(More great stuff on redistricting California from cali_girl_in_texas – promoted by Brian Leubitz)
Here is my attempt at redistricting the California State Senate. With over 936,000 people per district, satisfying communities of interest becomes a bit more challenging. Here are the districts I ended up drawing.
Majority-White: 22
Majority-Hispanic: 8
Majority-Minority: 10
Safe Dem: 19
Likely Dem: 1
Lean Dem: 3
Toss-Up: 7
Lean GOP: 3
Likely GOP: 6
Safe GOP: 1
EDIT BY BRIAN: See the flip for the full run-down of the Senate districts in this proposed map.
Outer NorCal
SD-01: Coastal NorCal (Previously SD-02) (Noreen Evans)
Description: Similar shape to the old district, plus added Del Norte County and the westernmost part of Solano to satisfy district size
Demographics: 68.4% White, 16.1% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 69.1%, McCain 28.5% (SAFE DEM: D+16)
SD-02: Central Valley and Yolo County (Previously SD-04) (Doug LaMalfa and Lois Wolk unless she moves to the new SD-05)
Description: Similar to previous configuration only I added Yolo County to satisfy population size. Lois Wolk (from Davis and currently in SD-05) would be put into this district and would lose to LaMalfa unless she moved to the new SD-05.
Demographics: 71.8% White, 16.1% Hispanic, 5.5% Asian
2008 President: McCain 49.9%, Obama 47.9% (LEAN GOP: R+4)
SD-03: All of Marin, eastern San Francisco, and SE Sonoma (Mark Leno)
Demographics: 56.4% White, 17.8% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 6.7% Black
2008 President: Obama 82.2%, McCain 15.8% (SAFE DEM: D+29)
SD-04: Mountain counties along most of the Nevada border plus some Sacramento suburbs (Previously SD-01) (Ted Gaines)
Demographics: 80.8% White, 10.0% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 54.1%, Obama 44.9% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)
SD-05: Most of Solano and Sacramento, NW San Joaquin (Lois Wolk if she moves here from SD-02)
Description: Removed Yolo and included more of Sacramento
Demographics: 59.5% White, 18.2% Hispanic, 10.2% Asian, 7.2% Black
2008 President: Obama 53.4%, McCain 44.9% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)
SD-06: Sacramento and some inner suburbs (Darrell Steinberg)
Demographics: 50.3% White, 17.9% Hispanic, 14.2% Asian, 11.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.0% (SAFE DEM: D+12)
San Francisco Bay Area
SD-07: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond, Martinez (Previously SD-09) (Loni Hancock)
Demographics: 36.0% White, 24.2% Black, 18.5% Hispanic, 16.7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 86.7%, McCain 11.3% (SAFE DEM: D+33)
SD-08: Western half of San Francisco, most of San Mateo (Leland Yee)
Demographics: 46.4% White, 27.6% Asian, 18.3% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 75.4%, McCain 22.8% (SAFE DEM: D+22)
SD-09: Inland Alameda and Contra Costa (Previously SD-07) (Mark DeSaulnier)
Demographics: 67.9% White, 14.5% Hispanic, 9.3% Asian
2008 President: Obama 63.0%, McCain 35.3% (SAFE DEM: D+10)
SD-10: Western Alameda County and Milpitas in Santa Clara County (Ellen Corbett)
Demographics: 32.9% White, 31.4% Asian, 24.6% Hispanic, 6.1% Black
2008 President: Obama 72.7%, McCain 25.4% (SAFE DEM: D+20)
SD-11: Silicon Valley and Santa Cruz County (Joe Simitian)
Demographics: 58.4% White, 20.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 73.7%, McCain 24.2% (SAFE DEM: D+21)
SD-12: San Jose and part of Stanislaus County (Previously SD-13) (Elaine Alquist)
Demographics: 42.4% White, 31.0% Hispanic, 19.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 67.4%, McCain 30.9% (SAFE DEM: D+14)
SD-13: Stockton, Modesto, Merced (Previously SD-12) (Anthony Cannella)
Demographics: 50.0% White, 34.1% Hispanic, 6.8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 52.1%, McCain 46.2% (TOSS-UP: R+1)
Central
SD-14: Eastern Central Valley and northern half of Fresno (Tom Berryhill)
Demographics: 57.9% White, 28.7% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.6%, Obama 44.7% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)
SD-15: Central Coast (Sam Blakeslee)
Description: Still a Central Coast-centric district, only I removed Santa Cruz, put Monterey completely within the district, and stretched a little further into Santa Barbara
