I’ve been wondering what the federal government plans to do if California really cannot pay our bills any more? Will they allow us to descend into further cuts to already bottom dwelling public services? Will we be forced into it by the Republican minority in the state Legislature? And more importantly, if we cannot come to an agreement, and we actually see the Republicans pull the trigger on the gun they have had to pointing at California for years, what will the feds do? Will there be a bailout? Must our state leaders crawl on glass or something to prove our desperate we really are?
Well, perhaps there is an indication in the situation with our revenue anticipation notes (RANs). There is indication that the feds might help out.
“We’re going to need cash-flow borrowing the likes of which California has never seen, at a time when market and economic forces are stacked against us,” said Tom Dresslar, spokesman for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer. “That’s a recipe for calamity.”
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A spokesman for the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., confirmed that Lockyer had met with Frank in late March, and that Frank was in the process of drafting legislation designed to aid states and local governments with problems similar to California’s.“There is something in the works,” said spokesman Steve Adamske, “and that should be drafted by the end of this month … there are several ideas being considered.”(SacBee 4/15/09)
RANs are the state’s version of commercial paper. The money that the state needs to operate comes in unevenly throughout the year, so we have to sell bonds based upon our expected revenues. Usually it works quite smoothly, but because of the credit squeeze and our poor credit rating, things aren’t expected to be as easy this summer.
So, we go a-calling on the feds to guarantee our loans or something else to get our credit moving. Perhaps this is revealing as to what will happen the next time we come a-calling. If the feds don’t back us now, well, our day of reckoning will come sooner rather than later. If they do help us out, perhaps the pattern, co-dependent as it may be, will continue.
Either way, it is important that we get this loans, but the tea leaves aren’t quite clear as to the future.
If California’s government collapses the state’s economy will collapse and their will be no US recovery. Hence the minority Republicans in Sacramento can destroy the US economy if they are enabled.
Time to call their bluff. All the Props (except legislative pay) will go down. Republicans will demand the state be destroyed. Democrats do the following:
1) Qualify majority rule initiatives on budget and taxes.
2) Pass majority rule fee increases with increased taxes on
top 1%, oil companies, split-roll (I think this can be
done with a majority vote–simply redifining ownership changes as when a majority of stock changes hands). Decrease taxes on middle class.
3) Schwartz will have to call a special in the fall as Reps won’t pass a budget even though there is money.
4) Obama is likely to weigh in on majority rule which should give the issue national prominence (and state prominence, more importantly). This should be enough to pass at least the budget majority rule, and, with the majority rule fee increases, keep California going.
Now, suppose none of this works out? Then we are back exactly where we started–caving into the 2/3rds and
implementing their “vision” for the state (“a boot stomping over and over into a human face”).
This is a rare historical moment when we can roll back the forces of reaction. 28 years of Republican rule and conservative idealogy have lead us to disaster. Time to fight back.