The primary reason Republicans continue to hold the state hostage and deny us a budget is they are afraid that if they vote for a necessary tax increase, they will face a primary challenge from within their party, either for their current seat or for another office in the future. All such a challenger would have to do is say “Joe Blow voted for a tax increase” and the challenger, flush with money from the Club for Growth, the Howard Jarvis Association, and the other usual suspects will take out the incumbent.

The only way to challenge that calculus is to suggest that these Republicans will face a greater backlash from voters than from other wingnuts. California voters, especially those in districts represented by Republicans, hold the most leverage in the current budget stalemate. And as the Conta Costa Times notes (h/t to Donald Lathbury), voters are starting to use that leverage as California turns on the Republicans:

Republican and Democratic members of the “Al-Costa Budget Coalition” — self-described as a group of more than 40 schools and nonprofits serving the elderly, people with disabilities, families with health problems and other residents of Contra Costa County and the Tri-Valley area — met this morning with Assemblyman Guy Houston, R-Livermore, to urge a resolution to the state budget impasse….

Livermore Valley Joint Unified School District board member Bill Morrison: “I’m a fiscally conservative Republican, but I cannot see any way out of this big hole we are in without some reasonable tax increases.”…

Mt. Diablo Education Association President Mike Noce: “Assemblymember Houston has to represent his constitutents, and polls show that the majority of the people in this district support new revenues.”

Houston is running for Contra Costa County Supervisor, a run that is being jeopardized by his participation in the Republicans’ hostage crisis. CoCo voters are certainly going to think twice about entrusting their local government services to such a reckless individual. Correction: Houston already LOST that race in the June election, and isn’t running for any other office. Which of course makes his adherence to the GOP hostage plan even more ridiculous.

California is ripe for this sort of thing across the state, especially in red districts. Voters in Fresno, south Orange County, and the exurbs all want good schools, hospitals, and roads. They understand that tax increases are necessary not just to balance the budget, but to maintain the middle-class, keep families afloat, and keep our economy alive. And they’re no longer going to take this destruction of their state lying down.

Republican extremism has finally separated them not just from reality, but from their voters. Protests are the necessary first wave. Democrats need to be out in front and actively building support and backing candidates in these red districts, like Gary Pritchard.

Lathbury’s parting shot is worth quoting:

If this thing has to be settled by the voters of California, expect Houston, along with Republican Assemblymember Greg Aghazarian, who’s running to replace outgoing Democratic Senator Mike Machado, and possibly Senator Tom McClintock, who’s running to replace disgraced Rep. John Doolittle, to be among the first casualties. Grover Norquist might not give two hoots about schools and health care, but many Republicans in our state are far less ideological. Indeed, the better question is, ‘How much longer will they remain Republicans?’

You wouldn’t think that anyone would look at the dysfunction that is the California legislature and use it as a model, but that’s precisely what the national Republicans have done in their party platform, as the eagle-eyed Matt Yglesias discovers:

Page 16 of the Republican Platform endorses a Balanced Budget Amendment “to require a balanced budget except in times of war” and then page 17 says that “because the problem is too much spending, not too few taxes, we support a supermajority requirement in both the House and Senate to guard against tax hikes.”

The next time you see some legislative Republican weeping crocodile tears about the impact of the late budget, understand that they consider it a success, all the way up to John Boehner and Mitch McConnell and John McCain.  They desire a balanced budget amendment and supermajorities to pass tax increases, so that no matter who holds the seat of power, spending cuts must be used as the only possible answer to any fiscal crisis or economic downturn, with no consequent way to reverse them after the downturn subsides.  This is what they want – they think a paralyzed government is the best possible solution.  In fact, if they could do away with the government itself – except for the cushy salaries for the lawmakers and their staffs, of course – then it would be absolutely perfect.

In practice, there aren’t enough votes to make the desired spending cuts, either, so the only recourse is borrowing.  So what the Republican wet dream really looks like is a perpetual mortgaging of the future, spending billions upon billions in taxpayer money for no material benefit.

When we do get the opportunity to overturn this at the ballot box, what has to be made clear is that Republicans want no part of governing.  They are hostage-takers, and far from this being a localized problem in California, it’s a national strategy to strangle government, and to lock in impossible burdens that constrain Democrats and Republicans alike.  There’s a name for professional hostage-takers, but I don’t think I need to tell you what it is.

By Randy Bayne

The Bayne of Blog

Let me start by saying that I am a supporter of single payer health care. It is the solution that makes the most sense in curing our health care ills and is the only system that offers a long term solution to availability, affordability and access. In short, it is the “gold standard.”

Single payer health care passed the California Legislature this past Sunday. It is a great victory for proponents of universal single payer health care, but was hardly unexpected. All the hoopla over its passage is fine, but now the real work begins — continues really. Single payer is still not law and in spite of all the hopes that Governor Schwarzenegger will have a change of heart and sign SB 840, it ain’t gonna happen. Just as he did last time, he is certain to veto it again this time.