Demographics: 55.1% White, 33.9% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 57.0%, McCain 41.0% (LEAN DEM: D+4)
SD-16: Western Central Valley (Michael Rubio)
Description: Did some tweaking to keep it sufficiently Hispanic to satisfy the VRA
Demographics: 60.1% Hispanic, 24.6% White, 5.9% Asian, 5.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 55.6%, McCain 42.8% (TOSS-UP: D+2.5)
SD-17: Inyo County, Tulare, Bakersfield (Previously SD-18) (Jean Fuller)
Demographics: 57.0% White, 32.1% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 60.8%, Obama 37.4% (SAFE GOP: R+15)
SD-18: Remainder of Santa Barbara and most of Ventura (Previously SD-19) (Tony Strickland)
Description: This time I was able to keep Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley in the same district and not go over in population
Demographics: 58.5% White, 31.0% Hispanic, 5.5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 59.3%, McCain 38.9% (LEAN DEM: D+6)
SD-19: Antelope Valley, keeping Lancaster and Palmdale together (Previously SD-17) (Sharon Runner)
Demographics: 54.1% White, 27.2% Hispanic, 8.2% Asian, 6.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 53.3%, McCain 44.6% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)
Los Angeles/Orange County
SD-20: Hispanic side of the San Fernando Valley (Alex Padilla)
Demographics: 54.2% Hispanic, 30.4% White, 6.9% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73.2%, McCain 24.7% (SAFE DEM: D+20)
SD-21: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena (Carol Liu)
Demographics: 37.2% White, 32.8% Hispanic, 20.0% Asian, 5.2% Black
2008 President: Obama 67.3%, McCain 30.6% (SAFE DEM: D+14)
SD-22: From Monterey Park to Diamond Bar (Kevin De Leon)
Demographics: 53.9% Hispanic, 26.0% Asian, 14.8% White
2008 President: Obama 64.9%, McCain 33.2% (SAFE DEM: D+12)
SD-23: West Side L.A. without the Ventura portion (Fran Pavley)
Demographics: 70.4% White, 13.0% Hispanic, 9.4% Asian
2008 President: Obama 72.9%, McCain 25.4% (SAFE DEM: D+20)
SD-24: South Central: Culver City, Inglewood, Compton (Previously parts of SD-25 and 26) (Rod Wright) (Curren Price)
Description: Due to demographic trends, it looks like the black populations of the current SD-25 and 26 will be merged into this district, which means Curren Price and Rod Wright will likely be in the same district.
Demographics: 41.8% Hispanic, 41.7% Black, 7.9% White, 5.8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 89.7%, McCain 9.1% (SAFE DEM: D+37)
SD-25: South Central (Previously parts of SD-25 and 26)
Description: Here I took the Hispanic parts of the current SD-25 and 26. Either of Wright or Price may run here, but an Hispanic candidate is far and away the favorite here
Demographics: 61.4% Hispanic, 14.0% Black, 11.4% Asian, 10.4% White
2008 President: Obama 84.2%, McCain 13.8% (SAFE DEM: D+31)
SD-26: Downtown L.A., Whittier, Pico Rivera (Previously SD-24) (Probably Ed Hernandez)
Description: Hernandez’s home is in the new SD-22, though he may move and run here.
Demographics: 79.0% Hispanic, 11.4% White, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73.1%, McCain 24.8% (SAFE DEM: D+20)
SD-27: Beach Cities, Carson, and Palos Verdes Peninsula (Previously SD-28) (Ted Lieu)
Demographics: 39.3% White, 31.7% Hispanic, 16.4% Asian, 8.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 62.0%, McCain 36.0% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)
SD-28: South Gate, Norwalk, Artesia, part of Long Beach (Previously parts of SD-27 and SD-30) (possibly Alan Lowenthal and Ron Calderon)
Description: I shifted Long Beach to the coastal OC district and found that I had too many people in that one, so I shifted part of Long Beach into this district. Part of Lowenthal’s and Calderon’s districts are put here, so they may face a primary unless one decides to retire.
Demographics: 55.7% Hispanic, 18.2% White, 12.3% Asian, 10.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 70.9%, McCain 27.0% (SAFE DEM: D+18)
SD-29: Northern L.A. suburbs (Previously parts of SD-29 and SD-31) (Bob Dutton and Bob Huff?)
Description: In L.A. and San Bern Counties to satisfy population size, from Arcadia to my hometown Rancho Cucamonga. Huff’s home in Diamond Bar was shifted to the 22nd so he may move here.
