s
website and look under “Notable Cases” to find the truth for yourself.)

So here’s the situation:  Sandre Swanson’s friends from the Sacramento
PACs waited until the last minute and misrepresented John’s position on
two controversial measures.  They then use these distortions to suggest
John is greedy.  This is outrageous.  We need to stop them.  Here’s how:

TAKE THIS E-MAIL AND SEND IT TO EVERYONE ON YOUR E-MAIL LIST!  There is
great power in people who have the truth.  We have a chance here to say
no to negative and misleading campaigns right at our fingertips.  All we
have to do is let our friends know what is really going on.

Thanks for your time, and don’t forget to vote for John Russo for
Assembly.

Howard Neal, former President, Friends of Oakland Parks and Recreation
C.J. Hirschfield, Executive Director, Children’s Fairyland*

(*Children’s Fairyland name is used here for identification purposes only)