CA-11: McNerney continues to lead Pombo in Defenders of Wildlife Poll

(Also cross-posted at dKos and MyDD. The more people know about this race the better. jsw’s matching campaign is going towards some good causes. – promoted by SFBrianCL)

The Defenders of Wildlife, who are doing the only polling in the district, released their poll.  I’ve not been able to find a link, other than the email they sent out.  Keep in mind that the likely voter model in congressional districts is really tough.  Additionally, this is a rapidly changing district, with many commuters from the Bay Area moving into the district.  Finally, this poll has a large MoE at 4.9%. But, all those caveats aside, McNerney holds a  small lead over the long-time Congressman from Tracy:

11th=
CD
Vote Over Time

 

May 2006

September 2006

 

Jerry McNerney (D)

46%

48%

 

Richard
Pombo (R)

42%

46%

 

Undecided

12%

6%

 

That is great news,as Pombo still has higher name ID.  It appears that Pombo’s name is linked to oil, lobbyists, and “corportate interests”. 6 Weeks left, and the DoW has been working hard to make this a real pick-up opportunity for the Dems.  Pombo is truely one of the impediments to progressive causes, he is anti-environment and pro-corruption.  It’s a bad combination and he’s a bad Congressman for CA-11.

Full details of the poll from the Defenders of Wildlife email on the flip

UPDATE: I’ve posted the PDF of the poll here.

1. Pombo Trails McNerney in New CA-11 Tracking Poll by Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund

In an election cycle where voters are looking for change and incumbent Congressmen are in trouble across the country, that trend is clearly evident in California’s 11th Congressional district.  Based on a recent survey conducted among likely voters in California’s 11th Congressional District,[i] Republican Congressman Richard Pombo remains unpopular with voters and continues to be in real jeopardy of losing his seat.  With less than six weeks left to go before Election Day and only two weeks before absentee ballots are mailed, Pombo continues to trail his Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, in a head-to-head vote.  Furthermore, voters dislike Pombo personally and many believe he puts corporate interests over the public interests.

Despite being heavily outspent by Pombo and getting attacked in recent weeks, Jerry McNerney has successfully maintained his lead over Pombo since the last poll we conducted in May for Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.  Currently, McNerney garners the support of nearly half the electorate (48 percent) and continues to lead Pombo, who only attracts 46 percent of the vote.  The race is essentially unchanged from our May survey, though there are now even fewer undecided voters (only 6 percent), leaving Pombo with very little room to increase his support.

11th CD Vote Over Time

May 2006

September 2006

Jerry McNerney (D)

46%

48%

Richard Pombo (R)

42%

46%

Undecided

12%

6%

The main reason voters are not supporting Pombo is because they fundamentally do not like him on a personal level.  Virtually all voters in the district now know who he is (91 percent name identification).  A plurality of all voters in the district have an unfavorable opinion of Pombo (45 percent unfavorable) whereas only a third (36 percent) have a favorable opinion of their Congressman.  In addition, there are nearly twice as many voters who strongly dislike Pombo than who like him a lot (40 percent to 22 percent).  Voters also have overwhelmingly negative opinions of Pombo on specific attributes:

·  A solid majority of voters believes Pombo “puts corporate interests over the people’s interests” (52 percent say this describes him well, with 35 percent saying it describes him very well, and 33 percent say it does not describe him well);

·  Voters also believe Pombo “is too close to lobbyists” (46 percent describes him well, 29 percent does not describe him well); and

·  Voters think Pombo “is too close to oil and gas companies” (43 percent well, 31 percent not well).

In sum, this poll shows that Pombo remains in poor standing with voters in his district.  Voters in California’s 11th Congressional district do not like their Congressman.  As a result, they continue to support the Democratic challenger over the incumbent.  With time running out, Pombo is in real jeopardy of losing his seat.

Survey Methodology:  From September 24-26, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a survey by telephone among 413 likely voters in California Congressional District 11.  The survey’s margin of error is approximately plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Sac Bee Gets it Wrong, Endorses McPherson over Bowen

http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/31655.html

Appointed early in 2005 after former Secretary of State Kevin Shelley resigned under fire, McPherson has restored integrity, civility and order to an office that had descended into chaos under Shelley.

This is an unfortunate mistake from what I would otherwise view as the major newspaper of politics in this state. Somehow the certification of diebold voting machines that lots of people recognize as faulty isn’t a big deal for them. They say some nice things about his style, but McPherson’s substance is tainted.

(CA-45th) David Roth vs. Mary Bono, or Tell WHAT to WHOSE children?

( – promoted by SFBrianCL)

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting When Mary Bono first came to Washington, she made herself immediately useful to the House GOP leadership in its assault on Clinton.  Does anyone remember Susan Carpenter McMillan, pictured with Bono and Paula Jones?  {Shudder}  Mary Bono gave us “What do you tell your children?” back then, but we have yet to hear any similar parental concern over the House pages that her buddy Mark Foley covets.  Here’s Bono with Foley and Connie Mack as they yuk it up with Kelly Preston. What do you tell your children about Uncle Foley, Mary?  What’s that?  Still can’t hear you.  How about torture?  No?  Student aid?  Healthcare?  Why are you one of the worst for children and seniors?  Silence.  Still can’t find her, either.  Bono won’t debate, and David Roth told the 100+ supporters outside her office last Wednesday – don’t bother asking for debate, she’s clearly too frightened of a public airing of her record.  Just ask her to go home.  Had Enough?  H/t: Blue America and Howie Klein for these fabulous videos!

