I’ve been getting some emails from several groups in support of one candidate or another. Mostly they are responses to the attack ads that have been airing recently.
On Angelides’s ads: There was a big hulabaloo about Angelides trying to get money from Joe Cari. You can read the story at the LA Times.
On Westly’s ads: The environmental groups are not happy about Westly’s representation of Angelides’ record on the environment. See more at Vote the Coast’s website.
Look, look! Something positive to come out of the campaigns. But, well, it’s not really coming out of the campaigns. But, be that it as it may, Phil Angelides, as the state treasurer, sent Barbara Boxer, a letter requesting her support for the Net Neutrality Bill. The money quote:
We cannot allow the next generation of entrepreneurs, artists, and civic groups to be slowed down by corporations erecting tollbooths on the Internet Superhighway. Continued innovation and access demand protection of Network Neutrality.
The full text of the letter is on the flip. I haven’t heard anything from the Westly campaign, but I expect that he also supports Net Neutrality. In fact eBay CEO Meg Whitman sent out an email to members encouraging them to contact their representatives in favor of Net Neutrality. If anybody knows of something that would indicate Westly and/or Schwarzenegger’s position, let me know.
May 23, 2006
The Honorable Barbara Boxer
United States Senate
112 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, D.C., 20510Dear Senator Boxer,
I am writing to urge your continued support for strong provisions for Network Neutrality when the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Technology this week considers S.2686, the Communications, Consumer’s Choice, and Broadband Deployment Act of 2006.
The Internet is the most dynamic and innovative means of communication and commerce developed in the last fifty years. We need to ensure that the Internet’s very nature of open access remains protected. However, the effective duopoly that controls broadband access for consumers, content providers, and applications developers––the largest telecommunications and cable corporations––threatens the very nature of the Internet. The business model they are promoting for the Internet would create a fast lane for those content and application providers able to pay for privileged access and a slow lane for small businesses, start-ups, and grassroots groups.
As Stanford Law School Professor Lawrence Lessig testified to your committee in February 2006, “By effectively auctioning off lanes of broadband service, this form of (access) tiering will restrict the opportunity of many to compete in providing new Internet service.” (2/7/06)
Open access has been one of the key drivers of the Internet economy over the last ten years. It has been vital to the success of Silicon Valley and the creation of hundreds of thousands of California jobs. We cannot allow the next generation of entrepreneurs, artists, and civic groups to be slowed down by corporations erecting tollbooths on the Internet Superhighway. Continued innovation and access demand protection of Network Neutrality.
Sincerely,
Phil Angelides
California State Treasurer
Open access has been one of the key drivers of the Internet economy
over the last ten years. It has been vital to the success of Silicon
Valley and the creation of hundreds of thousands of California jobs.
We cannot allow the next generation of entrepreneurs, artists, and
civic groups to be slowed down by corporations erecting tollbooths on
the Internet Superhighway. Continued innovation and access demand
protection of Network Neutrality.
Sincerely,
Phil Angelides
California State Treasurer
(Great work…Thanks again! – promoted by SFBrianCL)
To go with my final State Senate analysis, here is the Assembly. Like the Senate, I’m only including open seats, as there are too many incumbents to cover and they are almost all solid bets for reelection.
Read the rundown below the fold.
District 4 – Tim Leslie (R-Tahoe City) is term-limited. The prohibitive favorite all along has been Placer County Supervisor Ted Gaines.
District 6 – Joe Nation (D-San Rafael) is term-limited and challenging incumbent Congresswoman Lynn Woolsey in the primary for CD-06. Ironically, the story is the same in this district every six years, ever since Kerry Mazzoni and now Nation. Though a very liberal district, every six years it elects a moderate Democrat, with the liberal vote divided between several candidates. This year appears no different, with moderate Marin County Supervisor Cynthia Murray likely to squeak by a slew of liberals.
District 11 – Joe Canciamilla (D-Pittsburg) is term-limited, and though his wife Laura is running, the lion’s share of support will probably go to Contra Costa County Supervisor Mark DeSaulnier.
District 12 – Leland Yee (D-San Francisco) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. The primary battle is between San Francisco Supervisor Fiona Ma and newcomer Janet Reilly, both surprisingly moderate for San Francisco; expect Ma to win.
