Here is the comparison of my 2012 predictions against the results. I know that not all the results have been finalized, but it doesn’t seem likely that any result will change at this point.

Most of my predictions were really close, though there were some surprising results where my prediction was way off, and some of the safe races had no polls at all, including some states with presidential polls (ie. Alaska).

State	My Prediction	Actual Result
Alabama	Romney by 19.23	Romney by 22.24
Alaska	Romney by 20.43	Romney by 13.95
Arizona	Romney by 6.84	Romney by 9.09
Arkansas	Romney by 22.87	Romney by 23.88
California	Obama by 19.92	Obama by 21.76
Colorado	Obama by 2.59	Obama by 4.98
Connecticut	Obama by 15.74	Obama by 17.58
Delaware	Obama by 26.09	Obama by 18.63
District of Columbia	Obama by 87.03	Obama by 84.01
Florida	Romney by 0.26	Obama by 0.86
Georgia	Romney by 6.71	Romney by 7.82
Hawaii	Obama by 36.69	Obama by 42.7
Idaho	Romney by 24.19	Romney by 31.87
Illinois	Obama by 18.81	Obama by 16.69
Indiana	Romney by 5.43	Romney by 10.59
Iowa	Obama by 2.79	Obama by 5.8
Kansas	Romney by 13.81	Romney by 22.26
Kentucky	Romney by 14.55	Romney by 22.7
Louisiana	Romney by 17.52	Romney by 17.2
Maine	Obama by 15.29	Obama by 15.1
Maryland	Obama by 22.39	Obama by 25.55
Massachusetts	Obama by 21.84	Obama by 23.12
Michigan	Obama by 5.18	Obama by 9.5
Minnesota	Obama by 8.34	Obama by 7.69
Mississippi	Romney by 12.06	Romney by 12.04
Missouri	Romney by 8.3	Romney by 9.62
Montana	Romney by 5.11	Romney by 13.66
Nebraska	Romney by 13.41	Romney by 22.36
Nevada	Obama by 3.64	Obama by 6.57
New Hampshire	Obama by 3.01	Obama by 5.56
New Jersey	Obama by 14.33	Obama by 16.9
New Mexico	Obama by 11.66	Obama by 9.88
New York	Obama by 26.87	Obama by 26.64
North Carolina	Romney by 0.46	Romney by 2.07
North Dakota	Romney by 19.11	Romney by 19.62
Ohio	Obama by 2.96	Obama by 2
Oklahoma	Romney by 29.59	Romney by 33.54
Oregon	Obama by 9.78	Obama by 12.14
Pennsylvania	Obama by 6.09	Obama by 5.02
Rhode Island	Obama by 22.98	Obama by 27.42
South Carolina	Romney by 7.87	Romney by 10.45
South Dakota	Romney by 6.65	Romney by 18.02
Tennessee	Romney by 13.95	Romney by 19.41
Texas	Romney by 14.9	Romney by 15.83
Utah	Romney by 33.45	Romney by 47.9
Vermont	Obama by 37.56	Obama by 35.6
Virginia	Obama by 2.05	Obama by 3.73
Washington	Obama by 12.05	Obama by 14.47
West Virginia	Romney by 12.99	Romney by 26.86
Wisconsin	Obama by 5.8	Obama by 6.71
Wyoming	Romney by 31.23	Romney by 40.82

2012 Governor	My Prediction	Actual Result
Delaware	Safe Markell (D)	Markell (D) by 40.75
Indiana	Pence (R) by 7.87	Pence (R) by 3.13
Missouri	Nixon (D) by 13	Nixon (D) by 12.06
Montana	Daines (R) by 0.5	Bullock (D) by 3.32
New Hampshire	Hassan (D) by 3	Hassan (D) by 12.09
North Carolina	McCrory (R) by 14.25	McCrory (R) by 11.49
North Dakota	Dalrymple (R) by 35	Dalrymple (R) by 28.79
Utah	Safe Herbert (R)	Herbert (R) by 40.62
Vermont	Shumlin (D) by 34.00	Shumlin (D) by 17.38
Washington	Inslee (D) by 0.5	Inslee (D) by 2.26
West Virginia	Tomblin (D) by 21	Tomblin (D) by 4.75

