CalBuzz has got the horserace covered and the latest poll shows Attorney General Jerry Brown leading SF Mayor Gavin Newsom 46-26. That leaves a lot of undecideds, and the mushiness is still unclear. That being said, Brown’s enormous name recognition and familiarity to older voters make for an excellent position at this point.
But it is early. In 2005 at this point, June 29, 2005 to be exact, one Phil Angelides was leading the Democratic Primary, which of course he did go on to win. On the other hand, that Field Poll (PDF) also had both Angelides and former State Controller Steve Westly defeating Arnold Schwarzenegger. We know how that went for Angelides, don’t we?
So while polls at this point do provide for interesting speculation, it is hard to put too much stock in them. They tell us what most of us would have known already: Brown has huge positive name ID and familiarity with older voters, and Newsom is connecting with younger voters while trying to make up the ID gap.