Tag Archives: Joe Dunn

Field Poll: 82 Shifting down, Speier Up

The down-ballot Field poll was released this morning. So, I’ll run down the numbers, starting with the Constitutional offices.


Jackie Speier has moved into a small lead over John Garamendi, apparently all those billboards aren’t paying off for him like he would have hoped.  Liz Figueroa has continued to slide into oblivion.  Currently, Speier has 30%, Garamendi 25%, and Figueroa 8% with 37% undecided. It was thought by some that Figueroa would act as a spoiler for Speier, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out.  Figueroa has only 7% of women and only 5% in Speier’s and Figueroa’s home region of Northern California.  She is a bit stronger in Southern California at 10%, but this is probably just due to Latino identity politics.  Speier’s large lead amongst women might push her over the top in a primary that is dominated by women.  She currently leads 33-21-7 on that figure.  On the GOP Side, Tom McClintock is running unopposed.

Attorney General

Jerry Brown‘s name recognition, (and a Time Magazine feature story didn’t hurt on that account), without much in the way of campaign spending, has allowed him to retain his large lead over Rocky Delgadillo.  Currently Brown has 51%, Delgadillo 24%, and 25% are undecided.  I would go deeper into the numbers, but Brown seems to be dominant in all the crosstabs.  On the GOP side, Poochigian is running without siginificant opposition.


This race has flown under the radar, with a huge 63% undecided.  Joe Dunn is clinging to the slimmest of leads with 19 points, while John Chiang has 18.  Unsuprisingly, Dunn is doing better in Southern California (21-14) and Chiang better in Northern California (25-15).  This one will probably get a lot fewer people voting on it that the gov race, and name recognition just might push a state senator over a BOE member.  But, at this point, it’s too close to call.  And on the plus side, both campaigns in this race have run great campaigns.  I’m excited to see either man win.  On the GOP side, Strickland has a 43-32 lead over Maldanado.


Bill Lockyer is running unopposed.  On the GOP side, Keith Richman is leading small government loon and current BOE member Claude Parrish at 18-17 with 65 undecided.

Secretary Of State

Deborah Ortiz narrowly leads Debra Bowen at 25-19.  However, this might be merely identity politics as 65% is undecidided.  Ortiz seems to be holding her home region of Sacramento and NorCal (28-15), but with undecideds so high, it’s hard to glean much from the poll.  And another thing, am I totally missing something, or does Ortiz not have a campaign website?  That would be pretty crazy, and if so I would definitely have to publicly give my support to Bowen.  C’mon folks, technology is a big part of that job, get with the 21st century.  McPherson is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Prop 82

Prop 82 has been crashing in support recently.  And the news today is not good either.  Currently it’s losing by a margin of 41 Yes to 46 No.  The scare tactics used by the No on 82 folks seem to be working.  And I must admit, I’ve heard several very progressive people admit that they are a bit nervous about voting for the program.  I think at some level people just don’t like instituting such a large program via direct democracy.  Also, part of this is the additional taxes.  Those on the right jsut hate government, those on the left seem to want to use those taxes for other purposes.  However, I think it’s going to be a close race for 82.  The SacBee notes that:

Despite the new poll numbers, supporters say they believe they will win. They expect to do well among Democrats, who will be more likely to go to the polls to vote in the gubernatorial primary and other hotly contested Democratic races, said Nathan James, a spokesman for the Yes on 82 campaign.

“We always knew this election was going to come down to the wire,” James said. “We have a number of advantages going into this election.”

But opponents of Proposition 82, including the California Chamber of Commerce, have been pushing the arguments that the program would be too costly and would potentially drive private preschools out of business.

Pamela Zell Rigg, president of the California Montessori Council, said opponents were hoping voters would turn against the measure as they learned more about it. (SacBee 6/3/06)

So, obviously turnout will be key in all these races. But for Prop 82, where both parties get to vote and Ds are skewed in favor of 82(53-33) and Rs are skewed against 82 (25-65), the “who” of turnout will be key.  If many Republicans stay away from what is an otherwise uninteresting primary election for them, it might allow 82 to pass.

The Financial Officers: 2nd Choice positions?

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

The L.A. Times  ran a story today about both fiancial constitutional offices, treasurer and controller.  In the treasurer’s race, Bill Lockyer is running unopposed in the Dem primary.  Initially he was planning a run for governor, but when he abandoned that for a run at the treasurer’s position it moved John Chiang from treasurer to Controller.  Joe Dunn left the AG’s race for the contoller’s race when Jerry Brown entered that race.  Quite the circle.