David Roth has a great new video from the campaign trail, as well.  And a stinging retort to the local GOP rag, The Desert Sun, who has a member of its editorial board on Bono’s finance committee, but somehow keeps forgetting to mention that in print. 
Here’s who David’s got: Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
And this beautiful family: Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

And the enthusiastic support of our local unions, Democratic clubs, teachers, mayors, 21st Century Democrats, Barbara Boxer’s PAC for a Change, and -hell, check the whole list.  David converts Republicans to his side on contact.  He’s that good.  Bono has incumbency, Abramoff $$$, and corporate fat cats on her side, but I believe that her constituent support is shallow.

I was filling up my scruffy Saturn in Palm Desert yesterday, and a cheerful blonde with a gleaming Escalade asked me about my Roth for Congress bumpersticker: “ROTH for Congress – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents United” it says.  “So what’s Roth?” she asked.  “Democrat,” I said, “he’s running against Mary Bono for Congress.”  “Oh, well, I’m a friend of Mary’s,” said she.  “I’ve heard she’s a lovely person,” I said, “I just believe her votes are all wrong, 90% in lockstep with a very bad leadership.”  So we chatted amiably, and found we agreed that Bono is bought and sold by big money, LOVES to be in Congress but isn’t entitled to that sweet job (it belongs to us), and that Roth’s positions are better for the country and the district.

But she’s going to Mary Bono’s upcoming fundraisers, I imagine she always has.  Bono’s supporters have little idea what she’s really up to in Washington, like most Americans, they don’t think about it much.  This one bristled a bit when I noted that Roth is an education expert, and would bring a stronger take on public schools and higher ed than Bono has.  (Bono cast the deciding vote to cut $14 billion from federal student aid, while whining that her $165K salary isn’t much when faced with USC tuition.  Bono’s wealth is maintained by Sonny Bono’s royalties added to her $165,000 Congressional salary.  This evidence that Bono Just Doesn’t Get It gets right through to parents I talked to today while walking the precincts in Indio.  But I digress.)

Mary’s friend shared Bono’s total lack of interest in public schools, “My kids are in private schools, and I’ve had it with public schools, they’re so bad, I don’t want to pay for any of it.”  Wow.  Rather than assail her selfishness and anti-American disregard for the public good, I assumed a spoiled Republican POV and asked her a question she would consider seriously:  I know what you’re saying, but what about when these kids leave public schools?  These will be our neighbors, our community.  What kind of neighbors will these kids be?” 

“Well, she’s a woman, and that’s great, you know.”  “Well, yes,” I said, “that is great, but just ask the other women we’ve got, ask Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, Lynn Woolsey and Loretta Sanchez, they’re all for Roth!”

She laughed, our cars were gassed up, and we smiled and went our separate ways.  If this is a typical Bono supporter, then Bono’s support is simply a matter of default, and a broad misapprehension of Bono’s legislative priorities.  She’s a Bushbot and obedient tool of the House leadership.  Bono is a follower, and this week her leadership is in meltdown.  Will she show her face in public around here?  Probably not, unless you pay big.  But we will get a real public servant to represent us Congress when David Roth wins.  Help kick Mary Bono’s complicit butt with your contribution here.
Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Crossposted at Daily Kos

CA-Gov + Down-ballot Races: Don’t Knows Dominating

LA Times has released their down-ballot polling data:.

Attorney General: 51% Brown (D), 34% Poochigian (R), 3% Other, 12% Don’t Know
Treasurer: 50% Lockyer (D) 26% Parrish (R) 3% Other, 21% Don’t Know
Insurance Commissioner: 43% Bustamante (D) 38% Poizner (R) 4% Other 15% Don’t Know
Lieutenant Governor: 42% McClintock (R) 41% Garamendi (D) 3% Other, 14% Don’t Know
Controller: 36% Chiang (D) 30% Strickland (R) 3% Other, 31% Don’t Know
Secretary of State: 35% Bowen (D) 33% McPherson (R) 3% Other, 29% Don’t Know

I see this as pretty good news.  In most of the races there is a strong don’t know category.  Most of the state’s independent voters will typically break for the Democrat.  So, a tied poll is probably a good thing for the Democrat.  McClintock, who has a one point lead, is ahead based on name recognition from the Recall.  I’m guessing 42% is pretty much his ceiling.  He’s pretty darn conservative, too conservative for this state.

Now, I’m not totally in love with the LA Times polls, they seem to poll to the right.  For example, the 13 point lead for Westly in the primary was an LA Times poll.  Their track record ain’t so hot. 

One other point, the Times also came out with their governor’s poll.  It has a 17-point lead for Arnold at 50-33.  As I said, this polls to the Right. But quite frankly 33% is a wildly low number for a Democrat in this state, even an unpopular Dem.  However, if Angelides doesn’t pick up some steam soon, there is a bit of a danger of turnout hurting Dem candidates.

Field Poll on Bush/Schwarzenegger

For all the money that the CDP put into tying Bush and Schwarzenegger, and all their self-congralatory praise, it seems that it hasn’t really sunk in for the general population.  This according to the most recent Field Poll release.

Californians’ view of the overall performance of President Bush remains in a very deep trough.  At present, just 29% of this state’s registered voters approve of the job Bush is doing as President, while 61% disapprove.  By contrast, voter opinions of Schwarzenegger’s performance have improved throughout 2006, with 48% now approving and 37% disapproving of the job he is doing as Governor. (Field Poll (PDF) 9/30/06)

Those ads where Arnold kept saying “Let’s all go out and relect George W. Bush” apparently didn’t work.  I actually prefer their more recent ads where they actually compare the policies of each, and maybe that will make a difference.  However, I haven’t seen any of those commercials on the air, so I don’t know what kind of buy they put behind that one.  If people aren’t getting the Bush-Schwarzenegger message by now, peraps we should work another tack.