LAT/USC Poll Finds Prop 23 Trailing, Prop 25 Passing

The recent LA Times/USC poll is a classic example of “I dare not hope this is true” polling. After giving Jerry Brown 13-point lead over Meg Whitman, today’s numbers on Props 23 and 25 are also good news for progressives:

Prop 23: 32% yes, 48% no

Prop 25: 58% yes, 28% no

I have to believe these numbers, like Brown’s 13-point lead, make this LAT/USC poll an outlier. Props 23 and 25 are almost certainly closer than this spread makes it appear. They have Prop 25 leading among every demographic group, including narrowly among Republicans and conservatives, and by huge margins among independents and moderates. Prop 23 similarly trails among most key demographic groups.

These results will only actually come true if we keep driving people to the polls. Courage Campaign (where I work as Public Policy Director) has a growing list of GOTV opportunities around the state. Take a look and see where you can contribute – and if you know of GOTV activities we don’t have listed, let me know and we’ll make sure it gets added.

8 thoughts on “LAT/USC Poll Finds Prop 23 Trailing, Prop 25 Passing”

  1. In many ways, voting for Prop 25 is the best thing that you can do for democracy in November.  The entire concept of majority rule has been turned on its head for years now because a minority has such a strong position in the creation of the budget.  

    Republicans may stutter something about higher taxes or fees if Prop 25 passes, but folks, we live in a democracy in which the majority rules.  I don’t really like the idea of preventing taxes from going up without a 2/3 vote, but we can correct that another day.

    I am very happy to see that a majority of Republicans support Prop 25.  It gives me hope that they see the very narrow victories that they gain during budget negociations are a huge price to pay for the damage that it does to our system.

    For nearly the same reason, I support Prop 20 and oppose Prop 27.  If democracy is important to you remove reapportionment from the legislative process (where everyone has a conflict of interest) and put it in the hands of an independent commission.  

    Reapportionment reform will not solve all our problems, but by supporting it, we show that our primary goal is not the narrow electoral victories that do so much damage to our system.  We want a strong, vital democracy–that that’s what we are asking Republicans to see in voting for Prop 25.

  2. The LA Times/USC gubernatorial poll was not an outlier, unless you’re just throwing the term out loosely. 52/39 is within the variation that can be normally expected in a race with a 48/41.5 trendline.

  3.   Prop 23 is going down, but industry is pushing for Prop 26, which would be a get out of jail free card for any

    pollution clean-up.  All efforts should be diverted to

    defeating this.

     Also, Prop 24 is likely to fail.  Why?  It is because

    (as a referendum initiative) it could not specify where

    the money is going (I listened to one of their adds–job killer, money going to Sacramento politicians).  Increases

    in revenue need to specify where the money is going.  Prop 21

    will go down because it hits drivers.

     If Prop 25 passes (I believe it will), Sacramento gridlock will all of a sudden be cleared up.  Progressives should spend this decade finding revenue sources for governmental programs (oil severance for UC, transportation companies for highway funds, split roll for schools, etc).  Not everything put on the ballot will pass, but some will, and we can redistribute taxation from the poor and middle class to the wealthy and industry.  I realize from a good government position this shouldn’t be done but we live in a second-best world, not utopia.

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