California Republicans seem to think 2010 will be a favorable year for them. If that’s true, then they’re going to have to wake up to the fact that the electorate fundamentally does not share their right-wing anti-government, anti-immigrant values, as shown by the USC/LA Times Poll:
Health care
Will country be better off because of health care reform? 52% yes, 36% no, 12% don’t know
Will you and your family benefit from the bill? 47% yes, 41% no, 13% don’t know
Would you vote for a politician who voted for the bill? 46% yes, 26% no
Immigration
Would you support or oppose…
Denying ER treatment and public schooling to immigrants and their children? 47% no, 45% yes, 8% neither/don’t know
Temporary guest worker program but no path to citizenship: 70% yes, 24% no, 6% neither/don’t know
Path to citizenship with fines, must learn English: 67% yes, 26% no, 7% neither/don’t know
Obviously this poll is imperfect – they neglected to ask about a truly progressive approach to comprehensive immigration reform, one that provides a path to citizenship without forcing the undocumented to pay fines or learn a new language.
The poll also showed strong approval ratings for President Obama (64 favorable, 33 unfavorable) and reconfirmed the low ratings for Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature.
Things get really interesting when the USC/LA Times poll looked at the governor and Senate races. The poll again confirmed that Meg Whitman has a small lead over Jerry Brown – 44-41 in this poll – but worryingly for Dems, the crosstabs show Brown is in very serious trouble with key Democratic base groups:
| Brown | Whitman | Brown | Whitman | ||
| Dems: | 58 | 27 | Reps: | 18 | 70 |
| DTS: | 38 | 39 | Men: | 43 | 44 |
| Women: | 38 | 44 | 18-29: | 38 | 42 |
| 30-44: | 34 | 45 | 45-64: | 44 | 45 |
| 65+: | 45 | 44 | White: | 38 | 50 |
| Black: | 45 | 22 | Latino: | 52 | 29 |
| Asian: | 34 | 41 | Liberal: | 66 | 22 |
| Moderate: | 44 | 41 | Conservative: | 17 | 68 |
32% of African-Americans undecided? Whitman leading among Millennial voters? Brown only has 66% of liberals? Jerry Brown’s sleepwalking campaign is in deep trouble here if he doesn’t start working to address these problems with his base.
Compare that with Barbara Boxer, who is in a much better position – although the poll did not test her against specific Republicans (Campbell leads Fiorina 29-25, with DeVore at 9), it does show her with a good lead over a generic Republican:
| Boxer | Rep candidate | Boxer | Rep candidate | ||
| Dems: | 71 | 12 | DTS: | 50 | 26 |
| Reps: | 13 | 72 | Men: | 45 | 39 |
| Women: | 50 | 30 | 18-29: | 57 | 23 |
| 30-44: | 50 | 27 | 45-64: | 46 | 37 |
| 65+: | 41 | 44 | White: | 41 | 42 |
| Black: | 75 | 7 | Latino: | 62 | 18 |
| Asian: | 58 | 22 | Liberal: | 76 | 10 |
| Moderate: | 51 | 30 | Conservative: | 19 | 64 |
The poll also showed support for marriage equality was 52-40, which strikes me as a tad optimistic but still another good sign of a trend moving in favor of equal rights.
Overall this poll tells me that Californians still want to elect Democrats – but that specific Democratic candidates have to show why they deserve to be elected, show the electorate that they will govern as Democrats and give voters something to get excited about. By delivering health care reform, Senator Boxer has done that. By sitting on his ass while Meg Whitman erodes deeply into his base, Jerry Brown is instead setting himself up for an unnecessarily difficult climb to win a third term as governor this fall.
Jeez, Jerry Brown is blowing it! He’s not even leading with young voters? He’s in trouble… And his campaign needs to change course ASAP if he actually wants to be Governor again.
I think you’re being a bit arrogant to state what a “truly progressive” immigration reform position is. I’m a “truly progressive” person and I disagree with the position that you have labeled as the “truly progressive” one.
You are certainly in your rights to have a preferred position but you are not to call it the preferred position for all progressives.
Can’t resist. Kermit V. Ms. Piggy.
Sorry. Maybe it’s the hair.
I’m not sure the poll numbers are actually bad, considering. Meg Whitman has spent a gajillion dollars on ads. Jerry Brown hasn’t done any campaigning for governor (at least, not for a couple decades). And a large portion of Whitman’s lead undoubtedly comes from undecided Dems and undecided blacks. If Brown even deigns to turn up to the election, they should rapidly swing back.
Which isn’t to say this isn’t worrisome. Far from it–Brown should be winning by 20 points. But I find it very heartening, all and all.
What the hell is up with the immigration numbers, though? It just shows me that I really will never understand the American people. Not the absolute levels–I can easily comprehend anti-immigrant sentiment, even if I find it ew. I don’t get the idea, though, that every undocumented immigrant should have a path to citizenship (“amnesty,” favored by 67%) but at the same time we should let child immigrants die instead of letting them use the emergency room (45%!) I don’t understand the logic that goes into that kind of stance.
That said, Brown’s campaign needs to have a better presence, actually let people know he’s running. And a lot of people might not realize Whitman is a Republican, she never mentions it in her ads and she talks a lot of game that some people buy.
“Denying ER treatment and public schooling to immigrants and their children? 47% no, 45% yes”
I suppose I can hope that the 45% just don’t really read or think about the question.
Could 45% of people really think that if an (presumably illegal) immigrant child turns up in an ER with a deep and dangerous cut they should just be kicked out to the parking lot to bleed to death?
But just the fact that they are so careless with their opinions is monstrous.
Whitman gives us no choice. The numbers bear that out.