That’s the impression I am getting after surveying the political and media landscape over the last few days. With the May Revise now two weeks away, the outcome of a long and contentious summer budget process is less clear than ever.

There is a growing recognition among Californians that new revenues are going to be needed to close the deficit if we are to continue having public schools. Health care, transportation, and other government services are all going to be impacted by this budget, of course, but it is education that has become the most high profile part of the budget. If Californians can be convinced to restore the relationship between taxes and services, as David Dayen framed it yesterday, it is going to happen because they will refuse to destroy our schools.

Whether Californians will be convinced – and what the details of a tax proposal will be – are at the core of what is “up for grabs” with the budget.

Today’s LA Times reports that Arnold has now embraced new taxes, sending his staff to negotiate not with Democrats but with business groups on what form this will take:

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger continues to say publicly that he will hold the line against new taxes, his administration is laying the groundwork for a possible tax increase.

Administration officials are soliciting advice from business groups and other special interests on how to propose billions of dollars in tax hikes that could help close a budget shortfall the governor now says is as large as $20 billion.

Schwarzenegger’s staff is exploring a range of options, including sales taxes on lawyer and accountant services, on high-end services such as golf lessons and personal-trainer sessions, and on takeout coffee and other prepared foods that are not taxed now.

The administration’s goal, participants in the discussions say, is to gather support for new taxes from a broad spectrum of the business lobby, giving the Legislature’s Republicans political cover to break their pledges never to vote for them.

More below, including how Hillary Clinton may be undermining a progressive revenue solution…

Arnold’s proposed new revenues are very much like those that Pete Wilson used to close the budget deficit he faced in 1991-92, when newspaper and snack taxes were used to raise the needed revenues.

The problem with this approach is that it is still nibbling around the edges of our structural revenue shortfall. Estimates are that the modernized sales and professional services taxes might raise as much as $9 billion, a figure that seems a bit high. And of course, even that would leave as much as $11 billion in deficit still to close.

The core of our revenue shortfall is a regressive tax system that hits the lower classes harder than the upper classes. California’s overall tax burden is 18th among the states, but our property tax rates are at #42. The failure to modernize property tax law, to revise Prop 13 to protect fixed income homeowners while making the wealthy and commercial property owners pay their fair share, is perhaps the major reason why California faces such enormous budget deficits, whereas other states face far smaller shortfalls.

And of course, nowhere does Arnold appear to be acknowledging his colossal error of repealing the restoration of the Vehicle License Fee, which costs our state $6 billion a year. A modernized sales and professional services tax and a pre-1998 VLF would bring as much as $15 billion in revenue, making legislators’ jobs this summer far easier.

The devil is in the details of course, especially in what we have to give up to get new revenues. These would be the right wing tax solutions I discussed last week, and the LA Times article refers to them again:

Before the governor raises taxes, should he go that route, he is expected to demand legislative support for spending restraints that would force the state to create a rainy-day fund with revenue windfalls it receives during good economic times. Business leaders have long pushed for such measures, arguing that they would curb runaway spending and bring some stability to state finances.

Business leaders are also lobbying the administration to use potential tax hikes as leverage for policy changes unrelated to state spending, such as changing workplace rules to allow employers to dictate when workers can take breaks. Political analysts were not surprised to learn that the governor was considering tax hikes.

Some continue to argue whether voters will even support new taxes at all. The recent PPIC poll has given ammunition to both sides of the argument, with Bill Cavala arguing it suggests new taxes are unlikely:

Bad news for California’s budget came in from the precincts today. The latest PPIC survey indicates that (1) voters don’t want to cut education’s budget; and (2) don’t want to raise taxes to avoid those cuts. Years of budget flim-flam – led by Governor flim-flam – have convinced voters we can simply ‘reorder’ priorities and get by….

With many of the gimmicks used to ‘balance’ budgets in previous short-fall years no longer available, and with a cash-flow problem that will crest this summer, things look bleak indeed for the new leaders of the Legislature. And they deal with these problems starting with a ‘favorable’ rating by the public of 22%.

I am much less pessimistic than Cavala. He seems to be falling back on the failed assumptions that Democrats have used over the last 30 years to evade action on our structural revenue shortfall – blame the voters for not supporting tax fixes. Reading the PPIC numbers I see a very different story – about half of the state believes new taxes are a good idea. Sure, we need 66.7%, but even half is a very good place to be in considering how widespread our state’s anti-tax madness has become. Democrats should use this as a starting point, not an excuse for inaction.

Unfortunately these efforts may have been undercut by, of all people, Hillary Clinton. Her embrace of McCain’s idiotic gas tax cut – which would save drivers a total of $30 for the whole summer while blowing a $10 billion in the already-stressed federal transportation budget.