2012 Senate	My Prediction	Actual Result
Arizona	Carmona (D) by 0.5	Flake (R) by 4.81
California	Feinstein (D) by 19	Feinstein (D) by 22.78
Connecticut	Murphy (D) by 4.67	Murphy (D) by 12.2
Delaware	Safe Carper (D)	Carper (D) by 37.46
Florida	Nelson (D) by 7.43	Nelson (D) by 12.83
Hawaii	Hirono (D) by 18.5	Hirono (D) by 15.2
Indiana	Donnelly (D) by 3	Donnelly (D) by 5.16
Maine	King (I) by 18	King (I) by 12.18
Maryland	Cardin (D) by 26.09	Cardin (D) by 28.67
Massachusetts	Warren (D) by 4.67	Warren (D) by 7.32
Michigan	Stabenow (D) by 13.5	Stabenow (D) by 20.82
Minnesota	Klobuchar (D) by 30	Klobuchar (D) by 34.62
Mississippi	Safe Wicker (R)	Wicker (R) by 16.99
Missouri	McCaskill (D) by 6.25	McCaskill (D) by 15.52
Montana	Rehberg (R) by 1.13	Tester (D) by 3.5
Nebraska	Fischer (R) by 13	Fischer (R) by 16.34
Nevada	Heller (R) by 5.14	Heller (R) by 1.22
New Jersey	Menendez (D) by 18	Menendez (D) by 18.43
New Mexico	Heinrich (D) by 9.67	Heinrich (D) by 5.49
New York	Gillibrand (D) by 43	Gillibrand (D) by 45.43
North Dakota	Berg (R) by 5	Heitkamp (D) by 0.94
Ohio	Brown (D) by 6.14	Brown (D) by 5.31
Pennsylvania	Casey (D) by 5.14	Casey (D) by 9.01
Rhode Island	Whitehouse (D) by 25.5	Whitehouse (D) by 29.8
Tennessee	Safe Corker (R)	Corker (R) by 34.51
Texas	Cruz (R) by 21.5	Cruz (R) by 16.18
Utah	Safe Hatch (R)	Hatch (R) by 35.02
Vermont	Safe Sanders (I)	Sanders (I) by 44.31
Virginia	Kaine (D) by 1.57	Kaine (D) by 5.14
Washington	Cantwell (D) by 16.5	Cantwell (D) by 19.28
West Virginia	Manchin (D) by 39	Manchin (D) by 22.98
Wisconsin	Baldwin (D) by 2.67	Baldwin (D) by 5.57
Wyoming	Safe Barrasso (R)	Barrasso (R) by 54.07

2012 U.S. House	My Prediction	Actual Result
AZ-01	Paton (R) by 1.88	Kirkpatrick (D) by 3.7
AZ-02	Barber (D) by 5.63	Barber (D) by ?
AZ-09	Sinema (D) by 2.56	Sinema (D) by 3.7
CA-03	Garamendi (D) by 15	Garamendi (D) by 7.4
CA-07	Bera (D) by 1.25	Bera (D) by 2.2
CA-09	McNerney (D) by 1.25	McNerney (D) by 8.2
CA-10	Denham (R) by 1.13	Denham (R) by 7.6
CA-24	Capps (D) by 2.5	Capps (D) by 9.6
CA-26	Brownley (D) by 0.5	Brownley (D) by 3.4
CA-36	Bono Mack (R) by 0.63	Ruiz (D) by 2.8
CA-41	Takano (D) by 6.25	Takano (D) by 12.8
CA-47	Lowenthal (D) by 15	Lowenthal (D) by 10.2
CA-52	Peters (D) by 0.31	Peters (D) by 0.4
CO-03	Tipton (R) by 5	Tipton (R) by 12.4
CO-06	Coffman (R) by 4.38	Coffman (R) by 3.6
CO-07	Perlmutter (D) by 7.5	Perlmutter (D) by 12.1
CT-05	Esty (D) by 3.13	Esty (D) by 3
FL-02	Southerland (R) by 6.25	Southerland (R) by 5.4
FL-10	Webster (R) by 5	Webster (R) by 3.6
FL-16	Buchanan (R) by 10	Buchanan (R) by 7.2
FL-18	West (R) by 4.59	Murphy (D) by 0.8
FL-22	Frankel (D) by 3.89	Frankel (D) by 9.2
FL-26	Rivera (R) by 2	Garcia (D) by 10.6
GA-12	Barrow (D) by 4.25	Barrow (D) by 7.4
IL-08	Duckworth (D) by 8.75	Duckworth (D) by 9.4
IL-10	Dold (R) by 1.88	Schneider (D) by 1
IL-11	Foster (D) by 2.81	Foster (D) by 16.2
IL-12	Enyart (D) by 4.94	Enyart (D) by 8.6
IL-13	Gill (D) by 0.63	Davis (R) by 0.4
IL-17	Bustos (D) by 0.63	Bustos (D) by 6.6
IN-02	Walorski (R) by 12.5	Walorski (R) by 1.4
IN-08	Bucshon (R) by 10	Bucshon (R) by 10.3
IA-01	Braley (D) by 15	Braley (D) by 15.2
IA-02	Loebsack (D) by 10	Loebsack (D) by 12.9
IA-03	Latham (R) by 3.75	Latham (R) by 8.7
IA-04	King (R) by 3.44	King (R) by 8.6
KY-06	Chandler (D) by 5.19	Barr (R) by 3.9
MD-06	Delaney (D) by 5.5	Delaney (D) by 20.5
MA-06	Tisei (R) by 5.5	Tierney (D) by 1
MI-01	McDowell (D) by 1.31	Benishek (R) by 0.7
MI-03	Amash (R) by 11.25	Amash (R) by 8.6
MI-11	Bentivolio (R) by 6.25	Bentivolio (R) by 6.3
MN-02	Kline (R) by 15	Kline (R) by 8.2
MN-06	Bachmann (R) by 6.25	Bachmann (R) by 1.2
MN-08	Nolan (D) by 2.56	Nolan (D) by 9
MT-AL	Daines (R) by 8.67	Daines (R) by 10.3
NV-03	Heck (R) by 9	Heck (R) by 14.2
NV-04	Tarkanian (R) by 0.56	Horsford (D) by 7.9
NH-01	Guinta (R) by 5.31	Shea-Porter (D) by 3.7
NH-02	Kuster (D) by 4.85	Kuster (D) by 5.1
NJ-03	Runyan (R) by 10.63	Runyan (R) by 9
NY-01	Bishop (D) by 8.69	Bishop (D) by 4.4
NY-11	Grimm (R) by 13.38	Grimm (R) by 6.6
NY-18	Hayworth (R) by 4.75	Maloney (D) by 3.4
NY-19	Gibson (R) by 3.75	Gibson (R) by 6.8
NY-21	Owens (D) by 2.06	Owens (D) by 2
NY-24	Maffei (D) by 1.56	Maffei (D) by 3.6
NY-25	Slaughter (D) by 9.38	Slaughter (D) by 14.4
NY-27	Collins (R) by 2.06	Collins (R) by 1.4
NC-07	Rouzer (R) by 0.63	McIntyre (D) by 0.2
NC-08	Hudson (R) by 10	Hudson (R) by 8.2
NC-11	Meadows (R) by 12.5	Meadows (R) by 14.8
ND-AL	Cramer (R) by 12.25	Cramer (R) by 13.2
OH-06	Johnson (R) by 4.38	Johnson (R) by 6.6
OH-16	Renacci (R) by 1.88	Renacci (R) by 4.4
OK-02	Mullin (R) by 11.63	Mullin (R) by 19.1
PA-06	Gerlach (R) by 15	Gerlach (R) by 14.2
PA-08	Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25	Fitzpatrick (R) by 13.3
PA-12	Critz (D) by 1.88	Rothfus (R) by 3
RI-01	Cicilline (D) by 2.83	Cicilline (D) by 10.9
SD-AL	Noem (R) by 12	Noem (R) by 15
TN-04	DesJarlais (R) by 5	DesJarlais (R) by 11.6
TX-14	Weber (R) by 6.25	Weber (R) by 8.9
TX-23	Gallego (D) by 1	Gallego (D) by 4.8
UT-04	Love (R) by 8.19	Matheson (D) by 1.2
VA-02	Rigell (R) by 10	Rigell (R) by 7.6
WA-01	DelBene (D) by 5.25	DelBene (D) by 7.2
WV-03	Rahall (D) by 12.5	Rahall (D) by 7.8
WI-07	Duffy (R) by 6.25	Duffy (R) by 12.2
WI-08	Ribble (R) by 15	Ribble (R) by 11.8

