Strickland’s Lead Cut in Half

(good part about this is that we’re under the mandatory recount window of .5% right now. – promoted by Dante Atkins (hekebolos))

There’s good news and bad news, and then some possibly good news again, and then some possibly bad news again.  The good news: latest vote counts have cut Strickland’s lead in half, down to just under 1,300 votes.  The bad news: the votes out of Santa Barbara County, Jackson’s strongest base, are pretty much all counted.  It’s all up to the provisionals coming out of Ventura County now; if they trend Strickland as the rest of Ventura’s votes have–or even just 50-50–Strickland will eke this one out.

The possibly good news: provisional ballots are usually new voters, and those are quite likely new Democratic voters who might be expected to trend our way contra the overall County trend.  The possibly bad news: those new Democratic voters often have a tendency to vote for the top of the ticket only, failing to vote for Democrats downballot.

What will end up happening?  It’s anybody’s guess.  The VC Star has more:

Elections officials in Ventura County began processing provisional ballots this week but are not expected to release the first results from those ballots until Monday.

In votes tallied thus far, Strickland has about a 5 percentage lead in the Ventura County portion of the district. Jackson would have to at least reverse that advantage among provisional ballots – perhaps unlikely, but something political observers say is possible given that many such ballots are cast by newly registered voters, who this year were predominantly Democrats.

With 401,864 votes now tabulated, Strickland leads by about one-third of a percentage point.

Looks like we’re in a for ride.  As painful as the wait is, though, it’s good to know that the democratic process is being respected.  Better to get the right result with a wait, than the wrong result too quickly.

Nearing The Economic Cliff

The unemployment statistics for October at the state level were released today, and as it turns out California lost the third-most jobs in the nation at 26,400.  Only Washington and Florida lost more.  This puts the unemployment rate in the state at 8.2%.  This is a 2.5% increase from one year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since 1982, the last major recession.  Worse, in regions of the Central Valley, that number is much higher.  Unemployment in Fresno County is 11.2%.  In San Joaquin County, 11.1%.  In Merced County, 11.7%.  In Tulare County, 11.8%.  And in Stanislaus County, 11.8%.  Those are desperate numbers.

The loss of income tax revenue along with the dip in property taxes thanks to cascading foreclosures is leading more cities to the brink of bankruptcy.

Now two more California cities – Rio Vista and Isleton – are considering bankruptcy protection as an option as they face large budget shortfalls and staggering debt.

While experts caution against ringing the alarm bells just yet, they do say tough economic times could push municipalities already on the brink over the edge.

“I think it’s quite possible municipal bankruptcies could become somewhat more common but will still be very rare,” said Jason Dickerson, budget and policy analyst at the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office. “There are more municipalities that will look at what it means.”

We need a massive fiscal stimulus as soon as humanly possible.  And that needs to include aid to state and local governments, particularly here in California.  We are right on the edge.

CA-04: Down To 329 Votes…UPDATE: Back Up To 1,793

Huge news in the continued counting of Charlie Brown’s race against Tom McClintock.  The latest round of counting has Brown within 329 votes as the provisionals, which tend to favor Democrats, get counted in the larger counties in the district.

Charlie Brown (Dem)    170,168    49.9%

Tom McClintock (Rep)    170,497    50.1%

There are still tens of thousands of votes left to count, and there’s a virtual assurance of at least a partial recount.  Tom McClintock has been sending his list these smug reports of the day’s counting, telling them how everything’s looking great.  I haven’t seen an update from him in a couple days.  Probably because this is shaping up as a replay of the 2002 State Controller race, when the late provisionals put Steve Westly over the top in his race against… Tom McClintock.

Extended races like this cost money to maintain staff and pay lawyers.  You can help Charlie out at the Calitics ActBlue page.

…meanwhile, Hannah-Beth Jackson is moving closer in SD-19.  That race is down to 1,283 votes.