District 16 – Wilma Chan (D-Oakland) is term-limited. The two main candidates at this point, out of a fairly large field (this is Oakland, after all) appear to be Sandre Swanson, a candidate in 1996 against Don Perata (ironically now getting Perata’s support) and John Russo, a city attorney. If Swanson wins, it will be a big victory for the Black Caucus, which has been gunning for this seat ever since Barbara Lee left it in ’96.
District 17 – Barbara Matthews (D-Tracy) is term-limited. Cathleen Galgiani, Matthews’ chief of staff if memory serves, will win the primary and is slightly favored for November.
District 18 – Johan Klehs (D-San Leandro) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. Will it be Perata-endorsed former Alameda County Fire Chief Bill McCammon, or Mary Hayashi, wife of an unsuccessful 2004 candidate against Klehs? The primary here will be a test of Perata’s influence and of the Asian vote.
District 24 – Rebecca Cohn (D-Saratoga) is term-limited. Santa Clara County Supervisor Jim Beall should be it.
District 25 – Dave Cogdill (R-Modesto) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. The GOP primary here has gotten some press as of late due to a filthy campaign run by Bill Conrad against frontrunner Tom Berryhill.
District 28 – Simon Salinas (D-Salinas) is term-limited. Two well-known Latinas are facing off here: Salinas Mayor Anna Caballero and former Watsonville Mayor Ana Ventura Phares, with Caballero favored.
District 32 – Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) is leaving early to run for an open seat in Congress. With McCarthy’s late-breaking congressional run, the primary here is a little mystifying, but the Bill Thomas machine appears to be backing Bakersfield Superintendent Jean Fuller.
District 38 – Keith Richman (R-Northridge) is term-limited and running for Treasurer. Give this one to Santa Clarita Mayor Cameron Smyth.
District 39 – Cindy Montanez (D-San Fernando) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. Termed-out Senator Richard Alarcon of the San Fernando Valley has this one wrapped up.
District 41 – Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills) is term-limited. Though there are four serious candidates, this is mainly a horse-race between Julia Brownley, endorsed by Pavley and Sheila Kuehl, and Calabasas Mayor Barry Groveman.
District 42 – Paul Koretz (D-West Hollywood) is term-limited. Two main candidates: former L.A. City Councilman Mike Feuer and former West Hollywood Mayor Abbe Land.
District 43 – Dario Frommer (D-Los Feliz) is term-limited. The race here is getting…well, racial, in a district with high Hispanic and Armenian numbers. If Hispanics turn out more, give it to Glendale City Councilman Frank Quintero (endorsed by Frommer). If Armenians turn out more (more likely), expect Burbank School Board Member Paul Krekorian to take it.
District 44 – Carol Liu (D-La Canada) is term-limited. Though the primary has gotten a little muddy, former La Canada Mayor Anthony Portantino should still be the frontrunner.
District 45 – Jackie Goldberg (D-Echo Park) is term-limited, much to Republicans’ joy. Though a safe Democratic seat, this is one seat that will shift in representation from an openly lesbian liberal firebrand (Goldberg) to an Hispanic, whoever that may be. The battle seems close between Fabian Nunez ally Kevin De Leon and Christina Chavez, granddaughter of Cesar.
District 48 – Mark Ridley-Thomas (D-Los Angeles) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. Will it be bishop Edward Turner or attorney Anthony Willoughby? I have heard nothing on this race.
District 49 – Judy Chu (D-Monterey Park) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization. Her husband, Monterey Park City Councilman Mike Eng, should win.
District 51 – Jerome Horton (D-Inglewood) is term-limited and running for the Board of Equalization. Either Inglewood City Councilman Curren Price or Gardena City Councilman Steve Bradford will win.
District 55 – Jenny Oropeza (D-Long Beach) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. Warren Furutani is the favorite, though Long Beach City Councilwoman Laura Richardson may pull the upset.
District 56 – Rudy Bermudez (D-Norwalk) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. One of two Artesia City Council members, Sally Zuniga Flowers or Tony Mendoza, will likely win.
District 57 – Ed Chavez (D-La Puente) is term-limited. His wife, La Puente Mayor Renee Chavez, was supposed to be a shoo-in but in a major shocker lost the party endorsement to doctor Ed Hernandez. Which one wins on Tuesday?
District 58 – Ron Calderon (D-Montebello) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. His brother, former State Senator Chuck Calderon, is likely a shoo-in.
District 59 – Dennis Mountjoy (R-Monrovia) is term-limited. This is one of several Southern California GOP primaries (along with Districts 65 and 66) I really have no clue about.
