(More good stuff. Thanks! – promoted by Brian Leubitz)
With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.
Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!
And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.
Cross-posted at Swing State Project and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
37.73% |
39.58% |
R+1.85 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-04 |
Tom McClintock |
31.14% |
45.83% |
R+14.69 |
M+10.1 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.83% |
41.82% |
R+5.99 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.77% |
39.29% |
R+1.52 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.67% |
40.50% |
R+4.83 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.63% |
42.40% |
R+7.77 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.81% |
42.08% |
R+4.27 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.40% |
44.77% |
R+15.37 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.40% |
40.27% |
R+8.87 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.02% |
44.12% |
R+11.09 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.60% |
32.94% |
D+14.66 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.88% |
47.62% |
R+15.74 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.94% |
46.06% |
R+17.12 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.59% |
33.10% |
D+16.49 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
59.01% |
14.66% |
D+44.35 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.63% |
21.04% |
D+32.59 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.84% |
33.45% |
D+9.39 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.57% |
29.50% |
D+17.07 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.80% |
40.25% |
R+5.45 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.90% |
38.77% |
R+0.87 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.81% |
42.32% |
R+5.51 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.06% |
39.23% |
D+2.82 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.28% |
36.59% |
D+9.69 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.92% |
40.69% |
R+4.77 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.69% |
38.51% |
D+1.18 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.87% |
41.34% |
R+5.47 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.85% |
39.91% |
R+3.06 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
38.00% |
40.37% |
R+2.37 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
35.96% |
41.99% |
R+6.03 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
36.82% |
41.64% |
R+4.82 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.80% |
41.16% |
R+8.36 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.20% |
43.36% |
R+13.16 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.93% |
41.58% |
R+10.65 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.72% |
39.80% |
R+9.08 |
O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.80% |
23.71% |
D+29.09 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.66% |
18.67% |
D+37.99 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.33% |
39.32% |
D+0.01 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.61% |
36.04% |
D+4.57 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.61% |
20.17% |
D+28.44 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.27% |
26.75% |
D+20.52 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.22% |
18.93% |
D+32.29 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.08% |
33.78% |
D+15.80 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.22% |
27.88% |
D+20.34 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.92% |
11.25% |
D+53.67 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
62.00% |
16.13% |
D+45.87 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.94% |
26.85% |
D+15.09 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.08% |
31.46% |
D+11.62 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.38% |
36.29% |
D+9.09 |
O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68
Related
So frustrating. And the next round of elections come after re-districting?
I was hoping that Cathleen Galgiani, who is my rep. from AD-17, would run for SD-12. She does represent the Merced and Stanislaus portions of the senate district. The only thing is that we would have to protect AD-17 from going red if she ran.
Not to mention the problem this has with the symbolism of respecting civil rights of all humans….
CA-04
2008
Yeah, the district went for McCain, but the Republican Congressperson, McClintock, who squeaked by CBrown the Dem a half percentage point was dragged across the finish line by about 1700 votes of people who were voting for Proposition 8, the anti gay marriage prop funded by the LDS church and Ahmanson of Fieldstone the banker-developer-religious nutbar. Prop 8 got more votes in some areas than the Presidential Candidate, and more votes overall than anything else.
I know the district is completely blown off and conceded by the people in DC, but you’ve got all these other Republicans who won their districts by much bigger margins, and our district in 08 finally lost its Republican registration advantage, it’s now the Dems and the Decline to States, just barely.
Obama, last I checked, was not running for anything in California in 2010. The Congressman lives in Lungren’s district, giving them 2 reps to our none, and is funded out of SoCal. He is a global warming denier (as in it’s not getting hot, not what might be causing it) and votes neanderthal.
He compared gay people to dogs during the campaign, more than once- I’m straight, but I’m having a slight problem with this. Are we in the 21st century here or not ?
from the pre-election registration numbers (October 08) to now? That might give some hints to the post-election registration trends in the competitive districts.