…I guess a slew of votes came in from Placer County and widened McClintock’s lead in a big way.

“We’re not claiming victory, but we just think it’s mathematically impossible for (Brown) to win,” said Bill George, spokesman for McClintock.

George said the thousands of Placer County votes tallied Friday stretched McClintock’s lead from barely 300 votes to 1,793, with only about 4,500 more votes to count in the nine-county district.

Brown spokesman Todd Stenhouse said Brown would not concede, noting that thousands more votes remain to be counted, most of which are provisional ballots that “have been breaking very, very strongly for Charlie.”

“We remain committed to the same goals that we’ve been committed to all along and that is that every vote is counted in this historic election,” Stenhouse said.

California’s Sleeping Giant – The Enormous Organizing Opportunity

Here’s a great article about how California’s field operation helped Barack Obama win the Presidency.  It hasn’t been much remarked-upon in the traditional media, but I was fairly involved in this operation and I’ve mentioned some of the details before.  

The Obama campaign’s directive to the California operation was simple: keep up a presence but don’t spend money. Fewer than 20 paid staff members were hired in September (compared with 100s in battleground states), a handful of offices opened and a minuscule budget approved. So it may come as a surprise that the California team actually pulled off what can only be called a field operation coup: on election day, California volunteers got on their own phones and managed to make an astonishing 2 million calls into battleground states — a number that outstripped the calls made by all other Obama phone banks in all other states, combined. They called from coffee shops, from houses, from parks. They called from baby groups, from pajama parties, from book clubs. In the end, the state logged a total of 10 million calls between Obama’s nomination speech and his victory speech. It was a milestone achieved with very little drama, and one that is noteworthy not only because it is unprecedented, but because it nearly took the national campaign by surprise. How it was done may also provide some insight into what lies on the horizon, on the grassroots front, going forward.

10 MILLION calls.  Consider also that 4 million of them were in the last week of the campaign, as Chicago realized what a gold mine of volunteering and activism they had in California.  In addition, in the last couple weeks the campaign was using predictive dialers that increase the contact rate from 15-20% to around 90%.  And that, of course, only includes the volunteers inside the state; hundreds if not thousands went out into the swing states to canvass and organize there.

Read the whole article for a real inside look at the process.  There is no question that this could be scaled up to use inside California.  The tools are already in the hands of the organizers.  And what’s more, they were trained to be self-starters:

I have seen it reported that the campaign’s field success can be attributed to its vaunted email database of volunteers and donors. My experience tells me that would be inaccurate. While the campaign certainly generated heat by sending out mass emails, the real magic lay in the staff’s ability to carry out one of the earliest promises of Barack Obama himself — individual empowerment. Tapping key volunteers and asking them to reach out to their friends requires personal contact. Yes, that job was made infinitely easier by the advent of Facebook and email, and the campaigns remarkable use of its web site. However the real structure was not created by, nor can be reflected in, a database of names housed by a centralized campaign.

Yesterday, I heard that phone banks are forming in California to call voters in Georgia on behalf of Jim Martin, the Senate candidate who is in a tight run-off race there. I checked around, curious to see if the campaign was officially involved. The answer came back, no. Yet voter files are being sorted, lists are being cut, call sheets printed, data entered. Calls are being made. The idea that a muscle once flexed, can take on a life of its own has intriguing, almost science-fiction-like possibilities. Whether it signals something remarkable in the annals of grassroots politics, or is another false start, like my mother’s idea of ‘Home Headquarters’ in 1970, remains to be seen.

I’m part of one of these weekend phone banks for Jim Martin, tomorrow, in Venice.  The details for that one are here.  In addition, there are phone banks in Santa Monica all weekend.  Contact Deirdre Lightfoot at dlightfulwon-at-gmail-dot-com for more information.

There is really no limit to how these organizers can be used in California – to gain a 2/3 majority, to push progressive ballot measures, to elect a new Democratic governor.  It could change the face of California politics for a generation.