District 61 – Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-Chino) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. Termed-out Senator Nell Soto of Pomona should win.
District 62 – Joe Baca Jr. (D-Rialto) is leaving early to run for the State Senate. His brother Jeremy should win here.
District 65 – Russ Bogh (R-Cherry Valley) is term-limited. No clue.
District 66 – Ray Haynes (R-Riverside) is leaving early to run for the Board of Equalization. Again, no clue who wins this thing on the GOP side.
District 67 – Tom Harman (R-Huntington Beach) is term-limited and resigning after winning a State Senate special election. His wife, Dianne, is the lone moderate in a field of conservatives. Does the split rightie vote elect her, or do cons unite behind Orange County Supervisor Jim Silva?
District 69 – Tom Umberg (D-Anaheim) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. This along with Goldberg’s seat will be pickups for the Latinos, with a tight primary between Santa Ana City Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez, former Loretta Sanchez staffer Armando de la Libertad, and Santa Ana City Councilman Jim Solorio.
District 72 – Lynn Daucher (R-Brea) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. Yorba Linda Mayor Mike Duvall has the stars aligned.
District 74 – Mark Wyland (R-Carlsbad) is term-limited and running for the State Senate. Marie Waldron, an Escondido City Councilwoman, has the endorsements and money.
District 77 – Jay La Suer (R-La Mesa) is term-limited. This is another confusing primary, pitting conservative activist Joel Anderson against nurse Nancy Beecham, who has most of the money.
District 79 – Juan Vargas (D-San Diego) is term-limited and challenging incumbent Congressman Bob Filner in the primary (CD-51). Mary Salas seems the favorite here (don’t know her job).
As you can see, every one of these open Assembly seats is safe for the incumbent party. In fact, I can only see two incumbents even possibly getting tough races this year, both Republicans: Shirley Horton of Chula Vista (AD-78 against George Gastil) and Bonnie Garcia of Cathedral City (AD-80 against Palm Springs Mayor Ron Oden). And even those two races aren’t sure to be competitive. Frequent GOP targets like Nicole Parra of Shafter seem to be getting by easy. Incumbency is the word in California.
Today’s California Blog Roundup is on the flip. I’m having a hard time keeping up: more people are writing as the election approaches. Teasers: Angelides, Westly, Schwarzenegger, Bowen, Paid-For Pombo, Francine Busby, Winograd v. Harman, Props 81 and 82, Jerry Lewis / CA-41, discussion of various reforms,immigration, and recent legislative actions.
Statewide Races
Paid-For Pombo / CA-11
Busby / CA-50
Winograd / Harman / CA-36
Other Electoral
Propositions
Reform
Immigration
Legislative Action
Miscellany
(Useful data — thanks! – promoted by jsw)
This is my final State Senate rundown before the primary on Tuesday.
District 2 – Wes Chesbro (D-Arcata) is term-limited. Expect former Assemblywoman Pat Wiggins of Santa Rosa to triumph on Tuesday and win this liberal district in November.
The rest below the fold
District 6 – Deborah Ortiz (D-Sacramento) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. Former Assemblyman Darrell Steinberg is a shoo-in.
District 8 – Jackie Speier (D-San Francisco) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Governor. This is a three-way sludgefest between San Mateo County Supervisor Mike Nevin, Assemblyman Leland Yee of San Francisco, and former Assemblyman Lou Papan of Millbrae. Papan is unlikely to win; the real question is whether a divided San Mateo vote aids Yee, or Gavin Newsom’s endorsement elects Nevin.
District 10 – Liz Figueroa (D-Fremont) is term-limited and running for Lieutenant Gov. Another three-way battle between two liberals (Assemblyman Johan Klehs and former Assemblywoman Ellen Corbett, both of San Leandro) and a moderate (former Assemblyman John Dutra of Fremont). Klehs is the “spoiler”.
District 14 – Chuck Poochigian (R-Fresno) is term-limited and running for Attorney General. The successor: Assemblyman Dave Cogdill of Modesto.
District 20 – Richard Alarcon (D-San Fernando Valley) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. Another tough two-way battle between two ambitious Latinos: Assemblywoman Cindy Montanez of San Fernando and L.A. City Council President Alex Padilla. Villaraigosa backs Montanez, Boxer and Feinstein back Padilla (I think).
