The last two years have seen registration gains for the California Democratic Party.  The last two years have also seen registration losses for the California Republican Party.  

April 7th, 2006

Democratic: 6,646,082 (42.68%)

Republican: 5,382,707 (34.57%)

Registration Gap: 1,263,375 (8.11%)

April 4th, 2008

Democratic: 6,920,324 (43.54%)

Republican: 5,220,666 (32.84%)

Registration Gap: 1,699,658 (10.70%)

From the standpoint of statewide races, this is tremendously significant, since having more and more Democrats and fewer and fewer Republicans makes it just that much harder for a Republican to get elected in California.  Look at 2006.  Republicans thought that Ahnold could provide coattails for downballot offices.  In the end, only Steve Poizner managed to win, running against the hapless Cruz Bustamante.

But the topline numbers only tell you so much.  Ultimately, we want to know where our registration is increasing the most so that we know where the next pick-ups might be in Congress, the Assembly and the Senate.  In this diary, I’m going to look at the registration changes on a County and Congressional district basis.  I will look at the Senate and Assembly at a later time.

County Registration Gap 08

San Francisco: 45.36%

Alameda: 40.17%

Santa Cruz: 34.32%

Marin: 32.24%

Imperial: 29.62%

San Mateo: 27.36%

Sonoma: 26.64%

Los Angeles: 25.39%

Mendocino: 22.99%

Solano: 22.01%

Contra Costa: 20.90%

Yolo: 20.77%

Monterey: 20.27%

Santa Clara: 20.10%

Napa: 16.82%

Humboldt: 14.02%

San Benito: 13.64%

Lake: 12.28%

California: 10.70%

Sacramento: 10.51%

Santa Barbara: 7.38%

Merced: 7.25%

San Joaquin: 3.65%

Stanislaus: 1.38%

Alpine: 1.29%

Ventura: 0.79%

Del Norte: -0.81%

San Bernardino: -1.38%

Trinity: -1.95%

San Diego: -2.80%

Fresno: -3.10%

Butte: -4.88%

Mono: -5.80%

San Luis Obispo: -5.86%

Yuba: -6.33%

Siskiyou: -6.87%

Riverside: -7.74%

Tuolumne: -7.93%

Nevada: -8.40%

Calaveras: -9.54%

Kings: -9.75%

Plumas: -9.84%

Kern: -10.68%

Amador: -10.88%

Colusa: -11.46%

Tehama: -11.69%

Tulare: -11.71%

Sierra: -12.11%

Inyo: -12.51%

Madera: -12.66%

Mariposa: -14.25%

Glenn: -14.28%

El Dorado: -14.96%

Orange: -14.98%

Sutter: -15.35%

Lassen: -18.28%

Shasta: -18.40%

Modoc: -20.73%

Placer: -20.74%

Change in Gap between April 2006 and April 2008

Merced: 4.22%

San Joaquin: 4.05%

Riverside: 4.00%

Marin: 3.87%

San Bernardino: 3.78%

Orange: 3.71%

Monterey: 3.58%

Madera: 3.54%

Ventura: 3.41%

San Mateo: 3.23%

Santa Barbara: 3.14%

Nevada: 3.00%

Kern: 2.91%

Yuba: 2.88%

Fresno: 2.84%

Sonoma: 2.79%

San Diego: 2.78%

Sacramento: 2.68%

Solano: 2.68%

Imperial: 2.63%

Yolo: 2.62%

California: 2.59%

Santa Clara: 2.58%

Placer: 2.58%

Tulare 2.55%

Stanislaus 2.51%

Napa 2.51%

San Benito 2.51%

Alameda 2.42%

Contra Costa 2.41%

Sutter 2.38%

Mendocino 2.30%

San Francisco 2.28%

Santa Cruz 2.21%

Del Norte 2.10%

Butte 2.05%

Humboldt 1.97%

Los Angeles 1.92%

Alpine 1.80%

Mono 1.74%

Trinity 1.50%

Calaveras 1.31%

San Luis Obispo 1.21%

Amador 1.18%

Lake 1.17%

Inyo 1.09%

El Dorado 1.08%

Shasta 0.73%

Glenn 0.46%

Mariposa 0.36%

Plumas 0.20%

Tehama -0.01%

Siskiyou -0.32%

Colusa -0.34%

Tuolumne -0.54%

Sierra -0.61%

Kings -0.93%

Lassen -1.45%

Modoc -3.10%

Full disclosure: I work for the Courage Campaign

Local leaders gathered today outside the office of Mayor Jerry Sanders to present him with more than 2,500 signatures to the letter from San Diego Democratic Party Chair Jess Durfee calling for an investigation into Blackwater’s permit process.  There was a somewhat unexpected air of celebration to the event as it was announced yesterday that Mayor Sanders is calling for the city’s Chief Executive Officer to conduct a full review of the Blackwater permit process (of course now we’ll see what comes of it).

The stage was shared by Jess Durfee (who noted he knows a few things about vocational schools courtesy of a Master’s degree in vocational education), Courage Campaign’s Rick Jacobs, Humberto Peraza- district Chief of Staff for Rep. Filner, Francine Busby and Ray Lutz from Citizens’ Oversight Projects.

All the parties involved have been instrumental in the rapid and effective response to this new Blackwater situation.  Remember it’s been barely two weeks since the news originally broke of this new facility, yet here everyone was gathered to mark and celebrate a significant people-powered success story.

Today was a great opportunity to cement in no uncertain terms the coalition to Block Blackwater which has formed rapidly and forced action from the Mayor.  And we’re just getting warmed up.  There have been recent revelations that Blackwater is looking to expand operations at current facilities and open a new training facility in Idaho.  Why? Because they see the writing on the wall.  They know that Iraq isn’t going to last much longer, partly because they’ve behaved so criminally and partly because the war is such a debacle.  They know that their survival depends on diversifying and establishing new roles in a post-Bush/Iraq system.  It’s why they’re looking for a few good hundred million in new investment capital.  It’s because there’s no natural place for them to exist once they can’t get anymore handouts from the Bush Administration and their cronies.

Today was a victory. Tomorrow we’ll likely need another. But we’re developing the methods that win.