There were a few races that turned out to be close that few had considered vulnerable (though I think CA-33 is questionable):

Close races not rated:	Result
CA-16	Costa (D) by 9
CA-33	Waxman (D) by 7.4
HI-01	Hanabusa (D) by 9.2
NE-02	Terry (R) by 2.4
NC-09	Pittenger (R) by 6.1

Looking ahead to 2014, the districts I consider vulnerable are those in which the margin was under 10%, though some of them could have been close because of new constituents following redistricting. Of course circumstances can (and will) change, and districts will be added or removed from this list between now and November 4, 2014.

Here are the Senate seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

State	Incumbent
Alaska	Mark Begich (D)
Arkansas	Mark Pryor (D) – possibly
Colorado	Mark Udall (D) – depends on the challenger
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts	John Kerry (D) – if appointed Secretary of State
Michigan	Carl Levin (D) – if he retires (he will be 80 in 2014) and depending on the Republican nominee
Minnesota	Al Franken (D)
Montana	Max Baucus (D)
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey	Frank Lautenberg (D)
North Carolina	Kay Hagan (D)
Oregon	Jeff Merkley (D) – depends on the challenger
South Dakota	Tim Johnson (D)
West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller (D) – depends on the challenger

Here are the governor seats I consider vulnerable in 2014.

State	Incumbent
Arizona	OPEN (R)
Arkansas	OPEN (D)
Colorado	John Hickenlooper (D)
Connecticut	Dan Malloy (D)
Florida	Rick Scott (R)
Illinois	Pat Quinn (D)
Iowa	Terry Branstad (R)
Maine	Paul LePage (R)
Massachusetts	OPEN (D)
Minnesota	Mark Dayton (D)
Nevada	Brian Sandoval (R)
New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan (D)
Ohio	John Kasich (R)
Oregon	John Kitzhaber (D)
Pennsylvania	Tom Corbett (R)
Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee (I)
Wisconsin	Scott Walker (R)