With Democratic leadership eager to get a water deal done, the legislature appears set to vote tonight on two water bills, with Speaker Bass saying members will “make history today” by approving a package. The “policy” bills, focusing on Delta restoration and conservation, have been technically split from the big water bond, but there remain fundamental political linkages. And as the day wears on, more and more opposition to these bills, and ultimately to the entire process, emerges.

As things stand now, there will be a $10 billion bond to construct “dams, regional water projects, and ecosystem restoration”, $3 billion of which goes to build dams at Temperance Flat and Sites, and to expand Los Vaqueros Dam near Livermore. Unlike every other water project in state history, these would be funded by taxpayers, and not solely by the users of these projects. They would also not be subject to separate legislative approval.

The policy bill includes the creation of a Delta Stewardship Council to help oversee the use of the Delta. A majority of its members would be appointed by the governor, and it would have the authority to approve the construction of a Peripheral Canal, subject to certain environmental thresholds that are currently unclear. As the Contra Costa Times explains, Westlands Water District – which has been driving this process by demanding to be allowed to cut in line ahead of other water users and to be subsidized to do so – is satisfied with the proposed language:

At the heart of the new policy is a framework for a canal to route water around the Delta, a prospect that Delta interests detest because it could curtail housing development, make it more difficult to farm and could harm water quality and fish by diverting a portion of the Sacramento River out of its natural watercourse.

The path to building a peripheral canal would be clearer and more certain, but it would also be more difficult. The bills would strictly require the canal’s vehicle, the Bay Delta Conservation Plan, to ensure its operation actually restores the Delta.

The provision has the support of the state’s largest irrigation district but has split environmental groups.

The Westlands Water District supports the legislation because, despite its strict language, it provides “a clear path” to a new way to move water around the Delta.

“We’re not certain we can meet (the requirements). We hope we can,” said Ed Manning, a lobbyist for the Westlands Water District in the San Joaquin Valley, in testimony last week.

The policy bill also includes some statewide groundwater measuring standards, and mandates 20% conservation of water, statewide, by 2020.

Key environmental groups, labor unions, and other Californians are already taking sides. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and California League of Conservation Voters (CLCV) are embracing the deal, with CLCV doesn’t think the deal is perfect but thinks it’s good enough to support at this time. On the other side, the Sierra Club opposes the deal, and Carl Pope denounced the process in a HuffPo op-ed.

Water agencies are similarly split. NorCal water agencies now oppose the deal, though most SoCal agencies, led by the mammoth Metropolitan Water District of Los Angeles, playing key roles in getting the deal done.

Of political significance, Artesia Democrat Tony Mendoza reports CTA is opposed to the water bond, likely to be joined by several other major labor unions who are rightly concerned about crowding out public services spending by adding to general fund debt service levels, with Treasurer Bill Lockyer warning 10% of the general fund could be going to service debt if the water bond is approved.

Not being in Sacramento, you should take my prognostications with a grain of salt (preferably salt from the western San Joaquin Valley, which has too much of it). But I would be surprised if this deal goes through. Unlike the budget, there’s no looming threat of statewide fiscal meltdown. Failing to approve a water deal won’t cause government to shut down, it won’t cut off payments to schools and workers.

There is considerable political pressure to do a deal, but there is growing pressure to not do a deal. CTA’s opposition is significant, and may give Democrats who might be inclined to back the deal some pause, especially those looking to move up to other elected offices in 2010.

Finally, there is the question of the electorate. Any water bond has to go before voters in 2010, likely at the November election. I have a very difficult time seeing voters approving a $10 billion water bond, especially considering that the state’s finances aren’t likely to be in much better shape.

More importantly, the water bond will come with significant environmental and policy costs that other similar bonds haven’t had. For example, I was a strong supporter of the Prop 1A bond last year that authorized $10 billion for high speed rail. But that essentially came with no costs and  no downsides. HSR creates thousands of jobs, generating new tax revenue and saving people money on their travel costs without negative environmental impacts. In fact, high speed trains powered by renewable energy help provide cleaner air and mitigate against global warming.

That doesn’t eliminate the financial questions, but it made HSR a far easier sell than a water bond that could produce major environmental damage. After all, the bonds to build a Peripheral Canal were rejected by voters at the 1982 election, for many of the same reasons as a 2010 bond might go down in flames as well.

Whether a deal gets done tonight or not, the torturous process, once again largely hidden from public view, that produced the deal is yet another sign of how broken our state government has become.

UPDATE by Robert: The Delta governing bill, SBX7 1, passes by a 29-5 vote. No roll call just yet. Sen. Steinberg’s press secretary, Alicia Trost, counters claims on Twitter that this is a deal done in the dark:

Water pkg has had 9 months of public debate, 10 full public hearings.  Cogdill bond bill has been around for 3 yrs.

Note the “X7” in the bill title. This is the seventh special session in the current legislature. Not exactly an argument for a part-time legislature, is it?!

…the Cogdill bond bill, SBX7 2, is currently under debate. Cogdill says we need this for when we have 50 million people in the state. Lois Wolk speaks against this, arguing we can’t add the debt load to the general fund. Ironic to see Republicans calling for profligate spending – IOKIYAR! Or, It’s OK If You Hired Sean Hannity To Whine On Your Behalf (IOKIYHSHTWOYB).

…Wolk says SEIU now opposes bond along with CTA, complains that Delta will have to pay into the mitigation fund – “like asking a crime victim to pay half the restitution. shame on you all.”

…Maldonado speaks in favor, says we’ve been talking about this for 30 years, we need bipartisan solutions, we have to do this even if some people think it’s unpopular, blah blah blah. Will Arnold pick him for Lt. Gov already and get him out of our hair? I can’t stand having this guy represent us. Why exactly should your Central Coast constituents, Abel, have to pay to subsidize Westlands or let SoCal sprawl?

…Maldonado isn’t talking about water, he’s running for Controller and gunning for Central Valley votes. He’s already decided that his Central Coast constituents can be tossed overboard for his own ambitions. And not for the first time.

…love watching GOP Sen. Benoit (Riverside County) almost trip over his contradictory wingnut talking points, justifying the now $9.9 billion water bond because of global warming “even though, uh, some of us, uh, might question that” (referring to global warming).

…Cogdill closes on the finances: “hope and pray” that in 5 years there is economic recovery and the money won’t be an issue. I see that hope and prayer are what pass for Republican financial planning these days.

…$9.9 billion water bond squeaks by 28-8 (needs 2/3rds). Some Dem noes include Mark Leno, Mark DeSaulnier, Lois Wolk, Pat Wiggins. Didn’t catch the full list.

…SBX7 7 up now, the water conservation bill, with some last-minute amendments. It would be great if this bill information was being updated in real-time for us out in the public. As far as I can tell, without having seen the recent amendments, this is a good bill.

…20% conservation by 2020 is totally doable, especially for urban users. No excuse for not doing so, no matter the specific problems with this water deal. Time for CA to stop wasting water. Too bad this is linked to a ridiculous water-wasting and Delta-killing deal.

…water conservation bill passes 25-13. On to the Assembly next. And I’m headed to sleep.