By embracing the notion that tax cuts, not investment in public services, are the solution to economic distress, Hillary Clinton has delivered a major victory for the Club for Growth and Howard Jarvis Association and delivered a serious blow to progressive Democrats who are trying to restore the link between taxes and services, between taxes and a high quality of life.

Democrats in both DC and Sacramento need to unite on this matter, and categorically reject the Republican anti-tax framing that has done so much to produce this mess. It doesn’t make our job easier here in CA to have one of the Democratic candidates running around agreeing with the right-wingers on taxes.

Edited by Brian for space.  This article from Assemblyman Levine appeared in today’s LA Daily News.  Money quote here, full op-ed over the flip. By the way, Asm. Levine will be at the Long Beach Convention Center for a workshop on “Hot Topics in the Legislature” at 2 PM.

California students didn’t create this budget crisis, and their education and futures should not be sacrificed to solve it. Schwarzenegger and other state lawmakers must make California’s students a top priority. This is why the final budget agreement must include increased revenues as part of any approach to balancing the budget – or the dog days of summer will become the winter of our discontent.

Cutbacks would lead to bleak school year

By Lloyd Levine, Printed in the Los Angeles Daily News

**Assemblymember Levine (D-Woodland Hills;Los Angeles Co.)will join Dr. David Long, the Governor’s Secretary of Education and other panelists today in Long Beach at the California State PTA convention. They will discuss the proposed school cuts during a workshop on “Hot Topics in the Legislature” at 2 p.m. in the Long Beach Convention Center.

CALIFORNIANS are gearing up for the dog days of summer at the beach, lounging in the bleacher seats at Dodger Stadium and in summer-school classrooms.

That’s right, summer school – where many kids today are willing to give up their Boogie boards for books to improve a grade, jump on the math fast track or get physical education out of the way to take Advanced Placement chemistry in the fall.

For a good many California teens, summer school is usually the prep work needed to get into the college of their choice.

But Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed budget – which cuts $4.8billion in education funding – is throwing a wrench into summer school, and it’s not even June. Such slashing could cause big problems for college-bound students.

Some California school districts are already alerting their staffs that summer school will have fewer classes this year because of a bad state funding recipe. There are already on the books rules and restrictions that cover how school districts can spend their summer school money. When districts factor in the looming education budget cuts that Schwarzenegger is proposing, the summer-school resources get watered down. Unless school districts can extract the money from other places, many classes will be out this summer.

These cutbacks would come at the worst possible time, as the bar has never been set higher for students trying to get into college. Some students need to take summer-school classes in order to compete with UC-bound counterparts packing a 4.5 grade-point average.

There’s a chain reaction to all of this. The governor’s anticipated education cuts would also hit community colleges, so they might also not be able to offer summer-school enrichment courses for high school students. There is no certain fallback plan.

And the chain reaction continues into the regular school year. The governor’s anticipated school cuts could cause class sizes to get larger. That means Advanced Placement classes in history, chemistry and others could be cut at some high schools because AP classes are traditionally smaller.

California school districts can’t wait to finalize their budgets for summer school and beyond. They are preparing for 20,000 teachers, counselors and librarians to be laid off.

California students didn’t create this budget crisis, and their education and futures should not be sacrificed to solve it. Schwarzenegger and other state lawmakers must make California’s students a top priority. This is why the final budget agreement must include increased revenues as part of any approach to balancing the budget – or the dog days of summer will become the winter of our discontent.

Lloyd Levine, D-Woodland Hills, is a member of the California Assembly and a candidate for the state Senate.

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The failure of the Federal Government to provide universal and affordable healthcare has negatively impacted the health and financial viability of American families.  As a result, community-based organizations and non-profits have had to pick up the gauntlet.  Desert Women for Equality is one such organization.  DWE provides free mammograms to the uninsured and underinsured women of the Coachella Valley.

This is a Press Release from DWE:

Desert Healthcare District (DHCD) has awarded a $40,000 grant to Desert Women for Equality’s innovative and successful “We Care” Free Mobile Mammogram Program so that the organization can continue providing free mammograms to uninsured/underinsured women who do not have a doctor’s referral for the test.

DHCD is a governmental agency that was established in 1948 by the State of California to improve and support community health programs within a 457-square mile service area in the Coachella Valley. “The DHCD grant not only provides DWE with necessary funding to sustain and grow our program, but it also recognizes the viability of the program and the great need there is for the services that we are providing to the community,” said Barbara Barrett, President of DWE. “DWE was founded by a group of community-oriented women and has been largely funded and supported by the local community. Now DHCD has joined us in our effort ,and we are very grateful for their support. and we hope that we can establish a long-lasting partnership with them. We are also now investigating the possibility of expanding our services and of offering free prostate cancer screenings to the men of our Valley. We need to keep them healthy too,” Barrett stated.

