(Another great report on these numbers. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
37.72% |
39.63% |
R+1.91 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.84% |
41.88% |
R+6.04 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.72% |
39.35% |
R+1.63 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.64% |
40.56% |
R+4.92 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.70% |
42.38% |
R+7.68 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.97% |
41.96% |
R+3.99 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.41% |
44.87% |
R+15.46 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.38% |
40.36% |
R+8.98 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip.
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.05% |
44.10% |
R+11.05 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.46% |
33.09% |
D+14.37 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.91% |
47.58% |
R+15.67 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.94% |
46.13% |
R+17.19 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.61% |
33.15% |
D+16.46 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
58.98% |
14.74% |
D+44.24 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.62% |
21.13% |
D+32.49 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.82% |
33.58% |
D+9.24 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.59% |
29.65% |
D+16.94 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.81% |
40.15% |
R+5.34 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.93% |
38.80% |
R+0.87 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.84% |
42.30% |
R+5.46 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.04% |
39.22% |
D+2.82 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.31% |
36.66% |
D+9.65 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.91% |
40.77% |
R+4.86 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.56% |
38.65% |
D+0.91 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.86% |
41.40% |
R+5.54 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.84% |
40.02% |
R+3.18 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
37.90% |
40.35% |
R+2.45 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
36.11% |
41.83% |
R+5.72 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
37.14% |
41.08% |
R+3.94 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.82% |
41.25% |
R+8.43 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.19% |
43.49% |
R+13.30 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.89% |
41.68% |
R+10.79 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.71% |
39.88% |
R+9.17 |
O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.81% |
23.72% |
D+29.09 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.64% |
18.71% |
D+37.93 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.32% |
39.39% |
R+0.07 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-11 |
Tom Torlakson |
54.23% |
22.06% |
D+32.17 |
O+41.2 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.60% |
36.09% |
D+4.51 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.65% |
20.17% |
D+18.48 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.22% |
26.83% |
D+20.39 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.28% |
18.96% |
D+32.32 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.07% |
33.84% |
D+15.23 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.24% |
27.95% |
D+20.29 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.93% |
11.27% |
D+53.66 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
61.92% |
16.21% |
D+45.71 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.96% |
26.89% |
D+15.07 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.09% |
31.54% |
D+11.55 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.33% |
36.49% |
D+8.84 |
O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68
Related
What jumps out from these numbers is the real weakness in using PVI numbers or R to D comparisons.
Obama carried AD-70 by 3.9 points when the Republican registration advantage was 13.3 points. McCain carried AD-68 by 2.9 points where the Republican advantage was only 8.43 points.
Dreier’s a much stronger incumbent than Calvert, although Obama carried CA-26 by a higher margin than CA-44.
Nice work on compiling the numbers. Now let’s figure out what they mean and how we can use them.
If you look at the recall numbers from 2003 Schwartz took most of the districts–did this mean they were going to go Republican? Of course not.
The key question is how popular Obama will be in 2010 and that will tie to the economy. What we need to do is to run as Obama Democrats and nationalize the state elections in 2010, painting the Republicans as the party of know-nothingism, attacks on education, and torturers. Since the props are going down on May 19 we will need 2/3rds majorities in the Assembly (quite possible) and as close to that as possible in the Senate (26 Seats–Maladono can
be bought).