District 26 – Kevin Murray (D-Los Angeles) is term-limited. The shoo-in is Assemblyman Mark Ridley-Thomas.
District 28 – Debra Bowen (D-Redondo Beach) is term-limited and running for Secretary of State. The primary is between Assemblywoman Jenny Oropeza of Long Beach and former Assemblyman George Nakano of Torrance. Nakano is favored.
District 30 – Martha Escutia (D-Montebello) is term-limited. Before the tragic death of Marco Firebaugh, this was a three-way, but now it is just between two Assemblymen, Rudy Bermudez of Norwalk and Ron Calderon of Montebello.
District 32 – Nell Soto (D-Pomona) is term-limited and running for the Assembly. Another tough fight between Assemblymembers Gloria Negrete McLeod of Chino and Joe Baca Jr. of Rialto.
District 34 – Joe Dunn (D-Garden Grove) is term-limited and running for Controller. This is the only Senate race considered competitive for November. In the primary, we have a bloody fight between Assemblyman Tom Umberg of Anaheim and Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa. In the general, either man has an uphill fight against Republican Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher of Brea.
District 38 – Bill Morrow (R-Carlsbad) is term-limited. Assemblyman Mark Wyland should win.
The only of these races that could well change hands is District 34, where Republicans have been eagerly registering new voters and where the Democratic primary is extremely bloody, with Correa getting support from Don Perata and Umberg with more money and name recognition (but also, gasp, a sex scandal!). All the incumbent Senators (Aanestad, Denham, Florez, Ashburn, Cedillo, Romero, Hollingsworth, and Ducheny) are safe.
As for the competitive primaries, my final predictions lie with:
8 – Nevin
10 – Dutra
20 – Padilla
30 – Calderon
32 – Baca
34 – Umberg (who will lose to Daucher in November)
ReadyReturn is a tax return program that simplifies the filing of tax returns. Kid Oakland wrote about this a while ago.
Legislation to permanently authorize ReadyReturn, a state program that prepares simple income tax returns, died without a vote in the Assembly.
Assembly Bill 2905 was proposed by Assemblyman Dario Frommer, D-Los Angeles, and was sponsored by state Controller Steve Westly.
ReadyReturn, a pilot project, offered free income tax returns last year to 50,000 Californians with uncomplicated personal finances.
AB 2905, or similar legislation, is required for the pilot program to become permanent. … Unable to muster the 41 votes needed, Frommer let AB 2905 die Wednesday night.(SacBee 6/2/06)
It’s a good idea. It especially helps low-income workers who often don’t understand their taxes and take them to paid preparation services. So, why do you think it died? Well, I’ll give you 3 guesses, and the first two don’t count:
Helping to lead the charge against AB 2905 was Intuit Inc., which sells Turbo Tax, a tax preparation software program.
We sure wouldn’t want Intuit to lose a few bucks. While Intuit might have put a more pleasant face on the tax lobby, keep in mind who is really behind this: H&R Block. ReadyReturn would put a crimp in their lucrative loan shark refund anticipation loan programs. Bill Lockyer is already suing Block for these programs that charge interest rates that can be as high as 700%! Similar providers such as Jackson Hewitt prey on the low-income market. The loans carry almost no risk unless they botch up the tax returns, yet they still charge astronomical rates.
ReadyReturn saved money for the Californians who most need the assistance, but the legislature chose to side with the large corporations who give their campaigns more cash. These companies can’t stand in the way of progress for ever. The bill should be passed as soon as possible.
In another primary battle involving a seven-term incumbent, Bob Filner is facing a challenge from two Latino Congressional hopefuls. Juan Vargas currently represents the 79th AD and is termed out this year. Thus, this is another term limits inspired fight. Danny Ramirez is a perennial candidate in this race, and shouldn’t be much of a factor this year with a serious Latino candidate in the race.
Filner has been one of the more liberal voices in Congress. On immigration he received an “F-” from the Americans for Better Immigration (that’s a good thing). He received an “A” From the NAACP, 95% by the League of Conservation Voters, 100% by NARAL, and a 100 from the HRC.
Hispanics, many of them recent arrivals to California, make up just more than half of the 51st District’s population. So while many Americans favor building a tall wall to slow the influx of illegal immigrants, not many of them live in the California district that would be most affected.