The grant will pay for individual mammograms given within the District. The DWE mobile mammography partner, Physician’s Diagnostic Imaging, brings mammography equipment to various pre-determined sites in the Coachella Valley. Women are screened on an appointment and walk-in basis, not needing a doctor’s referral. Clients who require follow-up care are then referred to free medical clinics and treatment centers for further medical assessment and evaluation. Since June 2006, Desert Women for Equality has completed 564 free mammograms. In 2008, six clinics were scheduled in the DHCD service area, and three clinics were scheduled outside the District in the cities of Coachella and Indio.

The “We Care” program is in direct alignment with the District’s strategic objectives – target access to breast-cancer screening, improve access to primary health care underserved communities, and facilitate access to health education, disease prevention and comprehensive diagnostic and treatment services.

DWE has planned the next “We Care” clinic at the Indio Senior Center for May 14, 2008, and will also offer other clinics in Coachella, Palm Springs, and Thousand Palms later this year.

To make an appointment for any “We Care” Free Mobile Mammogram clinic, please contact the DWE office at 760-325-4701.  To make a charitable donation, please send your tax-deductible check to Desert Women For Equality, 555 S. Sunrise Way, Suite 212E, Palm Springs, CA 92262. For every $80.00 that you donate, DWE provides one woman with a free mammogram. Check out the website at desertwomenforequality.com for more information on DWE and its programs.

I’ll let folks draw their own conclusions and pick their own fights for the most part, but I thought this poll (link changed to pdf of Field Poll) was pretty interesting (favorable/unfavorable/net):

California Nurses Association/Nurses: 53/15/+35

California Hospital Assn./Hospitals: 33/30/+3

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger: 40/40/0

Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez: 20/29/-8

Chamber of Commerce/Business Groups: 25/36/-11

News Media: 28/46/-18%

Republican State Legislative Leaders: 22/48/-26

Health Insurance Companies: 16/55/-39

I will throw a few rather obvious ones out along with one that may be less so. One- people don’t care much for politicians. Two- they care even less for the media, which is interesting as the media keeps cutting back on news coverage. Three- they HATE insurance companies, which makes me wonder why anyone keeps trying to keep them in the equation.

Also, CNA’s numbers are pretty darn impressive. Some of that is that people just like nurses I would imagine. But average Californian on the street, if they have an actual opinion of CNA proper, it’s likely to be an opinion on single-payer. Which makes me think that, given the opportunity, people might be pretty supportive of single-payer.

(Cross posted at Living in the O.)

I was feeling a bit guilty today for not making it out to the May Day march, as I’ve done in years past, but I got lucky because just as I left work and crossed the street at 14th and Webster, two cops on motorcycles parked in the middle of the crosswalk. I looked east and saw a huge group of people walking towards me and could hear the chanting. They were led by a Teamsters truck:

There were literally thousands of people following, chanting in English and Spanish about worker and immigrant rights.

I followed as the crowd moved down 14th toward Broadway, until I got distracted by a few people with cases of water bottles handing water to the crowd. Then I saw that the water was coming from this van:

I have to say, I think this was a smart campaign move by Mario Juarez, who’s running against De La Fuente for Oakland City Council. I was surprised not to see a presence by any of the other city council candidates, though there were thousands of people there so I could have missed someone.

When we reached the corner of Broadway and 14th, I stepped up to the platform near the BART stairs and finally saw that the crowd reached on and on, for several blocks. My cell phone photos don’t do justice to the overwhelming size of the crowd, but it’ll give you some idea of what it was like…

Several police cars had blocked off the intersection at 14th and Broadway, which at 6pm caused quite a back up in traffic. The intersection must have been closed for about 15 minutes, as the crowd moved towards City Hall:

At that point, I stopped taking pictures, but I did get to enjoy the music of the Extra Action Marching Band and a group of native American dancers and drummers that rounded off the end of the march.

I hopped on my bus to get home a few minutes later and left feeling inspired and at least a little less guilty.

Like me, you probably thought this was a wet winter. It certainly was in January and February here in Northern California, where several major storms dumped a lot of rain into local reservoirs, and snow in the Sierras. There was even hope by late February that we might have had enough snow to make up for 2007’s drought.

Unfortunately those hopes have been dashed:

California just came through its driest March-April rain period – 2.3 inches of precipitation in the Sierra – since records began being collected in 1859. The biggest reservoir in the state, Lake Shasta, is at 75 percent of its average capacity for this time of year. The second-biggest reservoir, Lake Oroville, is at 59 percent.

