Budget, Jerry Brown

Brown and His Metrics: Stand Together or Fall Separately

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Governor releases poll showing measures would fail if all three on ballot

by Brian Leubitz

Of course, the question then becomes which measure you actually put on the ballot. Brown’s poll has some interesting figures on that:

Both Brown’s temporary tax hike — a half-cent rise in the sales tax coupled with increased levies on higher earners — and a proposed tax increase on millionaires sponsored by some unions score more than 50% on the poll. Brown’s measure is at 53% while the millionaire’s tax polls at 55%, according to a statement from Sacramento-based pollster Jim Moore.

The third proposed tax hike, an across-the-board income tax hike to fund public education pushed by civil rights attorney Molly Munger, lags with only 31% support.

But if all three appear on the ballot, the release states, none cross the 50% threshold. Brown’s wins 43% support, the millionaire’s tax 42% and the income tax 17%. (LA Times)

Munger seems not to be interested in backing off, despite what poll after poll shows: her measure really can’t pass. And, really, it should be no surprise. It increases tax increase for everybody making any amount over about $7750.  That really isn’t going to fly with any electorate really.

Now, as to the question between Brown’s measure and the millionaire’s tax, the issues become closer.  Both sides seem intent on their own measures making it on the ballot.  While Brown’s has considerably more resources to get on the ballot, there is still a strong chance of both making it.  Unless somebody backs off, we stand a chance of seeing all three measures on the ballot.

For reasons of confusion and principle, having three on the ballot makes it even tougher to get one through to 50%.  And at this point, I’m not sure the little discussion through the media is really working.

7 thoughts on “Brown and His Metrics: Stand Together or Fall Separately”

  1. I think the one thing that every Democrat can agree upon is that Munger’s initiative needs to go. If it does make the ballot, everyone should vote against it. Yes, the state needs more revenue, but no, we don’t need more regressive taxation.

    So then you have the fight between the Governor’s initiative and the millionaire’s tax, which is really a discussion about the consequences of current campaign finance limits. While if the governor’s proposal passed, it would be better than the current system, no Democrat thinks the governor’s plan is better policy and there is no more fertile rhetorical ground this year than getting populist. The problem is, the larger the campaign finance limits are, the less likely that politician wants to piss of the people who write the big checks. The governor has the largest limits in CA (more than 10X the limit for congressional candidates).

    That’s why, the further you get from the horseshoe, the more likely you are to prefer the Millionaire’s Tax over the Governor’s proposal.

  2. Am I missing something here ?

    I thought tax increases had to pass by 67%

    If this is true don’t ALL the Tax initiatives FAIL ?

    Normally, I would support the Munger initiative

    But, in this instance, I’d vote NO just to punish her supporters for bollixing up the ‘passable’ tax plans

    We NEED the revenue

    I hope Jerry can be persuasive

    Does anyone else think that a generation of mindless anti-tax rhetoric has had an effect on the California electorate ??

    It seems like a lot Californians want ‘Something for Nothing’  Want and Demand

  3. It’s a challenge to game out how multiple measures affect each other. Moore’s polling memo does not explain how they put them up against one another. Don’t know if you can trust the results or not.

    There’s no obvious reason people could not vote for both the gov’s AND the millionaire’s tax and let conflicting provisions settle themselves out. They need not be trading votes off each other.

    Millionaire’s tax DOES obviously have the wider appeal and the better chance to win. If we want to focus on winning, the others should drop out. At 31% there is no argument for Munger to continue.

    ——-

    re: the above comments:

    – NO you don’t need 67% to win any statewide measure, that’s local taxes/assessments only.

    – I do not understand the purported connection to campaign finance limits, Bob.

  5. Gov. Brown is absolutely right on this.

    Here’s just another example of how we progressives too often make the perfect the enemy of the good. Molly Munger and her supporters would rather see us lose any chance of getting the new revenue our state desperately needs just to make a political point.  

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