Demographics: 43.8% White, 34.3% Hispanic, 9.3% Asian, 8.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 54.2%, McCain 43.8% (TOSS-UP: D+1)
SD-30: Fontana, Ontario, Chino, Montclair, Pomona (Previously SD-32) (Gloria Negrete-McLeod)
Demographics: 55.7% Hispanic, 25.0% White, 9.9% Black, 6.2% Asian
2008 President: Obama 63.7%, McCain 34.5% (SAFE DEM: D+10)
SD-31: Most of San Bernardino and in Riverside (Open)
Demographics: 64.2% White, 23.9% Hispanic, 5.2% Black
2008 President: McCain 55.2%, Obama 42.6% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)
SD-32: Coastal Orange County and part of Long Beach (Previously SD-35 and part of SD-27) (Tom Harman and Alan Lowenthal?)
Demographics: 69.3% White, 13.5% Hispanic, 12.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 49.5%, McCain 48.6% (LEAN GOP: R+4)
SD-33: Garden Grove, Anaheim, Santa Ana (Previously SD-34) (Lou Correa)
Demographics: 54.2% Hispanic, 23.5% White, 17.5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 54.6%, McCain 43.5% (TOSS-UP: D+1)
SD-34: Inland Orange County (Previously SD-33) (Mimi Walters)
Demographics: 53.7% White, 27.2% Hispanic, 13.9% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.1%, Obama 45.0% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)
SD-35: Riverside, Norco, Moreno Valley, Corona (Previously part of SD-37) (Open)
Description: Rapid growth in Riverside County led to this district being excised off the eastern end of the old SD-37
Demographics: 43.0% White, 38.3% Hispanic, 9.2% Black, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 55.4%, McCain 42.7% (TOSS-UP: D+2)
Outer SoCal and San Diego
SD-36: Most of the rest of Riverside County (Previously SD-37) (Bill Emmerson)
Demographics: 53.7% White, 36.9% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 49.6%, Obama 48.8% (LEAN GOP: R+3)
SD-37: Temecula, Southern OC, NW San Diego County to Carlsbad (Previously SD-36) (Joel Anderson?)
Demographics: 66.4% White, 21.4% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.5%, Obama 44.7% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)
SD-38: Imperial County and as much of Eastern San Diego as could fit (Previously SD-37 and SD-40) (Mark Wyland)
Demographics: 57.8% White, 31.2% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 53.2%, Obama 45.1% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)
SD-39: Northern San Diego (Christine Kehoe)
Description: Northern half of San Diego, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Del Mar, Lemon Grove
Demographics: 63.2% White, 14.9% Hispanic, 13.7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 56.9%, McCain 41.4% (LEAN DEM: D+4)
SD-40: Southern San Diego (Previously part of SD-39) (Juan Vargas)
Description: Southern half of San Diego, Coronado, National City, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach
Demographics: 42.4% Hispanic, 32.5% White, 12.0% Asian, 9.4% Black
2008 President: Obama 66.3%, McCain 32.0% (SAFE DEM: D+13)
I haven’t gone through this completely, but I did see that you have Lowenthal and Calderon competing. Lowenthal is termed out in 2012, and Calderon in 2014, so shouldn’t be a big issue there.
On another front, I think there might be an issue with numbering of these districts. I think you have to be careful on the numbers of the state senate districts, as only odd districts are up in 2012.
Brian is right the elections go with the Senate numbers not the people who are in the seats now….
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and taking the initiative to post this informative topic. I found your article interesting and summarizes the situation perfectly.
http://www.leeandlee.com.au/
If this is accurate, you best believe SB County Dems are going to raise hell over this bullshit! I’m tired of mikie-fickies trying to dictate what goes on our county. We are not going to roll over like some damn dog that wants its belly scratched. Oh hell no!! SB County Dems will come out in force against this map. You better believe it! How can you F*ck us Cali-girl!? You’re from Rancho! Times have changed!!!
It’s a shame one can no longer recommend diaries, this deserves it. Good work.
Story:
California’s 2010 census results to come out next week – By Matt O’Brien – Contra Costa Times
The U.S. Census Bureau next week will deliver the California results of the 2010 census, allowing a new statewide redistricting commission to begin the work of redrawing political boundaries.
The public release of census information will also give Californians a trove of data about how their cities, counties and neighborhoods have changed since the last decennial census in 2000.
By law, the Census Bureau must provide redistricting data to the 50 states no later than April 1. The bureau has been releasing each state’s census data on a rolling basis since early February. More than half of the states have already been released. The bureau announced on Wednesday that California’s information would come sometime next week.
The bureau in December released the total population of each state, which revealed that California — with 10 percent population growth since 2000 — will neither gain nor lose a seat in Congress.
Link: http://www.mercurynews.com/bre…