There is a lot of work to do between now and November 2, but right now we are pretty much looking at an even race:
It's too close to call in California's Senate and gubernatorial battles, according to a new poll.
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a 48 percent to 44 percent margin over her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, but Boxer's 4-point advantage is within the poll's sampling error. Five percent of people questioned say if the general election were held today they'd vote for neither candidate and three percent were undecided. (CNN) Full results (pdf)
Care to see a 1990s style witch hunt against the administration? Well, you are set for a fun ride. Otherwise, it's time to get in gear and work for the Democratic ticket.
their gubernatorial and Senate race numbers do not include voters age 18 to 34.
Presumably they did sample them and they are included in the totals, but there was not enough respondents to break them
out.
Is the over/under 50 breakdown. Brown leads Nutmeg in the
over 50 (while Fiorina leads Boxer). Those over 50 remember Brown as governor, while those under 50 need to be reintroduced to him, which presumably the campaign ads will do. I think both races will eventually go Democratic, particularly if Obama continues to turn up the heat and make it an us versus them election.
We know this is a base turnout election, I don’t know why some blogs keep wanting to drive the point home that its going to be a close race. Its only close because Brown has proven to be a tightwad centrist in a country and even in this State a polarized electorate.
After the disappointment of Obama we want a REAL liberal and so does the core pool of Democrats. We’re just not excited about Brown, more cautiously optimistic.
I wouldn’t worry about the closeness of the poll, its all about turnout. Prop 19 will ignite the youth vote which is always hard to gauge before an election, the question always was during the Obama campaign was weather “flaky” young folk would show up and vote. Well they did and without they its likely we would be talking about President McCain.
They will show up, there’s enough BS going on in-state for them to show up.