On the other side, Tony Strickland missed the filing date for the Congressional seat in his district and so decided a run for controller is the consolation prize.  Sen. Mauldanado was looking at insurance commissioner but backed off when Poizner announced his candidacy.

As for the GOP treasurer candidates? Claude Parrish, a BOE member Claude Parrish of Rancho Palos Verdes.  This guy is a nut job who wants to eliminate all but the “most essential” bonds.  And Assemblyman Keith Richman, well…he apparently has always wanted to be treasurer.

I must say, I like the odds for these positions to stay with the Dems.  After the merry-go-round ended, we are left with candidates in both races who are well-positioned to hold off the GOP nominees.  Both Chiang and Dunn bring a wealth of experience and either would excell as controller.  And, everybody knows Lockyer by know, which will be a huge advantage in the general.

As of the last major poll to have the down ballot races, the April Field Poll, Chiang and Dunn are locked in a dead heat (16-15 for Chiang, with a whopping 69% undecided).  On the GOP side, Strickland has the early lead at (23-14-61 undecided).  In the treasurer’s race Lockeyer is running unopposed, and Parrish, the nut job, has a 16-13 lead over Richman with 71% undecided.  As you can tell, not a whole lot of people are really keeping tabs on these races.

GOP Controller Race gets…well…ridiculous

It’s not a race that has been talked about much.  However, both the GOP and the Dems have competitive primaries.  It’s true, check out how much money the 2 Dems, Joe Dunn and John Chiang, have raised. The 2 GOP candidates, Strickland and Maldanado, should also be up there.  However, for some reason, Strickland isn’t up.  Maldanado, however, is trailing both Dems in fundraising…by a lot.

But the news today is from the GOP primary race, and it’s funny!  From the SacBee’s Buzz:

In a heated GOP primary battle for state controller, former Assemblyman Tony Strickland last week claimed his opponent, state Sen. Abel Maldonado, can’t keep track of his own money.

Strickland’s staff plugged Maldonado’s name into the controller’s database of unclaimed private property and found Maldonado has about $2,000 he hasn’t collected. Or, as Strickland put it in a news release, Maldonado is on “the list of people who have carelessly lost track of their money.”

On the contrary, said Maldonado’s staff. They said the senator has known “for over a year” that he has unclaimed property. …Maldonado has been teaching people how to find their property in the controller’s database and has left his own money in the pool so he can type in his name and show them how it comes up, Kise said.(SacBee 4/17/06)

I suppose if I was really interested in this race I could follow this up by trying to find an instance of Maldanado actually “teaching” people.  Personally though, even if I were a Republican, I wouldn’t be that concerned about this.  Mostly because the Controller’s job isn’t to actually do the accounting work himself, but rather to set priorities for the staff (some of whom, you would hope, are competent CPAs).  But if the Republicans really want to bash each other over this, I’m all for it.  I’m all for negative attacks amongst GOP candidates, not so supportive when it’s Dems attacking Dems…got that Angelides and Westly?

That being said, there is a lot for the GOP candidates to fight about.  Strickland has been paying himself, and his wife (who took his seat after term limits struck).  (Thanks CarlsbadDem and SDPolitics…see comment below)

Over a little more than five years, Tony Strickland and his wife, Audra, who replaced him as a member of the state Assembly, paid more than $138,000 raised by their supporters to businesses owned by them and a staffer living in their Moorpark home. An additional $20,000 in campaign money was deposited into a nonprofit organization run by Tony Strickland.
The Ventura County couple say they did nothing improper and that investigators have cleared them of wrongdoing.

Strickland, who as controller would manage and audit the state’s finances, produced a June 2004 letter from Ventura County prosecutors saying they looked at the transfers and found no evidence of criminal activity. The district attorney’s office review was set in motion by a citizen complaint.
The Stricklands’ political opponents say a dependence on donors not only to win the campaign, but also to increase their income, is a clear conflict of interest, even if not illegal.

“How could people be so arrogant to blatantly transfer money like this?” asked Jere Robings, a Republican activist from Thousand Oaks. “It is obvious they are trying to circumvent the law,” he said.(LA Times 4/13/06)

And perhaps that’s what those GOP candidates should be concerned about, not some $2,000 left unclaimed.