Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014.
SD-02 (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D)
SD-04 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) – currently running for CA-01, but will almost guaranteed be succeeded by another Republican.
SD-06 (Sacramento): Darrell Steinberg (D)
SD-08 (Sierras): Tom Berryhill (R)
SD-10 (Hayward/Fremont): Open; safe DEM
SD-12 (Western Central Valley): Anthony Cannella (R)
SD-14 (Fresno/Kings/Bakersfield): Michael Rubio (D)
SD-16 (Bakersfield/San Bern County): Jean Fuller (R)
SD-18 (San Fernando Valley): Open; safe DEM
SD-20 (Pomona/Ontario/Fontana): Open; safe DEM
SD-22 (West Covina/El Monte/Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)
SD-24 (Downtown/East L.A.): Kevin DeLeon (D)
SD-26 (Coast from West Hollywood to Palos Verdes): Ted Lieu (D)
SD-28 (Riverside County): Brian Nestande (R)
SD-30 (Culver City): Curren Price (D)
SD-32 (Gateway Cities and Buena Park): Open; safe DEM
SD-34 (Seal Beach/Garden Grove/Santa Ana): Open; safe GOP
SD-36 (San Clemente to Oceanside): Open; safe GOP
SD-38 (Most of San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)
SD-40 (Imperial County/Chula Vista): Ben Hueso (D)
Here are my ratings for the State Senate races. See the extended.
California’s 1st State Senate District – SAFE GOP
Geography: Northeastern corner of the state (Redding, Folsom, South Lake Tahoe)
November ballot: Ted Gaines (R-inc) vs. Julie Griffith-Flatter (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 59-32
Governor 2010: Whitman 55-37
President 2008: McCain 54-42
California’s 3rd State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Napa Valley (Petaluma, Vallejo, Davis)
November ballot: Lois Wolk (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 57-35
Governor 2010: Brown 60-34
President 2008: Obama 66-31
California’s 5th State Senate District – TOSS-UP
Geography: San Joaquin County (Stockton, Tracy), Modesto
November ballot: Bill Berryhill (R) vs. Cathleen Galgiani (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 49-42
Governor 2010: Brown 47-46
President 2008: Obama 53-44
Description: This will be one of the Senate races to watch closely, with two Assemblymembers facing off. Berryhill won twice in an Obama-voting district, while Galgiani recently came out as a lesbian and is vocal in her support for high-speed rail. Democrats have had a better history of winning victories in districts that included Stockton though.
California’s 7th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: Concord, Antioch, Livermore
November ballot: Mark DeSaulnier (D-inc) vs. Mark Meuser (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 52-41
Governor 2010: Brown 53-41
President 2008: Obama 62-35
California’s 9th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
November ballot: Loni Hancock (D-inc)
Senate 2010: Boxer 82-12
Governor 2010: Brown 83-12
President 2008: Obama 86-11
California’s 11th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: San Francisco, Daly City
November ballot: Mark Leno (D-inc) vs. Harmeet Dhillon (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 75-16
Governor 2010: Brown 77-18
President 2008: Obama 82-14
California’s 13th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: San Francisco Peninsula (San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale)
November ballot: Jerry Hill (D) vs. Sally Lieber (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 65-29
Governor 2010: Brown 64-31
President 2008: Obama 73-24
Description: This intraparty battle does not have much drama. Hill represents more of this district, so he has an advantage.
California’s 15th State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Silicon Valley (San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos)
November ballot: Jim Beall (D) vs. Joe Coto (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 61-32
Governor 2010: Brown 59-35
President 2008: Obama 68-29
Description: This intraparty battle has a much deeper split, with Beall hailing from the richer western side and Coto the poorer eastern side. Beall being a current member of the Assembly probably has an edge.
California’s 17th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: Northern Central Coast (Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo)
November ballot: Bill Monning (D) vs. Larry Beaman (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 54-28
Governor 2010: 56-38
President 2008: Obama 64-33
California’s 19th State Senate District – LIKELY DEM
Geography: Southern Central Coast (Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, Oxnard)
November ballot: Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) vs. Mike Stoker (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
Governor 2010: Brown 49-43
President 2008: Obama 60-37
Description: Jackson made it out of a bruising primary. Stoker came close in a Santa Barbara-based Assembly district in 2010, but with turnout at UCSB likely to be much higher, it is unlikely he would get much closer.
California’s 21st State Senate District – SAFE GOP
Geography: Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Victorville
November ballot: Steve Knight (R) vs. Star Moffatt (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-36
Governor 2010: Whitman 51-39
President 2008: McCain 50-47
California’s 23rd State Senate District – SAFE GOP
Geography: Inland Empire (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Hemet)
November ballot: Bill Emmerson (R-inc) vs. Melissa Ruth O’Donnell (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-37
Governor 2010: Whitman 50-40
President 2008: McCain 51-46
California’s 25th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: Glendale, Glendora, Pasadena
November ballot: Carol Liu (D-inc) vs. Gilbert Gonzales (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 51-41
Governor 2010: Brown 52-40
President 2008: Obama 60-36
California’s 27th State Senate District – LEAN DEM
Geography: Western San Fernando Valley, Eastern Ventura County (Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley)
November ballot: Fran Pavley (D-inc) vs. Todd Zink (R)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 47-46
Governor 2010: Whitman 47.2-46.5
President 2008: Obama 57-40
Description: Pavley’s district became much more Ventura-centric and less Democratic. Zink won more of the June vote, so the November vote might go more to Pavley.
California’s 29th State Senate District – SAFE GOP
Geography: Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Fullerton
November ballot: Bob Huff (R-inc) vs. Greg Diamond (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 54-38
Governor 2010: Whitman 53-39
President 2008: McCain 49-48
California’s 31st State Senate District – TOSS-UP
Geography: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley
November ballot: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Richard Roth (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 45.6-45.5
Governor 2010: Brown 48.2-43.1
President 2008: Obama 56-41
Description: This is the Senate version of the uncharted Riverside-centric territory with a known Republican entity.
California’s 33rd State Senate District – GUARANTEED DEM
Geography: Long Beach, South Gate, Lynwood
November ballot: Ricardo Lara (D)
Senate 2010: Boxer 69-22
Governor 2010: Brown 70-22
President 2008: 75-21
California’s 35th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: Carson, San Pedro, Torrance
November ballot: Rod Wright (D-inc) vs. Charlotte Svolos
Senate 2010: Boxer 71-20
Governor 2010: Brown 72-21
President 2008: Obama 77-20
California’s 37th State Senate District – SAFE GOP
Geography: Central Orange County (Orange, Irvine, Costa Mesa)
November ballot: Mimi Walters (R-inc) vs. Steve Young (D)
Senate 2010: Fiorina 58-34
Governor 2010: Whitman 52-35
President 2008: McCain 49-47
California’s 39th State Senate District – SAFE DEM
Geography: San Diego, Coronado
November ballot: Marty Block (D) vs. George Plescia (R)
Senate 2010: Boxer 49-43
Governor 2010: Brown 49-44
President 2008: Obama 60-37
My predictions are 13 DEM seats, 5 GOP seats, and 2 toss-ups. The other seats are 12 DEM and 8 GOP, so the best Democrats can do is 27-13, enough for 2/3 (though it is unlikely we will get there in the Assembly; I will post that diary later), and the best Republicans can do is status-quo 25-15. (Spoiler: Interesting that the best-case Republican scenario in the Senate is status quo, while the best case Democratic scenario in the Assembly is status-quo, 52-28.)