State officials warned today that widespread water rationing was a very real possibility this summer. Another few years like this, experts say, and we might start running drastically short of water….

Water managers in the East Bay, Santa Cruz and San Diego are either considering or instituting water-rationing measures this spring, and they expect to tighten their mandates next year.

I would not be surprised if we on the Monterey Peninsula, dependent on the Carmel River and not hooked up to the state water system, face rationing this summer as well.

As the article goes on to explain, with an interview with Stanford (and former UW) historian Richard White, California has to make some major decisions about how to deal with its water future:

“There is enough water for people – just not enough for people and the agricultural system the way it’s set up now,” Richard White, a leading environmental historian, said as he hiked past one of Stanford’s two main reservoirs Saturday. “Like with so many things, you may have to make some choices. Hard choices.”…

White said the trouble isn’t that there are too many people or too much agriculture in the sprawling growing regions. It’s just that we expect too much of what we have.

“My guess is that something major will have to be done in the next 10 years or so, and it will probably take a drastic drought to bring it about,” said White, who also is co-director of Stanford’s Bill Lane Center for the Study of the North American West.

Arnold wants to ignore the problem and simply build more dams and canals to prevent Californians from making these hard choices. Although Lois Wolk helped deal a major blow to the Peripheral Canal this week, it and other backward plans will resurface.

Ironically, global warming might just be the kind of opportunity we need to make these major changes. Much of California’s water delivery systems were built over 50 years ago, on the assumption that the relatively wet climate of that era would persist, or was “normal.” As we now know, it wasn’t, and California has experienced 200-year megadroughts as recently as the 13th century. Global warming is already altering our rainfall patterns, and will force us to make the changes we have been for too long postponing.

Our watchwords for water solutions must be “sustainability” and “affordability” (as in keep private companies FAR away). Many California localities, like Monterey, have shaped growth around water supplies for many years now. This practice needs to be extended to the entire state, to ensure that growth and development happen with respect to, and not ignorance of, locally available water sources.

Ultimately we must also deal with agriculture. The food shortages experienced around the world and here in California show the value of locally produced food. But that is a different use of the land than the massive export-oriented agribusiness that characterizes California agriculture. We must now consider changing that set of practices, if our water supplies are to hold out, and if our people are to be properly fed.

Here are a few things I never got around to this week:

• Democratic Senators are asking for a real plan from Gov. Schwarzenegger about how to solve the prison crisis.  AB 900 passed a year ago with the promise of building thousands more beds to address prison overcrowding.  To date not one construction project has begun.  This is a complete shell game, and the courts are likely to act immediately in the face of such incompetence.  Just another reason why trying to build our way out of this problem was such a stupid idea.

• Not only did immigrant’s rights advocates rally in Los Angeles today, they were joined by businesses who want an end to workplace raids.  I actually believe in workplace enforcement to an extent, but business can be a powerful ally in reaching toward a comprehensive solution.  The crowd was smaller this year but I think there’s a more robust coalition for a breakthrough.  Voter mobilization is going to be the key.

• Others have mentioned the new poll numbers on taxes and schools, but I’ll say this – decades of anti-tax rhetoric has succeeded in dislodging the relationship between taxes and services.  People want education and other services to be funded but don’t want to pay for it.  The only way to restore that relationship is to… restore that relationship, by specifically explaining how America is worth paying for and turning the whole issue on its head.  Not a huge revelation, but thought I’d throw it out.

• Home prices continue to fall in LA and Orange County, and foreclosures continue to wreak havoc on the state’s homeowners, including Jose Canseco.

• I thought this was the most interesting study of the week:

It’s often said, “You are what you eat,” but new research suggests that where you eat may have a lot to do with it, as well.

In communities with an abundance of fast-food outlets and convenience stores, researchers have found, obesity and diabetes rates are much higher than in areas where fresh fruit and vegetable markets and full-service grocery stores are easily accessible.

“The implications are really dramatic,” said Harold Goldstein, a study author and executive director of the California Center for Public Health Advocacy, based in Davis. “We are living in a junk-food jungle, and not surprisingly, we are seeing rising rates of obesity and diabetes.”

Intuitive, and it’s a chicken-or-the-egg argument.  Convenience stores and fast-food outlets move to neighborhoods where people are more likely to only be able to afford convenience stores and fast food.  However, the researchers claim this holds across socioeconomic strata.  “Food environment” is something we have to think about.  Education would seem to be the key,

• Forgot to link George Skelton’s article on the potential for competing redistricting measures on the ballot.  My position on redistricting is well-known.  Skelton does segue into initiative reform, which is sorely needed.