Obama Still Safe in California

President doing fine in head-to-head matchups

by Brian Leubitz

Barack Obama’s luster has worn off even here in California, with only 45% inclined to re-elect and 44% looking for somebody new.  The problem with that is the somebodies trying to run against the president seem far less attractive with a name attached.  In a new Field Poll, President Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-40 and Gingrich 55-35.

On the Republican front, yesterday’s field poll shows Romney barely edging Gingrich 26-23.  After the top two, the numbers drop off dramatically to Cain at 9% and Ron Paul at 5%.  Perry, Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman pull in 3% or less.

There are some other numbers in todya’s poll that show a continued lack of enthusiasm for the President’s campaign.  

“The good news for the president is once you put him up against a real live Republican, he doesn’t look so bad,” said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.

Still, DiCamillo said the poll’s finding that one-third of voters surveyed feel “very strongly” inclined not to vote for Obama, compared with the 26 percent who feel “very strongly” about casting a vote in his favor, is an “ominous” sign for the president. (SacBee)

Now, I don’t think that anybody seriously thinks California will be in play. After all, if that is the case, things will be looking remarkably bad.  However, Obama has used the state as a resource for money and field purposes.  A continued lack of enthusiasm could put a dent in both those categories.

Oh, and there is the fact that we’ll have a number of important ballot measures (see the previous post) in November to take care of here in California. Exporting resources might be harder than ever for the President, which might have a bigger impact on the race than a single poll.  However, I have a pretty strong suspicion that the Democratic base might get a little more enthused when presented with the stark choice of President Obama and the GOP nominee. The differences, while perhaps not as great as we would like them to be, are still quite visible.  California Democrats will certainly do there fair share.

11 thoughts on “Obama Still Safe in California”

  1. Not the dumbest article ever written, but the dumbest thing I’ve read today!

    What is your point?

    Obama CANNOT win relection without California.

    It is electorally impossible.

    No scenario exists for a Democrat to win the presidency without California.

    Having said that, what is the point here?

    Obama will get between 52-54% in a two-person race and 47-49% in a three-way race. Either way he sweeps all the electoral votes.

    If Obama loses California, that means he’ll have won Hawaii and DC and that’s about that.

  2. Polling in California for a Presidential race is unnecessary. If the race is close enough in California to make polling remotely interesting, the Republican is going to win.

    What is interesting is how many resources will be exported from California in the form of money and volunteers on phone banks identifying Obama supporters throughout the country.  I have no idea how you measure that, but it isn’t through a poll.

    Obviously 2012 will be a different campaign than 2008.  I think there will be far fewer volunteers, much more paid staff and paid advertising and fewer inspirational rallies.

    As I watch the clown show called the Republican Primary, I realize that one of them will be running against Obama. They are all so horribly flawed that Republicans will long for the days of the strength and power of the McCain campaign.

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