The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.

Lt.Gov

Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.

Controller

This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.

Treasurer

Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.

the san diego union tribune did an actual journalistic investigation (remember those?), found that repubbb congressional candidate jim galley is another one of those “do as i say, not as i marry or refuse to support my children”:

republican jim galley, who is running for congress as a “pro-traditional family” candidate, was married to two women at the same time, defaulted on his child support payments and has been accused of abuse by one of his ex-wives…

galley married his second wife, beth, in 1982 when, unbeknownst to her, he was still married to his first wife, terry. beth and galley divorced in 1990 after she sought a restraining order alleging abuse.

the child support was owed to his first wife.

= more =

of course, the repubbb has some excuses…he didn’t know he was still married to his first wife when he married his second wife, the child support was only in arrears for a few months (!) and the abuse accusations were only made to get him out of the house.

but wait, there’s more! more lies, that is…

during interviews, galley has touted his military service as an advantage over other candidates in the congressional race, saying he was drafted by the navy during the vietnam war. his web site states, “i was drafted it (sic) to the navy, serviced my time,” and then later joined the army.

galley’s military records, obtained by the union-tribune through a freedom of information act request, show he started his navy service april 29, 1974, and was discharged less than six weeks later, while in “recruit training.”

navy spokesman lt. william marks said the navy stopped the draft July 1, 1973, nine months before galley started his navy service…

after serving in the navy, galley’s web site states, he went to work for general motors, and then “because of massive layoffs in the ’70s i enlisted into the army.” his records show he did not enter the army until rebruary 1981. he left the army in december 1984.

his explanation for this discrepancy: “i got the dates wrong.”

yeah, that’s the ticket! and he’s married to morgan fairchild, too.

bonus “the name says it all” sentence, found in the same story:

dan “frodo” litwin, a san diego software project manager, is the sole libertarian in the race.

yessss, precious, we likes the software…

(Cross-posted on Daily Kos)

In 1994, Michigan Senator Don Reigle announced his retirement in the wake of his role in the Keating 5 Scandal. The two leading candidates for the Democratic nomination to replace him were moderate Congressman Bob Carr and the progressive State Senator from Ann Arbor, Lana Pollack. Like many voters across the country, I was fed up with the arrogance of power that had been displayed in recent years by the House Democratic leadership, and my political instincts told me there was no way an incumbent Democrat Congressman was going to be elected to the Senate in this environment. So, with these matters in mind, I decided to back State Senator Pollack. Boy, was I in for a political education.

Carr had the backing of the state party establishment, union leadership and his colleagues in the Congress, including my former Congressman, John Dingell. With Congressman Dingell’s endorsement, went the support of the District Party leadership and most of its activists. Carr eventually won the primary in a very close vote, but I sucked it up and, for the sake of the party, backed Carr and the rest of the ticket. Carr lost the November election to Spence Abraham. My concerns about nominating a member of Congress were borne out, but it didn’t matter because I became persona-non-grata for supporting Pollack for Senate and Debbie Stabenow for Governor during the primary season, even among people I thought were friends.

That was the point I nearly quit politics, but instead, I quit working within the party establishment structure, opting to pick and choose candidates to support and work for. And Debbie gave me a little sweet revenge by getting elected to the senate six years leader while no one ever again heard from Bob Carr and Howard Wolpe (the ’94 nominee for Governor). But a bitter taste remained in my mouth. It felt like all I was good for to the party was my labor and my money. “Make those phone calls and keep your mouth shut”. No wonder the party was such a shambles after 1994.

Why am I talking about this? Because now I live in California and we have this close, nasty primary for Governor and so many bad things can happen on Wednesday as a result. I’m asking all those who are passionately involved to take a deep breathe Wednesday morning (or evening depending on how close it is) and avoid doing anything rash. To those who backed the winning candidate, don’t gloat. Don’t rub your victory in the losers’ faces. For those who lose, don’t walk away. The race isn’t over and we still have Schwarzenegger to kick out in November and it’s going to take every ounce of strength to do it. If you’re part of the establishment backing Phil Angelides, don’t seek revenge on Steve Westly and his supporters. And to the Westly people, if your guy wins, reach out to everyone who supported Angelides.

Most importantly, on Wednesday, relax, buy each other a beer and listen to what the other has to say. Whether you win or lose, you all have something valuable to add and you all want a better California. Good luck, vote on Tuesday and I’ll see you all on Wedneday and November 7!