The demographics of the 51st District are, however, at the very heart of the primary challenge to Filner. Primary voters are being asked — and not for the first time — whether Filner’s good relations with his Hispanic constituency and strongly liberal voting record justifies his re-election, or if the fact that Filner is a non-Hispanic white makes him an impediment to Latino empowerment. (CQ Politics 6/1/06)
Vargas has run against Filner for this seat before. In 1992, when Filner first won, Vargas was a San Diego City Councilman, but lost his Congressional bid. So now Vargas is attempting to see if the gains in Hispanic voters in the district will be sufficient to win the seat. Filner is managing to get most of the endorsements from Latino organizations, and the split in any identity voters caused by Ramirez’s presence on the ballot should propel Filner to a comfortable victory. However, Vargas has run a decent campaign and he has a history in the district.
KQED’s Forum will focus on the Democratic primary for the Attorney General. Rocky Delgadillo is scheduled to appear. Streamed live and a podcast is available.
( – promoted by SFBrianCL)
The Field Poll came out today. It shows Westly to have a 1 point lead over Angelides(35-34). This is, of course, well within the poll’s margin of error. And given all the variability of the polls recently, it’s hard to know what’s going on at all. One thing is clear: voters are not sure what to think. 26% percent remains undecided a week away from the election. A little bit shocking given the expected high percentage of absentee voters.
Heading into the final weekend, the Democratic gubernatorial race between Steve Westly and Phil Angelides is a statistical dead heat, with a record number of voters still undecided, according to a new California Field Poll.
In the poll of likely voters for Tuesday’s primary election, 35 percent supported Westly and 34 percent supported Angelides. Twenty-six percent of voters said they are undecided and another 5 percent said they’ll vote for someone else.
The poll reflects an intense, contentious primary race between Westly, the state controller and a former eBay executive, and Angelides, the state treasurer and a former real estate developer. The primary has seen voters bombarded with negative advertisements in recent weeks, leaving many confused as to how to vote — if they choose to vote at all.(SacBee 6/2/06)
Check out the SacBee article it has several good graphics for the poll. Particularly telling is that Angelides has seen his lead in female voters fall to 1 point, while Westly still has a 4 point lead in male voters.
The negative ads between these two clearly have affected the race. It is a shame that it has to come to this. The Democratic Party should really think about getting some new consultants for these campaigns in the future. The retreads of yore are hurting the party with these Dem on Dem attacks.
The Poll HQ has been updated as well.
Well, the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), the LGBT lobbying organization, has lost another member, me. For some reason, the HRC thinks that the way to win is to endorse the establishment candidates over more pro-equality candidates.
Exhibit A: Joe Lieberman. The man said “I think homosexuality is wrong.” He has said several times in the past that he is against gay marriage. Now, I could understand if the man was running against some right-winger, but he’s running against Ned Lamont. Lamont has come out in favor of gay marriage. Lamont is an easy call here. See Parachutec’s HuffPo post on the topic.
But, Lieberman at least votes for Democratic leadership in the Senate. Under Democratic Leadership, the hate-filled Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) would never see the light of day. But the HRC likes to pretend that they support both parties. That’s preposterous! (I contained my language there…go me!) The GOP brought us the FMA, brought us gay-bashing as a means to victory. What more does the GOP need to do to convince the HRC that they don’t like gays? Perhaps a new law requiring a pink triangle on your shirt. That would be nice.
And so what does the HRC do in California? They endorse Mary Bono. Yup, that’s right, the widow of Sonny Bono who is running for re-election in CA-45:
There’s no question that a Democratic majority in Congress would do more to support equality. Even if Democrats win a majority, their margin will be slim. Republicans will still have votes in Congress – and power.
Case in point. In 2005, for the first time ever, a hate crimes bill passed in the House of Representatives. That only happened because more than 30 Republicans joined Democrats in the vote.
Rep. Bono was not only one of those votes, but she also co-sponsored the measure and pushed her GOP colleagues for their support. If any lobbying effort is going to succeed, you must have Republican and Democratic friends. Rep. Bono is one of those friends, and becoming a stronger friend each year. HRC
In my book, your friends don’t vote for taking funding away from D.C. for allowing gay adoptions. What we need is not 2 more years of a Republican majority. David Roth supports the LGBT community completely. To me, if you have one candidate who supports your goals completely, and one who does less so, you go with the one who supports you.
This is wrong. The HRC is wrong, and while I didn’t have them in my will for a million bucks, I will not be giving them any more money. The HRC owes no duty to incumbents, but to their members. They should remember that next time they start endorsing Republicans.