To actually get single payer into law will take a new Governor, a Democratic Governor who supports single payer, in 2010. But then the dynamics change lower down the political food chain.

Legislative Democrats, in spite of their rallying behind SB 840, may not be as staunchly behind single payer as some would like to believe. The cynic in me — a very big cynic — says that this time and last Democrats felt safe voting for the SB 840s because they knew they could please the single payer crowd with their vote without the bill actually becoming law. They had a Republican Governor whom they could count on for a veto. With a Democratic Governor in 2010, who would likely sign such a bill, the legislature, even a Democratic one, may not be so quick to pass an SB 840.

This is my pragmatic view, a view I would like to be wrong.

But if not, we need to continue the hard work of advocating for single payer. We need to assure that Democratic lawmakers will stick with us, those who refuse are replaced with those who will, and we need to win a 2/3 Democratic majority in both houses of the legislature. Most of all, we need to continue educating the public.

I do not mean to diminish what has been accomplished. This year’s passage of SB 840 is a good victory. Ground has not been lost in the debate over single payer. We have successfully defended what we won two years ago. Now, let’s move forward.

The SacBee is California’s traditional font of conventional wisdom, these days embodied by the Dans, Walters and Weintraub.  When the Dans are laughing at your political posture, you have lost the CW.  And with today’s column, Weintraub is calling the Republicans out:

The most conservative Republicans in the state, the ones who occupy the state Senate (joined by the Assembly Republican leader), have finally shown us why they have been resisting the Democrats’ big, permanent tax increase proposal and the governor’s smaller, temporary one for the past two months.

Their answer: They want the state to borrow more.

Borrow, Borrow, Borrow.  The truth is that they don’t have any real solutions, and truthfully, the lottery “solution” isn’t one at all. The Republicans have picked up the Governor’s discarded lottery amortization plan and are trying to run with it.  However, it doesn’t even really “kick the can” to next year, as we couldn’t possibly get any money from the lottery plan this fiscal year. It simply is not based in reality. But even if the media is willing to accept that, and occasionally they are, the GOP’s budget is still not working.

Actually, Schwarzenegger’s plan – relying on a temporary tax hike and $10 billion in accelerated lottery payments – also pushes the problem into the future. But it does work for at least two years longer than the Republicans’, giving the state’s economy three years to start growing again and giving the Legislature time to figure its way out of this mess. The Democrats’ plan, with permanent tax increases on high-income earners and business, would probably keep the budget balanced the longest, at least until the next economic downturn.

I’m just guessing here, but the likely outcome for this year will be a sales tax increase.  It is a poor choice as it is fundamentally regressive, taxing those who spend more of their income at a higher percentage. So, if you live hand to mouth, well, be prepared to pay more in taxes, but if you’re barely consuming anything off your income, don’t worry, you’ll just pay a negligible amount in additional taxes.  It makes no sense to ask those among us who need the money to pay more.  Yet, that’s where we are headed. …probably…

But either way, the one thing that is clear is that there will be some sort of revenue increases for this fiscal year.  The Republicans now acknowledge there is no reasonable way to get around the need for additional funding for the budget. Now they must come to terms with their base. That they lied to them. That they sold them a bill of goods of the expectation of lots of services with no taxes.  That they care more about the Club for Growth’s agenda than the people of California’s agenda.

Oh, and there’s the other CW repository, Governor Blow up the Boxes, who is calling the Legislative Republicans out on this fundamental detachment from reality.

“Their budget is not fiscally responsible because it simply pushes our problems to next year,” Schwarzenegger said in a statement Sunday. “We were sent to Sacramento to solve problems once and for all – not kick the can down the alley for others to deal with in the future.”

All of this on top of Dan Walters’ column from a few weeks ago?  Instead of prolonging the inevitable, let’s just deal with this now. The Republican party in California has sold itself to the Club for Growth devil, and now it’s time to pay the piper.

Man, it’ll be good to have a Democrat in charge who understands the importance of progress instead of covering your ass and rewarding your friends:

“First of all, though it doesn’t help much this year, I think this process and the frustration many of us are expressing reveals what must be done next year.

We need to not only think about but begin planning for taking significant questions about state and public finance back to the people of California. And next year as your leader I intend to do that. I’m not going through this anymore. I’m tired of it. It’s unproductive. It does nothing for the way people view us.

You’re right Senator Aanestad, under the current state of the Constitution; it is a two-thirds requirement to pass a state budget. And I know that question has been taken to the people in one form or another. But maybe it has not been take to the people in the right form, at the right time. And so, be prepared next year. Whether it is through the legislature or by the initiative process, we’re not going to go through this anymore.

If Darrell Steinberg was in charge right now, Jeff Denham wouldn’t be in the State Senate.  Abel Maldonado would be hanging on for dear life.  And we’d have a 2/3 majority.  Because he would prioritize it.  He would design the entire year around achieving it.  Don Perata simply has failed in understanding what is crippling this state.  Steinberg gets it.  And finally, progressives and the legislature will be on the same page.  For now, we struggle with the failed perspective of the past.